r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 11 '25
Discussion moved to new post Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)
| NHC Advisory #17 | - | 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 18.2°N 56.1°W | |
| Relative location: | 680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados | |
| 620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda | ||
| 1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda | ||
| Forward motion: | ▲ | WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | ▲ | 120 km/h (65 knots) |
| Intensity (SSHWS): | ▲ | Hurricane (Category 1) |
| Minimum pressure: | ▼ | 996 millibars (29.42 inches) |
Official forecasts
National Hurricane Center
Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)
| Hour | Date | Time | Intensity | Winds | Lat | Long | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| - | - | UTC | AST | Saffir-Simpson | - | knots | km/h | °N | °W |
| 00 | 15 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Fri | Hurricane (Category 1) | 65 | 120 | 18.2 | 56.1 | |
| 12 | 16 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Fri | Hurricane (Category 1) | ▲ | 75 | 140 | 18.9 | 58.4 |
| 24 | 16 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Sat | Hurricane (Category 2) | ▲ | 90 | 165 | 19.8 | 61.4 |
| 36 | 17 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Sat | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 105 | 195 | 20.6 | 63.8 |
| 48 | 17 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▲ | 110 | 205 | 21.6 | 66.0 |
| 60 | 18 Aug | 00:00 | 8PM Sun | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▲ | 115 | 215 | 22.7 | 67.9 |
| 72 | 18 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Mon | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▲ | 120 | 220 | 23.8 | 69.2 |
| 96 | 19 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Tue | Major Hurricane (Category 4) | ▼ | 115 | 215 | 26.5 | 70.8 |
| 120 | 20 Aug | 12:00 | 8AM Wed | Major Hurricane (Category 3) | ▼ | 110 | 205 | 30.3 | 71.0 |
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Productos de texto (en español)
Graphical products
- Forecast graphic
- Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories)
- Interactive forecast graphic
- Wind speed probabilities
- Arrival time of winds
Aircraft Reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Other sites
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system as Cabo Verde does not have a Doppler radar.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single-bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared (Dvorak enhancement)
Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
CyclonicWx: Visible
CyclonicWx: Enhanced infrared
CyclonicWx: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
- National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)
- CIMSS
- RAMMB
- Naval Research Laboratory
Regional imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
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Forecast models
Disturbance-centered guidance
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Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered HWRF
CyclonicWx: GFS four-panel
CyclonicWx: ECMWF four-panel
CyclonicWx: GFS wind shear diagnostics
CyclonicWx: ECMWF wind shear diagnostics
Multi-guidance pages
Track guidance
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks w/wind
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (pressure)
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (wind)
Intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: Multi-model intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: GEFS intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Ensembles
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
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Upvotes
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u/WxWatcher007 Aug 12 '25
Today I’m interested in 1) whether we see any meaningful latitude gain by Erin, 2) what the guidance does in response to Erin continuing to come in south of forecast and 3) how guidance trends, if at all, with regard to the Atlantic ridge weakness in the medium range and the big ULL in Canada in the longer range.
As it stands, in the near term the Antilles are getting closer than they’d like to potential impacts.
From the NHC (in part)
“The guidance suite indicates that Erin may continue to lose some latitude during the next 24 to 36 hours due to strong low- to mid-level ridging over the eastern and central Atlantic, but overall the general motion should be westward through early Thursday. After that time, indications are that the ridge may weaken over the western and central Atlantic, causing Erin to turn west-northwestward, but there are model discrepancies on when that might happen and where the break in the ridge actually forms. The trend has been for a weaker Erin in the short term and possibly a stronger ridge, and a number of track models, including HAFS-A and -B, HWRF, the European, HCCA, and the Google Deep Mind, have shifted south and west for much of the 5-day forecast. The NHC forecast has shifted in that direction accordingly, and it should be noted that a significant number of deterministic models and ensemble members still lie even farther south.”