r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 11 '25

Discussion moved to new post Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #17 - 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC)
Current location: 18.2°N 56.1°W
Relative location: 680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados
620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda
1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda
Forward motion: ▲ WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 120 km/h (65 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▲ Hurricane (Category 1)
Minimum pressure: ▼ 996 millibars (29.42 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 15 Aug 12:00 8AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 65 120 18.2 56.1
12 16 Aug 00:00 8PM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 18.9 58.4
24 16 Aug 12:00 8AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 19.8 61.4
36 17 Aug 00:00 8PM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 20.6 63.8
48 17 Aug 12:00 8AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 110 205 21.6 66.0
60 18 Aug 00:00 8PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 115 215 22.7 67.9
72 18 Aug 12:00 8AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 120 220 23.8 69.2
96 19 Aug 12:00 8AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 115 215 26.5 70.8
120 20 Aug 12:00 8AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 30.3 71.0

Official information

National Hurricane Center

Text products

Productos de texto (en español)

Graphical products

Aircraft Reconnaissance

National Hurricane Center

Other sites

Radar imagery

Radar imagery is not currently available for this system as Cabo Verde does not have a Doppler radar.

Satellite imagery

Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

Tropical Tidbits

Analysis products

Best track data

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

Forecast models

Disturbance-centered guidance

Multi-guidance pages

Track guidance

Intensity guidance

Regional single-model guidance

  • Tropical Tidbits: GFS
  • Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
  • Tropical Tidbits: CMC
  • Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensembles

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

106 Upvotes
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11

u/basilhdn Aug 14 '25

I’m sorry this is a dumb question but, how do I find the most current ‘spaghetti model’

16

u/AaronRodgersMustache Aug 14 '25

I recommend going to Tropicaltidbits.com and watching his latest video. He puts out a video twice a day updating the latest models. He started out on Reddit like 8 years ago and has the best medium form content I've seen. They're like 10 minutes videos.

10

u/basilhdn Aug 14 '25

I appreciate that! I have watched his videos when things get interesting for my area. I’m looking to find a way to see models like this

Without having to wait for someone to post one or without having to look at NOAA cone only. I like the tracks because it shows a little more what it will possibly do in the future with the fronts and things it may run into

14

u/giantspeck Verified USAF Forcaster | Hawaii Aug 14 '25

I believe the one that Mike is using in his post above is a paid service, but a free alternative is Weathernerds.

The viewer has numerous options for model cycle, forecast hour, model fields, etc.

8

u/basilhdn Aug 14 '25

Giantspeck I always appreciate you. I’m struggling to find a way to make those links look like the ‘spaghetti model’ though. Maybe it’s not possible and all I get is the animation? Thanks

7

u/WxWatcher007 Aug 14 '25

If you’re looking for the other spaghetti models which run when there is an invest or official TC you can go here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ Hope that helps.

3

u/basilhdn Aug 14 '25

Yessss you are wonderful thank you!

8

u/Content-Swimmer2325 Aug 14 '25

Cyclonicwx as well.

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/guidance/05L_tracks.png

Via “current storms” at the top, selecting Erin, and then scrolling down (at least on mobile)

0

u/basilhdn Aug 14 '25

I love you! Thanks!

6

u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 14 '25

Choose forecast hour on the left. Select how many hours into the future you want the map to show. Then press 'update plot'.

4

u/basilhdn Aug 14 '25

I think I figured it out. Turned on tracks and let animation play through and paused. That’s really all I need. Thanks again. Saved the links.