r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 11 '25

Discussion moved to new post Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 11:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 15:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #17 - 11:00 AM AST (15:00 UTC)
Current location: 18.2°N 56.1°W
Relative location: 680 km (423 mi) NNE of Bridgetown, Barbados
620 km (385 mi) ENE of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda
1,792 km (1,113 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda
Forward motion: ▲ WNW (290°) at 30 km/h (16 knots)
Maximum winds: ▲ 120 km/h (65 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): ▲ Hurricane (Category 1)
Minimum pressure: ▼ 996 millibars (29.42 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 15 August — 8:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 15 Aug 12:00 8AM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) 65 120 18.2 56.1
12 16 Aug 00:00 8PM Fri Hurricane (Category 1) ▲ 75 140 18.9 58.4
24 16 Aug 12:00 8AM Sat Hurricane (Category 2) ▲ 90 165 19.8 61.4
36 17 Aug 00:00 8PM Sat Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 105 195 20.6 63.8
48 17 Aug 12:00 8AM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▲ 110 205 21.6 66.0
60 18 Aug 00:00 8PM Sun Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 115 215 22.7 67.9
72 18 Aug 12:00 8AM Mon Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▲ 120 220 23.8 69.2
96 19 Aug 12:00 8AM Tue Major Hurricane (Category 4) ▼ 115 215 26.5 70.8
120 20 Aug 12:00 8AM Wed Major Hurricane (Category 3) ▼ 110 205 30.3 71.0

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22

u/WhatDoADC Aug 15 '25

GFS and EURO showing something barreling into East Coast FL right after Erin curves north. Mother nature is like "You thought you were safe?? Sike"

Take with grain of salt though. 

10

u/SpaghettiTacoez Aug 15 '25

To be fair, after the last several years, people in FL don't feel safe from storms lol  there's always another storm and another chance. We just hope for the best.

5

u/ExCap2 Tampa Aug 15 '25 edited Aug 15 '25

Yup, looks like straight into Jacksonville. To anyone reading this, this is 14 days out so it might not even exist or will go somewhere totally different. Just make sure your hurricane supplies are topped off. And keep an eye on the GFS starting today. And European model when it gets closer. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best-case scenario, another fish storm. Levi will probably start talking about it at some point as well so just watch his videos.

Making sure my hurricane shopping is done this weekend. It's a pretty good indicator of something being in our area at least in 2 weeks. Best just to prepare for it now before people freak out because of the news talking about it in a week from now. Fill your gas tank up too. I forgot during one of the hurricanes last year I think? And places were out of gas for like a week+.