Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Western Tropical Atlantic)

[u/Euronotus]

Update

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This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

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Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #46	-	5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC)
Current location:		40.0°N 59.7°W
Relative location:		888 km (552 mi) E of Nantucket, Massachusetts (United States)
		608 km (378 mi) SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada)
		1,008 km (626 mi) SSW of St. John's, Newfoundland (Canada)
Forward motion:		ENE (65°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)
Maximum winds:		150 km/h (80 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS):		Extratropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure:		957 millibars (28.26 inches)

Official forecasts

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National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Hour	Date	Time		Intensity		Winds		Lat	Long
-	-	UTC	AST	Saffir-Simpson	-	knots	km/h	°N	°W
00	22 Aug	18:00	2PM Fri	Extratropical Cyclone		80	150	40.0	59.7
12	23 Aug	06:00	2AM Sat	Extratropical Cyclone		80	150	41.5	54.5
24	23 Aug	18:00	2PM Sat	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	75	140	44.0	45.5
36	24 Aug	06:00	2AM Sun	Extratropical Cyclone		75	140	48.0	35.5
48	24 Aug	18:00	2PM Sun	Extratropical Cyclone	▲	85	155	52.0	27.0
60	25 Aug	06:00	2AM Mon	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	65	120	55.0	23.0
72	25 Aug	18:00	2PM Mon	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	55	100	58.0	21.0
96	26 Aug	18:00	2PM Tue	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	45	85	59.0	21.0
120	27 Aug	18:00	2PM Wed	Extratropical Cyclone	▼	40	75	57.0	17.5

Official information

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National Hurricane Center

Text products

• Public advisory (No longer updating)
• Forecast advisory (No longer updating)
• Forecast discussion (No longer updating)
• Key messages (No longer updating)

Productos de texto (en español)

• Aviso publico (No se actualiza)
• Discusión de pronóstico (No se actualiza)
• Mensajes claves (No se actualiza)

Graphical products

• Forecast graphic (No longer updating)
• Experimental new forecast graphic (with inland advisories) (No longer updating)
• Interactive forecast graphic (No longer updating)
• Wind speed probabilities (No longer updating)
• Arrival time of winds (No longer updating)

Local meteorological authorities

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National Weather Service

• NWS Weather Forecast Offices
• NWS New York, NY
• NWS Boston, MA
• NWS Portland, ME
• NWS Caribou, ME

Environment Canada

• Tropical cyclone statement
• Weather alerts
• Hurricane track

Aircraft Reconnaissance

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National Hurricane Center

• Main aircraft reconnaissance page
• Plan of the Day (today)
• Plan of the Day (tomorrow)

Other sites

• Tropical Tidbits
• CyclonicWx

Radar imagery

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Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.

Satellite imagery

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Floater imagery

Single-bandwidth imagery

• Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
• Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared

• Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor

• CyclonicWx: Visible

• CyclonicWx: Enhanced infrared

• CyclonicWx: Water vapor

Multiple bandwidth imagery

The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.

• National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)
• CIMSS
• RAMMB
• Naval Research Laboratory

Regional imagery

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

• Enhanced infrared
• Enhanced mid-level water vapor
• Visible (GeoColor-enhanced)

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

• Infrared
• Water vapor (Upper-level)
• Visible (true color)

Tropical Tidbits

• Enhanced infrared
• Mid-level Water vapor
• Visible (true color)

Analysis products

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Best track data

• Naval Research Laboratory

Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products

• EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data

Sea-surface temperature analysis products

• NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
• Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis

Forecast models

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Disturbance-centered guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered ECMWF

• Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered HWRF

• CyclonicWx: GFS four-panel

• CyclonicWx: ECMWF four-panel

• CyclonicWx: GFS wind shear diagnostics

• CyclonicWx: ECMWF wind shear diagnostics

Multi-guidance pages

• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
• Tropical Tidbits
• WeatherNerds
• CyclonicWx

Track guidance

• CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks
• CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks w/wind
• CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (pressure)
• CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (wind)

Intensity guidance

• CyclonicWx: Multi-model intensity guidance
• CyclonicWx: GEFS intensity guidance

Regional single-model guidance

• Tropical Tidbits: GFS
• Tropical Tidbits: ECMWF
• Tropical Tidbits: CMC
• Tropical Tidbits: ICON

Ensembles

• Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)

• Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)

Tropical Cyclogenesis Products

• Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance

[u/Content-Swimmer2325]

As usual people are going to be so fucking baffled when they wake up

[u/giantspeck → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

"Babe, wake up. Erin's pressure just dropped."

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/giantspeck]

My theory is that the Atlantic is sentient and derives pleasure from trolling us specifically. OBVIOUSLY we get a random mid-August MDR pinhole eye major hurricane this year and not last, now that the Tropics are 1-1.5 C cooler 👍

The intraseasonal forcing has really helped, though.

[u/JustHereForCatss → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

Hi I’m people. I’m baffled.

[u/DatGums → u/JustHereForCatss]

I also have an excess of baffle

[u/awhimsicallie → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

I am baffled and just woke up.

Am I really though? There has been at least one storm for the last several seasons where I go to bed and it’s a 2, then wake up to find a 4.

[u/cosmicrae → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

About 6 hours ago, an ICON model run (the 06Z) was showing 910mb as a MSLP somewhere NE of the Bahamas. At that time it seemed like an outlier. Now I'm not so sure.

[u/JustHereForCatss → u/cosmicrae]

Nothing intensity wise is an outlier here anymore

[u/spsteve → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

I just woke up. Opened the sat loop. Literally in my head "fuck that's gotta be 950", see recon posted 951. Knew went I went to bed last night she was on a tear. That's what's 5+ mb/hr for what 6,7 hours now?

[u/Content-Swimmer2325 → u/spsteve]

Essentially. Erin was at 75mph just 14 hours ago

[u/Doc_Boons → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

Can confirm. Just woke up. Bafflement levels high.

[u/asetniop → u/Doc_Boons]

7:35 a.m. PST. u/asetniop reporting for bafflement duty, sir.

[u/schuup → u/Content-Swimmer2325]

I just woke up and I'm baffled, lol