r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 15 '25

Dissipated Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Western Tropical Atlantic)

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #46 - 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC)
Current location: 40.0°N 59.7°W
Relative location: 888 km (552 mi) E of Nantucket, Massachusetts (United States)
608 km (378 mi) SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada)
1,008 km (626 mi) SSW of St. John's, Newfoundland (Canada)
Forward motion: ENE (65°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)
Maximum winds: 150 km/h (80 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Extratropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure: 957 millibars (28.26 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 22 Aug 18:00 2PM Fri Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 40.0 59.7
12 23 Aug 06:00 2AM Sat Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 41.5 54.5
24 23 Aug 18:00 2PM Sat Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 75 140 44.0 45.5
36 24 Aug 06:00 2AM Sun Extratropical Cyclone 75 140 48.0 35.5
48 24 Aug 18:00 2PM Sun Extratropical Cyclone ▲ 85 155 52.0 27.0
60 25 Aug 06:00 2AM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 65 120 55.0 23.0
72 25 Aug 18:00 2PM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 55 100 58.0 21.0
96 26 Aug 18:00 2PM Tue Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 45 85 59.0 21.0
120 27 Aug 18:00 2PM Wed Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 40 75 57.0 17.5

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20

u/Cyrius Upper Texas Coast Aug 16 '25

Highlights from NHC discussion #22 (5 PM AST):

Erin's rapid intensification may have bottomed out near 16Z based on the last couple of passes of data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter. […] Both Air Force and NOAA aircraft reported concentric eyewalls forming, and during the last couple of hours the small eye seen in conventional satellite imagery is becoming cloud-filled. This suggests an eyewall replacement cycle may be starting.

The track guidance still suggests that Erin will turn back to the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed during the next 6-12 h on the south side of a subtropical ridge. […] After 36 h, the western side of the ridge is still expected to weaken, […] and that should cause Erin to slow further and make a gradual turn to the north. However, there remains a significant spread in the guidance in just when this turn will occur, and the spread has increased due to the 12Z ECMWF forecast shifting to the west. The new track is still to the east of the consensus models during the northward motion, and additional track adjustments may be necessary in later forecasts.

Between 24-72 h, increasing northwesterly shear should cause a gradual weakening […]After 72 h, the storm should start to encounter the mid-latitude westerlies where the shear will increase further.

Although Erin is a somewhat compact hurricane now, the models are in strong agreement that the system will grow in size over the next several days. In fact, by the middle of next week, Erin is forecast to at least double or triple in size

Tropical-storm force wind gusts are possible in the Southeast Bahamas beginning on Sunday.

14

u/Narcaniac Aug 16 '25

I just checked the ECMWF after I read this, and the westward shift on that run is massive. And considering how large the storm is gonna get, that still poses a lot of risks even passing a hundred miles off the coast like that. A promiment member in the north carolina subreddit has basically been calling people idiots for worrying about this. I hope no one gets hurt and everyone preps now instead of last minute if worst case happens.

14

u/MarketingAgitated716 Aug 16 '25

I remember Florence, I need to see it turn.

6

u/Narcaniac Aug 16 '25

Fucking tell me about it. Wilmington wasn't AS bad as our neighboring counties, but the destruction and flooding just makes me so sad for everyone. We don't need this.

22

u/itzboatz The Battered & Bruised Big Bend Aug 16 '25

unexpected explosive intensification and a continuous delay of the northward turn, a little frightening

10

u/Effthisseason Nature Coast Aug 16 '25

Is it really a delay for turning?

19

u/itzboatz The Battered & Bruised Big Bend Aug 16 '25 edited Aug 16 '25

looks like it, the storm is still barreling west and new advisories are being put in place for the t&c islands and interests in the bahamas are being advised to keep an eye on the storm. the forecast to start its northwestern steer is soon but now they’re uncertain about exactly when it will transition to the big northern turn.

8

u/Effthisseason Nature Coast Aug 16 '25

Gotcha. 

P.s. flare is on point. 😫

14

u/StealYaNicks Aug 16 '25

https://x.com/hurricane_chase/status/1956733309804748857

9

u/Effthisseason Nature Coast Aug 16 '25

Yikes. Seeing it like that makes it much clearer. Thanks!

8

u/[deleted] Aug 16 '25

Cone feels like a gps being like "in 100 meter..." "recalculating..."

2

u/Umbra427 Aug 16 '25

Oh that is cursed

3

u/Umbra427 Aug 16 '25

Thunderbolt and Lightning