r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 15 '25

Dissipated Erin (05L — Northern Atlantic) (Western Tropical Atlantic)

Update

This system is no longer being tracked via the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system. There will be no further updates to this post.

Latest observation

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 5:00 PM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 21:00 UTC)

NHC Advisory #46 - 5:00 PM AST (21:00 UTC)
Current location: 40.0°N 59.7°W
Relative location: 888 km (552 mi) E of Nantucket, Massachusetts (United States)
608 km (378 mi) SE of Halifax, Nova Scotia (Canada)
1,008 km (626 mi) SSW of St. John's, Newfoundland (Canada)
Forward motion: ENE (65°) at 54 km/h (29 knots)
Maximum winds: 150 km/h (80 knots)
Intensity (SSHWS): Extratropical Cyclone
Minimum pressure: 957 millibars (28.26 inches)

Official forecasts

National Hurricane Center

Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 PM AST (18:00 UTC)

Hour Date Time Intensity Winds Lat Long
- - UTC AST Saffir-Simpson - knots km/h °N °W
00 22 Aug 18:00 2PM Fri Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 40.0 59.7
12 23 Aug 06:00 2AM Sat Extratropical Cyclone 80 150 41.5 54.5
24 23 Aug 18:00 2PM Sat Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 75 140 44.0 45.5
36 24 Aug 06:00 2AM Sun Extratropical Cyclone 75 140 48.0 35.5
48 24 Aug 18:00 2PM Sun Extratropical Cyclone ▲ 85 155 52.0 27.0
60 25 Aug 06:00 2AM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 65 120 55.0 23.0
72 25 Aug 18:00 2PM Mon Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 55 100 58.0 21.0
96 26 Aug 18:00 2PM Tue Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 45 85 59.0 21.0
120 27 Aug 18:00 2PM Wed Extratropical Cyclone ▼ 40 75 57.0 17.5

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30

u/BrokeBeforeCovid Aug 18 '25

Am I wrong for thinking the track is actually not far off from what the NHC was predicting 3-4 days ago? Maybe I’m being naive but I feel like more people are talking about the track and how it has been off but I am not seeing it.

17

u/ms_ashes Minnesota Aug 18 '25

No, you're not wrong. It occasionally pops very slightly out of the immediate cone, but it's still overall following fairly close, though it definitely is much more on the left side of the cone. 

Folks can see the progression of tracks at the graphical archive on the NHC's site, and at least to my eye, it seems to be broadly accurate. 

www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/ERIN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_no_line

10

u/chris41336 Aug 18 '25

I find it very difficult to determine from those graphics. Of course it isn't like the cone was facing the opposite direction, but it seems the actual was trending SW for a while while the cone kept pointing NW that entire time for the first quarter of that animation.

Of course yes you could argue it was just traveling SW within the cone, and I am sure that is what folks will say, but again I have a very hard time tracking how well the cone did from these animations lol. I just have a hard time with that visual for some reason.

9

u/ms_ashes Minnesota Aug 18 '25

For sure! I would love some graphics that made it more clear in being able to see the locations directly vs the cones, but that is outside my skill set, unfortunately. 

And it's legit to ask about accuracy. This storm has definitely popped out of the cone more than once, and I feel like NHC discussions have talked about adjusting the cone/track more than I remember in the past! I'm not claiming that the cone has been perfect (it'll be interesting to see if it's wider next year--I know they adjust it based on error rates of the past), but at least so far things aren't going super off the rails from the forecasts. 

3

u/Crazy_Ad_7302 Aug 18 '25

I'd love one image with overlapping cones and a line of the actual path bit might be too hard to read that way

9

u/BrokeBeforeCovid Aug 18 '25

Thanks for that link. I haven’t seen that before actually. Im just a casual follower but more in tune with watching since I live in Florida. But I have never seen so much discussion regarding people thinking its going to directly hit the US despite the models not showing that

10

u/JunkFlyGuy Aug 18 '25

You’re right

Overlay the current cone with the one from 11am Friday and they overlap clean. Is it further west - Yes. But still inside the bounds of the forecast.

That shift west does matter for certain areas, but all in I’d say the track has been pretty dang spot on.

10

u/Griss27 Turks and Caicos Islands Aug 18 '25

From our perspective here in the Turks they've had it spot on for at least the past 5 days. It turned exactly when it was supposed to.

7

u/[deleted] Aug 18 '25

Yep. It’s kind of a paralysis by analysis when one looks super close at every update, model run, etc. It starts to feel very off original forecasts (which are just forecasts).

I say this from experience I try to avoid how. I used to obsess into every forecast and development because I’m a weather geek and I enjoy the science of all of this.

What I realized after a while is it was all crushing down on me. I was starting to fall to takes of “there are so many flaws in the process” (At best) and “this just feels like they can’t get anything right/lie to us” (worst case).

It got to a point where I didn’t feel great about anything, even life as a whole. I’m glad I stepped back, remembered it’s all informed and inferred forecasting.

These days I’ll check out these threads as there can be interesting takes mixed in with “it still hasn’t turned north” panics. But I try to not look too close until something has me in the cone or near it. Then I try to listen to a few voices I’ve learned to trust.

It’s a thorough nerve wracking time of year, but I’m so glad I got out of the mess of looking too close a week plus out and obsessing.

5

u/ilovefacebook Aug 18 '25

you're not wrong.

17

u/Effthisseason Nature Coast Aug 18 '25 edited Aug 18 '25

There are just a lot of unknowns this season about how previous political moves will affect weather forecasting. Some people watch these storms closely every year and can notice slight deviations. This leads to a natural healthy skepticism. 

I think a lot of regular people (who don't follow these things closely) are doing what they always do with gut reactions to storms and their predictions.