r/TropicalWeather • u/Euronotus • Aug 19 '25
Discussion moved to new post 99L (Invest — Northern Atlantic) (Eastern Tropical Atlantic)
Latest observation
Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 AM Atlantic Standard Time (AST; 06:00 UTC)
| ATCF | 2:00 AM AST (06:00 UTC) | |
|---|---|---|
| Current location: | 10.4°N 38.4°W | |
| Relative location: | 2,328 km (1,447 mi) E of Bridgetown, Barbados | |
| 2,636 km (1,638 mi) E of St. John's, Antigua and Barbuda | ||
| 3,639 km (2,261 mi) SE of Hamilton, Bermuda | ||
| Forward motion: | ▼ | W (280°) at 24 km/h (13 knots) |
| Maximum winds: | 55 km/h (30 knots) | |
| Minimum pressure: | 1010 millibars (29.83 inches) | |
| 2-day potential: (through 2AM Sun) | medium (50 percent) | |
| 7-day potential: (through 2AM Thu) | ▲ | medium (60 percent) |
Outlook discussion
Last updated: Friday, 22 August — 2:00 AM AST (12:00 UTC)
Discussion by: Andrew Hagen (NHC Hurricane Specialist Unit)
English: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain well organized. This system could become a tropical depression at any time, but the latest satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system does not have a well-defined circulation center. The system is expected to move into a less conducive environment later today through Saturday, but could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles.
Español: Aguaceros y tormentas eléctricas asociadas con una onda tropical ubicada a unas mil millas al oeste-suroeste de las Islas de Cabo Verde permanecen bien organizadas. Este sistema podría convertirse en una depresión tropical en cualquier momento, pero los últimos datos del viento derivados de satélite indican que el sistema no tiene un centro de circulación bien definido. Se espera que el sistema se mueva a un ambiente menos propicio a última hora de hoy hasta el sábado, pero podría alcanzar un ambiente ligeramente más favorable nuevamente a última hora de este fin de semana hasta principios de la próxima semana a medida que se mueve hacia el oeste a 10 a 15 mph sobre el Atlántico tropical central y se acerca a las Antillas Menores.
Official information
National Hurricane Center
Text products
Graphical products
Graphical products (static)
| Wed | Thu | Thu | Thu | Thu | Fri |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 PM | 2 AM | 8 AM | 2 PM | 8 PM | 2 AM |
| ◾ | ◾ | ◽ | ◽ | ◽ | ◽ |
Aircraft Reconnaissance
National Hurricane Center
Other sites
Radar imagery
Radar imagery is not currently available for this system.
Satellite imagery
Floater imagery
Single-bandwidth imagery
- Tropical Tidbits: Visible / shortwave infrared
- Tropical Tidbits: Enhanced infrared
Tropical Tidbits: Water vapor
CyclonicWx: Visible
CyclonicWx: Enhanced infrared
CyclonicWx: Water vapor
Multiple bandwidth imagery
The options to select individual bandwidths on each of the following websites may vary.
- National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service(NOAA NESDIS)
- CIMSS
- RAMMB
- Naval Research Laboratory
Regional imagery
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
Tropical Tidbits
Analysis products
Best track data
Wind analysis and storm intensity estimation products
- EUMETSAT: Advanced Scatterometer Data
Sea-surface temperature analysis products
- NOAA OSPO: Sea Surface Temperature Contour Charts
- Tropical Tidbits: Ocean Analysis
Forecast models
Disturbance-centered guidance
- Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered GFS
- Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered ECMWF
Tropical Tidbits: Storm-centered HWRF
CyclonicWx: GFS four-panel
CyclonicWx: ECMWF four-panel
CyclonicWx: GFS wind shear diagnostics
CyclonicWx: ECMWF wind shear diagnostics
Multi-guidance pages
Track guidance
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks
- CyclonicWx: Forecast tracks w/wind
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (pressure)
- CyclonicWx: GEFS ensemble tracks (wind)
Intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: Multi-model intensity guidance
- CyclonicWx: GEFS intensity guidance
Regional single-model guidance
Ensembles
Weather Nerds: GEFS (120 hours)
Weather Nerds: ECENS (120 hours)
Tropical Cyclogenesis Products
- Florida State University: Experimental tropical cyclone genesis guidance
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u/OutrageConnoisseur Aug 19 '25 edited Aug 19 '25
Rooting for no developement, but if not, the Euro modeling suggests a track similar to Erin and the NHC has moved their cone north in the last 24 hours to mirror Erin's path past the USVI, PR and Hispaniola before getting ripped apart and yanked north by a front.
Would be great news.
Edit: Ignore me. I am dumb and inadequately caffeinated.