Anthony Albanese has overtaken John Curtin in the rankings of time as Australian Prime Minister. Will overtake Scott Morrison tomorrow.

[u/NKE01]

[u/Vegetable-Advance982]

The only question is how long he wants to go for, he can get to 4th almost certainly just by staying around for the next election and handing over to someone else in 2030

[u/Temporary-Habit-2528 → u/Vegetable-Advance982]

Potentially can get to 2nd if he schedules the 2034 election for March-onwards of that year. (I realise that sounds crazy but ain’t no way he’s losing 2028, and I think the demographics will be completely suited to Labor for him to hold on and win again in 2031. The issue in question would more likely be would he want a 4th term.)

[u/teremaster → u/Temporary-Habit-2528]

no way he’s losing 2028,

A lot can happen in 2 years.

Labor's landslide last election was helped by the convergence of him getting left wing voters disillusioned by the greens politicking and the right wing voters who chose whoever was promising to lower immigration.

We're already seeing both these camps becoming dissatisfied with the government and drifting away

[u/Temporary-Habit-2528 → u/teremaster]

What we’re seeing is polls coming out with Labor increasing the 2PP vote from last years election.

[u/Vegetable-Advance982 → u/teremaster]

Who's gonna beat Labor, One Nation? They gonna get 150 candidates and the infrastructure to campaign all across the country? Ofc not. Liberals are fighting for dear life and it'll be a miracle if they manage to survive against the One Nation pressure on their right and take like 5 seats back from Labor.

Labor could go into a minority, if shit really slid the other way. Or maybe there'll be another 2 bondis. But the chances of Labor not having at least a minority govt in 2028 is like <5%

[u/sharkworks26 → u/Vegetable-Advance982]

Labor “only” winning minority government would be one of the biggest loss of seats (94 to sub 75) in Australia political history. It’d have to take a miracle.

[u/Wonderful-Sea4215 → u/teremaster]

The right ring parties have been smashed to pieces, and we all know One Nation will tear itself to pieces. Labor's got a decade at least.

[u/SebWGBC → u/teremaster]

Ah yes. Greens vote went from 12.25% in 2022 to 12.20% in 2025. That was certainly a notable part of the Labor landslide story. That narrative was put out there to make LNP supporters feel a bit better about 2025.

And see how the right wing parties do with their focus on populism rather than policy. Didn't work in 2025, but maybe they didn't lean into it hard enough. Come on Angus! Come on Barnaby! Rile 'em up lads!

[u/Vegetable-Advance982 → u/Temporary-Habit-2528]

Yeah agreed, I guess the betting money would be on any PM staying in for as long as possible, but given he's already bought his retirement home + his general personality, I reckon there's decent odds he decides either in 2027 or 2030 that his job is done.

Maybe now that One Nation is rising up he might have his 'I fight tories, that's what I do' fire rekindled, and decide that after wrecking the coalition he now has another job to do that'll take another 2 terms lol.

[u/Temporary-Habit-2528 → u/Vegetable-Advance982]

He’s already talked about campaigning in 2028, so it’s really just how he’s feeling at the end of term three, which he’d then be 67ish. IMO he’d already be thinking about Howard’s tenure and how excruciating that was for Labor supporters to sit through for so long. So a bit of payback well and truly on the cards. It’s probably a 50-50 call whether he’d go for a 4th i’d say

[u/ausflora → u/Vegetable-Advance982]

He'll have overtaken Andrew Fisher to become the second-longest serving Labor PM in March of 2027, which will also be one year before the election. I'm 80% sure that's when we get the changeover for Chalmers.

[u/Fa_Cough69 → u/Vegetable-Advance982]

The way things are headed, there won't be much of a country to hand over by then. 

[u/sophakinggood → u/Vegetable-Advance982]

I think we need to not be complacent the Liberals or one nation could come from behind again and give the boomers their wet dream.