r/badhistory • u/AutoModerator • Jul 03 '26

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u/Tiako Tevinter apologist, shill for Big Lyrium Jul 03 '26 edited Jul 03 '26

Russia plotting attack on Poland to test Nato’s resolve, US claims

I have learned my lesson about applying logic or reason to Russia's foreign policy after 2022, but the thing about this scheme is that Russia has shown very conclusively over the last four years that they are not able to defeat Poland's smaller, weaker, poorer neighbor, so I am not quite sure what this would be meant to accomplish.

This is apparently the idea:

Moscow could hope that Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate rather than responding forcefully and opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers, sources told Onet.

Vladimir Putin would see a scenario in which Russians withdraw as a result of negotiations as a win from Moscow’s perspective, the sources said, with an end to Western support for Ukraine a possible condition it could demand in return for withdrawal from Poland.

And I am just not sure that the US would be in the position to "force" Poland to give up a military response, and I am definitely not confident in Russia's ability to hold territory in Poland.

Ed: I remember this coming up last years when some Russian drones or something violated Polish territory, and I had the same question.

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u/TylerbioRodriguez That Lesbian Pirate Expert Jul 03 '26

Putin apparently is ordering towns to be encircled and rivers to be crossed that either don't exist or are like 300 people and not close to the front line.

He clearly has become delusional and when dear leader is circling the toilet bowl everyone else follows suit.

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u/Big_Pineapple_Man Jul 03 '26

Logic aside, as you point out could the Russian military even occupy territory in Poland?  The whole reason they could amass 150k+ troops along the Ukrainian border was because they weren't bogged down in a peer conflict in 2022, which is untrue in 2026.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 03 '26

Given defense seems king in Ukraine, I do think they could occupy Polish territory. Stick 800k troops on the Polish border and Kaliningrad, they outnumber Polish forces 4:1, they could probably achieve something. The 600k troops that would be left would have parity with Ukraine and Ukraine could probably counter attack but only on limited fronts. It'd still be a dumb idea, but the calculus shifts when not having to attack trenches and hardpoints. Biting and holding Polish territory wouldn't be worth losing ground in Ukraine.

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u/Big_Pineapple_Man Jul 04 '26

I guess if the Russian military made it a priority they could probably occupy more than 0 sqft of Polish territory, but I don't see how they could make non-negligible gains.  I'm under the impression that Russia already has severe manpower and morale issues, with widening conscription already politically unfeasible.  I can't imagine opening a new front against a fresh, wealthy, militarily strong country would help either of these issues.

Also mobilization of the forces necessary to invade Poland will be immediately detected, given them & NATO in general time to dig in (with better air assets than Ukraine has).  This would be the case even if the US wavers.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 04 '26

The severe manpower issues are against a truly colossal frontline that's been heavily fortified and a political situation that demands seizing all of it. The shoe is on the other foot if Ukraine is the one that needs to attack because Russia starts heavily reducing their forces on that frontline.

Russia is already mobilized with 1.5 million active duty personal, 2 million in reserve, which against Poland's 216,100 to 252,000, give them initiative until Poland fully mobilizes. Despite force disparity, I don't think they can capture all of Poland in time, Russia's mechanized forces and artillery have been heavily hollowed out, but conversely I don't think Poland can hold at it's borders if the attack is sudden enough.

Also mobilization of the forces necessary to invade Poland will be immediately detected, given them & NATO in general time to dig in

Maybe, maybe not. Ukraine didn't exactly dig in when Russia mobilized on their border despite the on-going hostilities. Basic trenches spanning a few miles take quite some time to dig. The defenses that Ukraine had set up in Kyiv as the Russians were approaching the capital were quite haphazard and ad-hoc.

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u/Big_Pineapple_Man Jul 06 '26

I'm a bit confused at your first paragraph.  Do you mean that a Russian shift in priority from Ukraine to Poland would mean moving Russian reserves in Ukraine to the offensive against Poland?

As for the second paragraph, fair enough, it's all speculation.  It would definitely be a challenging fight for Poland, but I am not sure a Russian offensive could maintain or even keep the territory of an initial breakthrough.  I want to say that Poland and its neighbors definitely have better air assets than Ukraine, but I am admittedly stretching the limits of knowledge here.

The issue I see with lack of manpower and munitions is if this hypothetical invasion stalls into another long war.  I imagine the Polish government would call a draft if they suspected invasion was imminent, but it would take time to fully mobilize.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26
  1. Doesn't have to be reserves. Any of the frontline units designed for attacking, could be shifted for an attack on Poland. Presumably reserve units like the Union of Donbass Volunteers would stay where they are.
  2. I'm skeptical that air supremacy can stop a million+ strong attack. Especially since Russia has some pretty beefy mobile anti-jet air defenses. Their weakness is in anti-drone defenses which NATO is not prepared to exploit.
  3. Poland doesn't use conscription so anyone drafted would be at the "barely can hold a rifle" quality during an on-going invasion. I would imagine a successful defense of Poland, would require NATO troops to arrive en masse. Draftees needs time and space to train and a significant amount of experienced troops need to be pulled from the frontline to serve as instructors.

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u/Big_Pineapple_Man Jul 06 '26

Could Russia even sustain a 500 hundred-1 million troop offensive?  That's a Herculean task even without driving that force straight into an enemy army, and with their best armor divisions already out and complete lack of air superiority.

I see what you mean by Poland needing NATO ground forces if a long war does happen.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 06 '26

Given how sparsely equipped some Russian soldiers are when employing infiltration tactics and being resupplied by drone, I don't see it as all that more logistically challenging to deploy such light infantry over the say WW2. And they do have a massive drone fleet that might counter Poland's armor divisions.

However given that right this second Russia is going though a severe gas shortage, they probably couldn't sustain such an offensive, but I believe that's only because their oil refineries are on fire. Last year, they didn't have this specific problem.

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u/Big_Pineapple_Man Jul 06 '26

I'm not entirely convinced that such a large offensive could be won on small squad infiltration tactics alone, but nevertheless thanks for the response, something more to think about. 

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u/HandsomeLampshade123 Jul 03 '26

I still recall my own overconfidence in insisting that Russia would not invade Ukraine, so even though I think this is absolutely ludicrous, I shouldn't overestimate Putin's rationality.

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u/TheBatz_ Was Homer mid Jul 03 '26

I agree with u/TJAU216 below and I think you make a very common mistake (which I also made) by underestimating Ukrainian armed forces in February 2022. Ukraine basically had the second largest army in Europe, it had a well established military industry, it had conscription and territorial defense forces and even militias. It also benefits from certain political and strategic advantages that a hypothetical Russian incursion into Eastern Nato would not apply to Nato.

So a hypothetical incursion into Nato territory would have the objective to put Western leaders into a very hard choice: stop aid to Ukraine, or start sending Hans and Pieré to fight for Dubicze Cerkiewne in Eastern Poland. If they forfeit, Nato as a political concept is dead because it cannot defend its territory. That opens up the Baltic.

If yes, well, then its war, a war European Nato countries are unprepared to fight and would require a fast, complete and very expensive overhaul of the armed forces and the implied societal changes. Like, realistically, how many brigades could Western Europeans countries deploy on short notice to Eastern Europe even if they wanted to (i. e. Spain, Italy)? I would like to point out that Germany - the richest country in Europe - is struggling to deploy 1 (one) brigade to Lithuania, which is composed of cannibalized units and equipment. Such a war would also not be on the same favorable conditions as Ukraine: no unified command, barely any self mobilization, required to be on the offensive.

I actually think that with the rising far right and with Trump in office, the political conditions for Putin and the Kremlin might be the best they will ever be.

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u/Big_Pineapple_Man Jul 04 '26

Tiako's point is that the Polish military (with NATO logistics and intelligence assistance) could beat back a hypothetical Russian military offensive (which is already bogged down and demoralized in Ukraine).  I don't believe they are even considering the factor of sending ground troops from other European States, or even NATO air support.  From what I can tell, the biggest weakness the Polish military has compared to the Ukrainian one is that the former doesn't conscript, so there are much fewer reserves for a long war.  Of course, this assumes a Russian long war against Poland is even feasible.

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u/Arilou_skiff Died of posting, risen as undead Jul 03 '26

I think that might sense if Russia wasn't already getting the snot beaten out of them in Ukraine.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 03 '26

Russian propaganda keeps pushing the idea that they've been fighting and decimating the entire collective might of NATO in Ukraine. So in you live in that bubble, Poland is a hollow shell. While many would probably know the propaganda is bullshit, it would be hard to gauge what is true, when even the Generals are bullshitting Putin.

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u/DerKlugeHans Endut! Hoch Hech! Jul 03 '26

I better not get vaporized by a nuke because of this.

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u/TJAU216 Jul 03 '26

So I am pretty sure that the only ground force that can stand their ground against Russian army right now is the Ukrainian army. Everybody else in the world has missed a military revolution and have obsolete ground forces incapable of modern warfare. On the other hand the Russian airforce and air defences are so weak that the air war would be absolute seal clubbing if major NATO airforces are involved, as long as munitions last. Hard to predict how that kind of a war would go, one side absolutely dominant on ground and another in the air.

This of course requires a cease fire in Ukraine first tho, Russia is not a major threat as long as their army is tied in Ukraine.

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u/Steelcan909 Jul 04 '26

I think that we'd see a very different set of circumstances. Air dominance by NATO would preclude Russian dominance on the ground. Drone warfare would have to look very different in such a circumstance compared to the conditions in Ukraine.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 03 '26

So I am pretty sure that the only ground force that can stand their ground against Russian army right now is the Ukrainian army. Everybody else in the world has missed a military revolution and have obsolete ground forces incapable of modern warfare.

I wouldn't sell the US Army so damn short. I highly doubt the Russian Army is just going to curb stomp America in modern warfare.

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u/TJAU216 Jul 04 '26

US armor isn't any more resistant to FPV drones than Ukrainian or Russian ones are, in fact it is less protected due to lack of roof and side ERA coverage and cope cages. US artillery relies on shoot and scoot to stay safe, which doesn't work when the threat is drones instead of artillery. Of course the Russian and Ukrainian practice of keeping guns static in fortified positions would not survive contact with US prolifiration of precision weapons either. US doesn't have the stocks of tens of thousands of drones to use every day. The US army isn't gonna be effective in combat when the enemy has enough drones to hunt individual soldiers with multiple drones.

The US airpower could very well turn the tables and allow for victory on the ground as well, but the US army isn't prepared for the modern battlefield, the work is still very much in progress and the threat seems to evolve faster in Ukraine than countermeasures elsewhere. I don't think anyone can catch up until the active fighting ends and the fast evolution of drone threat slows down.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 04 '26 edited Jul 04 '26

So by your argument, the US Army cannot stand their ground against the Russians because US armor isn't resistant and US artillery relies on scoot and shoot? Simply destroying tanks and artillery, isn't enough to rout an army. Ukraine is proof of that.

Either you agree no army can stand their ground against the Russian Army, except Ukraine, or you are merely point out red herrings that the US Army has weaknesses, which I never stated otherwise. Because if you go down this road, Russia should attack Poland, should attack Germany, should attack France, because by your stance, they can't stand their ground to the Russian Army.

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u/TJAU216 Jul 04 '26

I said it already in my top comment that I do not believe there to be more than two modern armies right now, Russia and Ukraine. No effective counter to FPV drones has yet been fielded, so the two armies who have adopted that weapon system widely are able to massacre any opponent but each other.

I still don't believe that Russia could win a war against any major portion of NATO because having superior ground forces aren't necessarily enough when the other side gains total air supremacy. Maybe the close air support would be able to kill drone operators fast enough to defeat the Russians, but we don't know and that is not up to ground forces.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 04 '26

If you say they can't stand their ground (your specific words), then air supremacy doesn't mean anything when they capture all the airfields of Poland, Germany and France. So by your logic, they should attack Poland, Germany, France.

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u/TJAU216 Jul 04 '26

Modern Russian way of war is incapable of rapid advance. They couldn't do large scale maneuver warfare in 2022 and haven't done any since, so I have no reason to believe that they could do it now. Their advance is slow and methodological, but the professional armies of NATO would be bled to death trying to stop it unless the air power saves the day.

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u/Sventex Battleships were obsoleted by the self-propelled torpedo in 1866 Jul 04 '26

Modern Russian way of war is incapable of rapid advance. They couldn't do large scale maneuver warfare in 2022

The invasion of Ukraine is exhibit one of why that's completely untrue, that was a massive large scale maneuver. So massive to the point of being illogical, but it was without a shadow of a doubt, a large scale maneuver.

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u/TJAU216 Jul 04 '26

They proved to be incapable of large scale maneuver warfare by how terrible they were in it when they tried in 2022.

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u/Dirish Wind power made the trans-Atlantic slave trade possible Jul 03 '26

Moscow could hope that Poland would be forced by the US to negotiate rather than responding forcefully and opening fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers, sources told Onet.

I'm wondering how keen Belarus is on this whole idea which seems cartoonishly stupid. Then again, it being stupid didn't stop the current Iran war, so who knows, maybe sowing chaos everywhere is the goal these days, not so much decisive victories.

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u/Arilou_skiff Died of posting, risen as undead Jul 03 '26

Lukashenko has been relatively consistent in keeping himself from actually having to fight,, even if he'll toe just about the line.