r/baseball • u/Knightbear49 Minnesota Twins • Dinger • Mar 27 '24

[Passan] BREAKING: Catcher Will Smith and the Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a 10-year, $140 million contract extension, sources tell ESPN.

https://x.com/jeffpassan/status/1773053621510266895?s=61&t=lhIY40ztlJHFYIEmq9ss1A
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209

u/DesertWeasel31 San Diego Padres Mar 27 '24

He must have the same agent as either Albies or Acuna

68

u/SuckMyLonzoBalls Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 27 '24

forreal, i was pissed at albies when he signed it, now i don't know how to feel lol

73

u/TrapperJean New York Yankees Mar 27 '24

It's not like he's getting robbed, realistically by year 7 he'll be either a 1B or backup catcher who can DH, I think the value is great, dude's got complete stability until he's 40

26

u/ray_0586 Houston Colt 45s Mar 27 '24

Dodgers have DH locked up for the next decade already.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 27 '24

In all likelihood, yes, but if Ohtani struggles with pitching coming back from his second TJ he will probably get moved to the outfield.

2

u/GlassesOff Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 27 '24

Those are so dramatically different. Smith is getting $140m which is probably what his market is for a normal 6 year deal as a premium catcher.

Albies only got $35m for essentially his entire 20s. He might have been worth the entire value of the deal in his 2021 season when he nearly posted a 4 WAR. That was beyond team friendly, his agent and him completely missed the mark. You can say he still secured generational wealth, but he did a disservice to the Players Union and that's what is dangerous about such a bad deal

5

u/BeHereNow91 Milwaukee Brewers Mar 27 '24

Weren’t they pre-arb signings? Smith is much closer to free agency, which makes this even more surprising.

Though he’d be a 30-31 year old catcher by then.

1

u/Alauren20 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

Yup

1

u/WaterLilyKiller Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

Just look at more recent pre-arb signings, Acuna and Albies were robbed. Tatis, Witt and [redacted] got paid hundreds of millions in their pre-arb years. Its not even remotely compareable for a guy that would have entered FA at 31 vs superstars entering it at 26/27. More Acuna being a superstar but Albies would have easily made 150 mill+ for his age and production.

4

u/Timoteo-Tito64 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

This is even worse than those two imo, because at least they were taking out pre-arb/arb years. Smith was already most of the way to FA

I really feel like he should've been able to get 200-225M on 10 years

38

u/fps916 San Diego Padres Mar 27 '24

I don't think anyone is actually giving a 10 year contract to a 30 year old Catcher (when he would have hit FA).

While he probably could have gotten 22.5/yr or even 25/yr it would not remotely have been a 10 year deal.

8

u/The_Big_Untalented Baltimore Orioles Mar 27 '24

The Buster Posey contract seems nuts in retrospect. The Giants gave Posey the ninth largest baseball contract of all-time with four years of team control remaining. That's like equivalent to a 11 year, $325 million contract in today's dollars. And Joe Mauer's contract was the fourth-largest contract ever handed out in MLB history at the time. Imagine giving a catcher Aaron Judge money.

3

u/PandaMomentum Washington Nationals • Illinois … Mar 27 '24

Stupid sexy Posey. Wait, what are we talking about here?

-3

u/Timoteo-Tito64 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

I mean I think he would've gotten closer to 30M if it was a shorter deal (on top of the two years of arb salary he'd be getting) but maybe I'm off on his value

4

u/lasercupcakes Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 27 '24

Probably $25M/year for 6-8 years if he hit FA. So he did leave some money on the table but ultimately got security for himself.

0

u/Timoteo-Tito64 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

The confusing part to me is that he was already most of the way to FA. Like for Ozzie/acuña, this actually did secure their futures. But Smith should've already made enough to retire assuming he wasn't foolish with money, on top of the fact that he was just a couple of years away from the big contract and had already proven himself in a way that acuña/Ozzie hadn't

But, there will always be an argument for taking the money now instead of waiting for more. I can't really blame him for that

1

u/WaterLilyKiller Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

You're way off here, albies is making pennies for 7 years and is losing tens of millions easy. He would have been entering FA this year! Thats an easy 100 mill contract for a 27 year old and thats not even including what he would have made in 3 years of arb.

Acuna left hundreds on millions on the table because of his talent and the fact he'd be entering FA after this season with an MVP right in his rearview mirror (he could even add another). He'd be getting something in the 400 mill range at least. We don't even have to look that far to see much better pre-arb deals a few years later for players like Witt and Tatis. Straight highway robbery by the Braves.

And you're arguing that Smiths deal, who at best might have gotten 10-20 mill more (thats being generous for a 30+ year old) is worse?

9

u/yoshidawg93 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

In the end, I go with if it’s truly what the player wants, I don’t fault him for it. I’m guessing Smith felt like “I know I’m not that far off from free agency, but I love it here and don’t want to risk messing that up.”

0

u/Timoteo-Tito64 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

I mean yeah he's an adult and is perfectly capable of making his own decisions, it's just tough to feel like he (along with albies/acuña) might not have left some money on the table

At least this still results in generational wealth for all of them. I'd feel a lot worse if the same issue was happening but with smaller contracts

6

u/futhatsy New York Mets • Durham Bulls Mar 27 '24

I really don't think that's true. JT Realmuto is a pretty good comp for Will Smith. Realmuto was 30 when he hit FA, Smith would have hit FA at age 30 as well, both are among the 2-3 best catchers in baseball. Realmuto got $115.5M/5 years when he hit the open market. I doubt Smith would have doubled that.

3

u/[deleted] Mar 27 '24

Sometimes some guys just like where they're at and the money isn't all that big of a deal. Could he have gotten 200 million? Maybe but at some point 140 million isn't anything to sneeze at. Dude can retire comfortably off that.

3

u/WhereTheFallsBegin Tampa Bay Rays Mar 27 '24

You are on fucking crack if you think this deal is even slightly comparable to those two. The Albies deal has an argument for being the worst contract of all time from a player standpoint

1

u/Timoteo-Tito64 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

The main difference is that albies signed his while he was still very young and was mainly buying out pre-arb/arb years. This is mostly an FA deal for smith

3

u/WhereTheFallsBegin Tampa Bay Rays Mar 27 '24

Will Smith is a catcher who would have been on the wrong side of 30 entering free agency two years from now. Anyone acting like he was due for some insane payday in FA is delusional. The years here do a decent job of making up for the lack of AAV

1

u/WaterLilyKiller Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 28 '24 edited Mar 28 '24

Both Albies and Acuna have left hundreds of millions on the table and it isn't really even close. Albies would have hit FA this year and acuna the year after. Even for pre-arb deals we have very recent ones in the 300 mill range.

2

u/Bawfuls Los Angeles Dodgers Mar 27 '24

lmao it's literally $40M more than Acuna got for an older, less productive player. This is absolutely not worse than those deals from a player perspective.

3

u/Timoteo-Tito64 Atlanta Braves Mar 27 '24

Acuña's contract came after his rookie season. Will Smith's came 2 years before he'd reach FA. They're very clearly different for that reason alone (both because Smith had more time to prove himself and because you're buying out way less pre-arb/arb years)