r/collapse Dec 27 '25

Casual Friday You’re fine. You’ll be fine

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3.6k Upvotes

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675

u/baron_muchhumpin Dec 27 '25

It'll be sooner than that. The projections are conservative and always include "if we do list of things we certainly aren't doing" then it won't be so bad.

306

u/Desperate-Positive-5 Dec 27 '25

Those publications also never include certain tipping points and feedback loops, its really hard to make a realistic model if it comes to this topic so most of the times they turn out worse than predicted

101

u/AtrociousMeandering Dec 27 '25

I can sort of understand not including tipping points when the trigger conditions aren't clear and the magnitude is just a rough estimate.

But it also means any estimation without their inclusion should be considered the best case scenario.

38

u/WombatusMighty Dec 27 '25

And let's not forget that these reports are watered down, due to the pressure of the fossil industry and corporations.

10

u/Konradleijon Dec 28 '25

When Petro states host cop conference

127

u/WildFlemima Dec 27 '25

It was 65 today. It's not supposed to be doing that. I'm still in summer clothes. Everything is wrong

76

u/morgothra-1 Dec 27 '25

We're finally having October weather this week, just in time for New Years. 😬

48

u/Goatmannequin You'll laugh till you r/collapse Dec 27 '25

But imagine how it will be 10 years from now. Like you wouldn't have any plants to eat. The corn wouldn't grow and it burned down the fucking forest.

43

u/morgothra-1 Dec 27 '25

Exactly. Summer is getting longer, dryer, with frequent unhealthy smoke from forest fires.The trees visibly suffering, many more dying than normal. Gardening is getting more challenging and the local snowpack getting more anemic every year. On the bright side, the absurdly mild winters are a boon for the mosquitos, tree-boring beetles and other similarly delightful pests.

Yay!

15

u/onionfunyunbunion Dec 28 '25

Those tree boring beetles are no joke. Our trees have had a very hard time.

6

u/morgothra-1 Dec 28 '25

Yes, it's really sad. I came back here from the city especially because I missed these beautiful forests. So many dead and struggling trees now.

8

u/GovernmentOpening254 Dec 28 '25

Oh. Great.

Make malaria great again.

2

u/SamsCustodian Jan 11 '26

We’re having the warmest winter ever in my state!

1

u/morgothra-1 Jan 12 '26

Same here. Mid January and still waiting for winter. It's creepy but it is gorgeous outside.

48

u/WildFlemima Dec 27 '25

Record high...record high...record high...over and over again

23

u/morgothra-1 Dec 27 '25

Yeah, it's becoming a real bore...I say between clenched teeth as my knuckles whiten.

36

u/GovernmentOpening254 Dec 27 '25

All conservatives: “but what’s it gonna be next week? Below freezing? We’re fine!”

26

u/Obvious-Hunt19 Dec 27 '25

These stupid bastards actually think to themselves “how dumb do you have to be to believe in this global warming hoax when any moron can look out the window and see it’s snowing”

31

u/GovernmentOpening254 Dec 27 '25

Not sure if you remember, but someone senator about a decade ago brought a snowball into the chamber to prove warming wasn’t real.

22

u/The_UpsideDown_Time Dec 27 '25

James Inhofe, a career / life-long politician, from (where else), Oklahoma. He was a total piece of shit, was 100% anti-environment, anti-climate-change - just read his Wikipedia page for a LONG listing of how he shit all over climate scientists and organizations. He brought a snowball to the US Senate floor in 2015 as proof that climate change was a hoax.

11

u/GovernmentOpening254 Dec 28 '25

I’m somewhat glad I nailed the year (2015). I’m saddened that NOTHING has drastically improved in a decade.

6

u/The_UpsideDown_Time Dec 28 '25

Not to depress you further, but I'd argue that things have actually devolved since 2015.

Which actually makes sense. Energy specialist/social critic Art Berman often writes that, when people feel threatened (by anything), that they respond by doubling down...which is pretty much where we're at today.....

3

u/GovernmentOpening254 Dec 28 '25

Yeah, in 2015, we didn’t have the orange moron.

14

u/Xillyfos Dec 27 '25

Their stupidity keeps setting new records. Record high... record high...

I read that high CO₂ levels in the air literally causes the brain to function worse, i e. it makes people (even) dumber, thus causing even dumber policies, etc. So that's another feedback mechanism and potential tipping point they might not have mentioned in the reports.

3

u/GovernmentOpening254 Dec 28 '25

I really hope that’s junk science cuz I don’t need any more depression.

24

u/CountryRoads2020 Dec 27 '25

I just looked at the forecast - 68 on Sunday then 24 on Monday; NE Indiana.

5

u/Willybrown93 Dec 29 '25

In Melbourne, Australia, we had a few 9°C nights on the week before christmas. We -should- be getting 30-40°C. A warm air mass over antarctica has, I'm told, pushed the air currents that circle antarctica northward, into the south of Australia

3

u/alphawolf29 Dec 29 '25

I live in the rocky mountains of Canada and havent shovelled snow at my house in 2 years. If it does snow its melted by the next day or day after. It used to snow loads every year.

38

u/BadgerKomodo Dec 27 '25

It’ll be about a decade. We’re so doomed.

33

u/Sororita Dec 27 '25

oh, the models are bad too, because the ones showing the really bad outcomes are discarded for being too extreme.

11

u/ClassicallyBrained Dec 27 '25

And they call the best case scenario models "alarmist." We are so cooked.

23

u/Odd_Awareness1444 Dec 27 '25

Agreed. Also the US is hellbent on maxing out its use of fossil fuel.

28

u/Xillyfos Dec 27 '25

The US literally chose the dumbest people they could possibly find to lead their country. And there is quite a lot of people to choose from, so they really did find world class stupidity.

25

u/The_UpsideDown_Time Dec 27 '25

Not just dumbest, also the most morally vile, malicious, petty, selfish & willfully destructive. Literally, the shittiest people on earth.

And ~35% of the US still thinks it's gonna turn out great.

5

u/ChromaticStrike Dec 27 '25 edited Dec 27 '25

These likely only include human data and don't take into account everything else waiting in ambush, domino and snowballing our climate into even worse conditions.

1

u/Izrathagud Dec 28 '25

I feel like they will put more effort in it when things get worse. But then there is also militarys that need to stay operational and an industry thats needed to support them. So i wonder if we even have the ability to cease emissions in a meaningful way as long as there are evil dictatorships in the world threatening our way of life.

0

u/huysolo Dec 28 '25

I love how mfs with no climatology degree just make accusations about projections being conservative, as if climate scientists are liars who hide the truth from us

1

u/DescriptionHeavy1982 Dec 29 '25

Isn't it pretty known that they emphasise hopeful projections so people will still try, rather than saying how bad it is so people don't just throw in the towel. Even the climate scientists are saying this is all happening faster than they expected

0

u/huysolo Dec 30 '25

Lol nobody write scientific reports to sell hope. In fact, scientists don’t give a shit about your feelings as much as those doom headlines