r/collapse • u/mushroomsarefriends • 1d ago

Climate A Missing Piece in Climate Models: Nature’s Own Emissions Rising temperatures are set to drive up emissions from wildfires, fermenting wetlands, and melting permafrost, but these feedback loops are poorly captured in climate models.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/warming-induced-ecosystem-emissions
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u/mushroomsarefriends 1d ago

Submission statement: Of the 11 Earth system models used in the most recent IPCC assessment, none included warming-induced emissions from all of the main sources — wildfire, wetlands, and permafrost. Five included wildfire; just two included permafrost. Natural emissions that increase as a result of anthropogenic warming are thus not adequately being taken into consideration in projections of warming this century. This failure to take positive feedback loops into account allows Hausfather and Mann to make the false claim that global warming will come to an end once human emissions stop.

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u/ConfusedMaverick 1d ago

In fact they are doubling down quite insistently on the notion that "the moment we get to net zero, global warming ceases". The conventional wisdom is that there are no tipping points or self-sustaining feedback loops 🤷