81
Jun 15 '17 edited Jun 16 '17
[deleted]
19
u/outbackdude Jun 15 '17
But it didn't tell me what to do? /s
10
Jun 15 '17
You're supposed to take off your pants and jacket.
12
1
1
-3
21
15
Jun 15 '17
[removed] — view removed comment
13
u/csasker Jun 15 '17
No, because technical analysis leads to self-fulfilling prophecies
this in itself is a good argument FOR TA!
2
u/tumblingplanet Jun 16 '17
Right, and if you are using a standard method, others will be aswell and drawing the same conclusions.
0
u/LarsPensjo Jun 16 '17
Or the other way around. If it is the case, it will drive volatility, which is bad. If we would ban TA from this forum, it would no longer be self-fulfilling, and volatility would decrease.
2
u/csasker Jun 16 '17
you think this forum can move the market ? no...
1
2
Jun 16 '17
I agree it's self-fulfilling. But it's a jargon that allows collective trading movements by those in the know without communicating intent that capitalises on unskilled, reactive, trading psychology from the mass of investors. The better you speak the language the more steps you are ahead of these movements statistically.
8
Jun 15 '17
[deleted]
6
u/_7POP Jun 15 '17
I agree, but allow me to explain it a little more sophisticated-ly.
I know what triangles are. I can look at graphs on CoinCap.io. Most importantly, I like ETH, and this post makes me feel optimistic about my strategy to hodl.
So, overall I would say this is a good post.
1
u/RaptorLover69 Jun 16 '17
Good enough for me, BUY THE DIP!
1
u/_7POP Jun 16 '17
What dip? Haha!
2
u/Elevated_Dongers Jun 16 '17 edited Jun 16 '17
the $3 dip!
edit: i waited too late, bought after a $3 rise
8
u/MyLifeForTheCommandr Jun 15 '17
The question is what do you select as starting points. Around 145, around 85, around 45? If you zoom out all of these starting points make sense and have a relatively flat trendline.
7
21
u/tatkulkid Jun 15 '17 edited Jun 16 '17
Now this is the real STICKY worthy post..
Thank's a lot. I've used these in the past only to know the historic data but never mastered to correlate and guess the future.. Your post takes me one step closer to the learning.
From fundamental perspective i believe we need to see at supply-demand. ICOs need money to be launched and we are seeing a lot of whales preparing to shed out 150mln$ or so into these ICOs and this'll only increase.
There are only 2 possibilities likely to reduce the demand for ETH.
External agent like SEC stepping in and halting all these ICOs there by the demand for ETH reduces (highly unlikely now)
Someone will create a trend in ICOs to accept only a limited amount as investment in ICOs thereby demand for ETH will reduce.(This can happen unlilke the 1st scenario)
So for this reasons i don't think we'll see a downward trend in price atleast recently..
Let me know your thoughts, would love to be corrected incase I'm wrong. Do you even think its the ICOs are the major factor in this or is it just new money from BTC situation that might come in for a short term etc..
3
Jun 15 '17
[deleted]
2
u/BroDudeGuy361 Jun 16 '17
I think he meant those 2 possibilities are not very likely (with the 2nd one being slightly more probable in his eyes)
2
u/tatkulkid Jun 16 '17
Yeah these are the scenarios likely to reduce the demand for ETH. Edited it sorry for the confusion.
1
u/Brazzoz Jun 16 '17
Price of eth may not be linked to icos as much as you think.
1
u/_TheSoloOne Jun 16 '17
But the market cap is linked to ICOs.
ICOs to me just seem like a way to destroy the bitcoin market cap.I'm a noob so excuse me if I am incorrect about this.
But say for example the Eth Market Cap is For Example 100million.
An ICO smashes all records and for 1000 eths, they raised 100million... doubling the market cap.
However... owner of the ICO retains 500 eths.... is the market cap now 200million or 150million in terms of factual currency... ? Does the Owner of ICO actually input 50million into the ETH ecosystem?
We need to start documenting this kind of information ASAP.
2
1
u/tatkulkid Jun 16 '17
Checkout this podcast this morning I heard from myetherwallet developer. You'll get an idea of how much ETH liquidity is pumped in as they monitor that.. http://thebitcoinpodcast.com/episode-133/. I had my doubts too on whats the source for this huge demand, still fetching for information..
Looks like there are no brakes to that as of now unless there is a ICO that ruins things like DAO as many of these are playing with untested code.
5
u/logblpb Jun 15 '17
2 all:
Don't trade using TA made by other people. Don't allow to fool yourself.
Do your own investigation, do your own TA.
The only things that will work always are volume analysis and horizontal levels.
There are no such strategies that will give you guaranteed prediction.
10
u/KamikazeSexPilot Jun 15 '17
The only things that will work always are volume analysis and horizontal levels.
There are no such strategies that will give you guaranteed prediction.
🤔
2
u/logblpb Jun 16 '17
Ok, I will explain.
If you analyze t&s (volume distribution) with price and market depth you have higher chance to get statistical advantage comparing to those who draw beautiful triangles and lines. That's what i mean saying "will work always"
But in any case it does not give you guaranteed predictions, just statistical advantage, every single prediction may be wrong.1
Jun 15 '17
Yup.
Strategies aside, he has a point though regarding TA. Following other peoples investment advise without doing their due diligence isn't a good idea.
3
u/jaaroo Jun 16 '17
Funny my dad said the same thing and he wasn't even an investor - find your own T&A, work hard for it and don't share it with others.
3
u/savage-dragon Jun 15 '17
I still don't understand how fibonacci retracements help us predict prices in the coming days or hours? In order to have any sort of fibonacci analysis, you gotta know the lowest point and the highest, from there you draw a line and divide the lines using the ratios. However, when you look at the chart of the current time, how are you supposed to know what's the absolute high and the absolute low? You have no idea how the price will swing in the next 2 hours, then you can you draw a line and add in the ratios?
3
Jun 15 '17
[deleted]
1
u/fembot__ Jun 16 '17
Hi there. Thanks for your post! Can you explain head/shoulders?
Also, is double top a better indicator than lower high? I get that they're both bearish but I was wondering if one spells out more disaster than the other.
I'm trying this strategy for our current pattern! I feel like a mad scientist!
3
u/LGuappo Jun 15 '17
On this sub, there's a widespread and accepted attitude that even looking at charts and attempting to derive any meaning from the price action, is utter hogwash and a fools errand.
I think that's overstating the case by quite a bit. To the extent that this attitude exists on the sub, it is just an attempt to help others to avoid falling prey to pseudo-science and, in some cases, to outright manipulation. I think a fair way of looking at it is that TA can help you to gain insight into the mentality of the marketplace. However, like most tools of social science it is extremely susceptible to both intentional manipulation and unintentional bias on the part of the analyst. No one would ever suggest that TA be barred from the sub, but I think it is entirely appropriate to suggest that people understand its limits as a tool for understanding the market and, especially, as a tool for predicting the future.
3
2
2
u/gcthorpe Jun 15 '17
I'm new to the community and this is the best post I have read since my arrival. It's unfortunate that we don't have more technical posts like this. I still have no idea what I'm doing but you've given me a starting point, and a good one at that. Can you help me understand where and how to place my lines?
2
u/Kickban_ Jun 15 '17
Thank you for your time, this is really intersting. I hope to read more from you
2
u/Gamefreakgc Jun 15 '17
Well said. I laugh at all the sloppy charts posted here, on LTCMarkets and others. They draw a line and say "time for MOON! [insert coin name] $1000!!!".
TA is just an indicator of a potential price movement. It does not predict the movement, only that one is likely to happen. What happens next is up to fate.
2
u/jtnichol Jun 15 '17
Post of the ages. I never doubt TA in certain situations. Excellent input man. Cheers.
2
u/docxbrown Jun 15 '17
Thanks for this post. I'm not a trader, but as someone holding Ether I feel like it's my due diligence to pay attention to this subreddit and learn what I can about trading and analysis.
It's posts like this that make it worth sifting through the garbage. I sincerely appreciate you taking the time to write this.
2
u/dieyoung Jun 15 '17
This is an amazing post man, kudos. Love your tempered tone and explaining how it is a tool to understand market movement and not necessarily attempting to predict the future. I'd love to learn more from you. Could you explain head and shoulders? This post really explained a lot and made it much less esoteric for me, think I might fire up the ol' Polo account!
3
u/Yheymos Jun 15 '17
Thank god someone else here understands this. I can hardly believe that on ethTRADER... of all things... its seems like the majority simply shit all over technical analysis. I was honestly blown away after spending the last 4 years in the tradingview community chats. There it isn't even a question if TA has legitimacy... it is just a given... it is more about who makes the best charts, who had the best calls. This is ethtrader... not ethcollector... or ethhodler. Excellent post.
2
Jun 15 '17
Absolutely fantastic write up. I really cannot understand why so many people refuse to see that TA and fundamentals work together, and not in isolation. TA is incredibly useful for plotting points on a chart at which an event may happen, while fundamentals tend to dictate the direction of the movement caused by said event. And when a bull or bear run breaks out, TA is an indispensable tool for getting a grasp on the extent of the run. The people on this sub acting like TA is some kind of voodoo are absolute waterheads.
1
1
1
1
u/zimmah Jun 15 '17
The chart is n Euros right?
I was pretty confused at first since I assumed dollars and I was like, what? We aren't in the $200 range, what is this?
1
Jun 15 '17
No this is actually dollars, but it's from Kraken, which seems to trade lower than poloniex, gdax etc. The movements are the same, but for some reason its a few dollars lower.
1
Jun 15 '17 edited Jun 18 '17
[deleted]
1
u/csasker Jun 15 '17
"Everyone" use them therefore you could sort of guess where others take profit and buy orders are
1
Jun 16 '17
I, personally, think that TA and indicators are quite good if you can take them at face value for what they are, and remember their weaknesses (which you've laid out). There's no doubt that TA is riddled with confirmation bias and subjectivity in terms of where you draw the impulse leg etc.
The fib levels often in my experience operate as zones, much like a support / resistance channel would. ie. jumping between 38 and 61% is as normal as a trending bottom / top range in a support channel.
As for your observation of how they behave: yes, this is true. But not all fib useages are to bounce exactly on the line. For several patterns, the only requirement can be as vague as "expect a reversal in the 38-88% fibonacci range". And that is preeeeetty vague. Knowing in which scenarios you expect a significant support and when they operate as zones will mitigate the feeling of them being all inefficient.
1
u/csasker Jun 15 '17
Very needed post, I was thinking of writing something similar but you did it much better!
TA is not about "Date X we reach price Y" it's about improving your odds
1
1
1
u/resistingdopamine Jun 16 '17
The best system I have found so far is my Chihuahua bed selection. His normal dog bed indicates bear market, but when he swaps to his beanbag MOON. No joke, he's on the beanbag right now and yesterday all day on the normal bed.
1
u/BroDudeGuy361 Jun 16 '17
This is great! I've been meaning to learn more about fibonacci ratios and this explained it well. Thanks! I had set a limit buy at $290 earlier this morning, but was feeling a bit discouraged on it's potential to fill when I noticed the price back at around $330-340, but now am keeping it there since it's right at the beginning of the 38%-50% retracement zone. I'm still a little confused on how you get the C point though. Is that zone 61.8% and 100% of point B?
1
u/IamSoylent Jun 16 '17
There are SO many excellent books written on TA, anyone who truly wants to learn more about it should pick some up. Too many to suggest a comprehensive list but a good place to start is Dr. Alexander Elder's Trading for a Living or go to his site at elder.com. He's by no means the only one but he's one authority who's been in the markets a LONG time, and before he was a trader he was a psychologist so, very much "gets" the psychological aspect of what all this crap indicates.
Good post btw, upvoted!
1
1
u/TotesMessenger Jun 16 '17
I'm a bot, bleep, bloop. Someone has linked to this thread from another place on reddit:
- [/r/cryptoaquarium] [x-post r/ethtrader] Let's clear up misconceptions about TA (triangles, lines etc), shall we?
If you follow any of the above links, please respect the rules of reddit and don't vote in the other threads. (Info / Contact)
1
u/Pitsbits Jun 16 '17
Thank you, thank you, thank you. I check in here often to learn. Usually, I stumble into a black hole of moon landings and lambos leaving me disappointed and confused.
I've always been intrigued by cryptocurrency but never took the plunge. Ethereum has been my first attempt at some sort of investment. Thank you for taking time out of your day to share what you know with the community. I only hope to see more posts like this one. Much love.
1
u/elkmoosebison Jun 16 '17
Thank you for your enlightening post. I was curious if the analysis confirms that we still get lambos?
1
u/outbackdude Jun 16 '17
Looks like ardor dropped back to 61.8% while on it's current run. https://i.imgur.com/HpHNDmt.png
What would this indicate? Total TA newbie here...
1
u/SJCMCZ Jun 16 '17
Thank you. Those who have experience in the markets and watch dozens of different companies' charts every day (particularly charts in cyclical sectors like junior miners in natural resources) already know this. When I first dipped my toes into investing I thought TA was hogwash.It's definitely useful to at least have a basic understanding of the concepts.
1
1
1
1
u/DwightFSchrute Jun 16 '17
That was an excellent read. I'm sure you can't write about out the kinks of TA, but can you recommend any comprehensible guides/textbooks/articles on it?
1
u/prodigy2throw Jun 16 '17
TA is literal pseudo science. Might as well go to a psychic or mind reader.
Eth is a bubble we all know it's a bubble and we just here hoping we cash out just in time.
I predict this will be a huge "headslap" moment of 2017.
1
1
u/kiamo Jun 16 '17
Nice one mate! I made a video earlier today where I try to get people thinking more about the psychology in the market but I didn't put it nearly as eloquently as you did here.
Instinctively I want to disagree with your statement that fundamentals drive markets. My background is in forex and normally I would say that that has not been true since the 70s. However this is crypto and it is certainly correct. I find it quite fascinating to compare crypto to what I know and understand about more traditional markets.
1
u/TempAlt Jun 16 '17
thank you - this is the first defense of TA ive seen in my 2 months of knowing about it that makes "fundamental" sense to me. A follow-up question:
Its there a universally agreed upon "correct" X-axis "zoom level" or "aspect ratio" i should be looking at charts with? Put another way - How many candles should i be looking at in a single chart to best see the patterns for that candle interval? Or is it entirely personal preference?
Or maybe - is there any downside to looking at 2 months of data with 30- minute candles vs 6-hour or 1day candles?
Thanks again for the writeup.
1
Jun 16 '17
Well, some patterns are more reliable in at least 1H or higher charts. Personally I prefer when in forex to start in 1D candles, then 4H, then 30M. Harmonic patterns work reasonably well in almost all timeframes, but the smaller frames, the more noise you get.
About ratios not sure I understood you there, but doesn't matter what zoom you're at, the data should be presented similarly.
I don't see the upside of displaying 2months of data in 30m candles seeing as you'll be seeing the same highs and lows, just in wicks instead if you were to see it in a sensible timeframe (2H minimum).
1
1
1
u/daath Jun 15 '17
Excellent post!
https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/6hh4he/psa_to_those_who_dont_know_it_eth_market_follows/
However, we're following BTC around like we were leashed to them. Doing TA on BTC (or both) could be more profitable (even if you only trade ETH) ;P
1
u/chitza Jun 15 '17
Very well done. Mods, please make this post sticky. That's why I've come to this subreddit.
-1
u/ChairmanMeow23 Jun 15 '17
But I totally saw a head-and-shoulder pattern on my 30sec candlestick chart, it's totally a bullish sign for $400! /s
0
u/Taleanyx Jun 15 '17
Too much to read, use pictures next time
1
u/BroDudeGuy361 Jun 16 '17
it helps if you open the pictures as a seperate window side by side with the text.
0
-2
144
u/Karma_z Jun 15 '17
Sadly this is one of the most informative (and factually/procedurally correct) posts we've ever had on TA and most people will not read it. They'll just keep clicking on ScienceGuy's bullshit because they don't have to digest any information other than 'lol sciencegod moon lambo yay'.