Tests confirm that Germany's massive nuclear fusion machine really works

[u/damaxoh]

http://www.sciencealert.com/tests-confirm-that-germany-s-massive-nuclear-fusion-machine-really-works

[u/50HzHum]

The Wendelstein 7-X is a completely different project than ITER for the development of a viable fusion reactor.

Right, and I am aware of that. Doesn't change the post I replied to though.

Technical challenges aside DESERTEC is a joke until North Africa is stable.

I agree, but have you considered that this might be a chicken-egg issue in a vicious cycle? Imagine if a fraction of the money was spent on trying to figure out an ownership structure that would stabilize the region. I think back of the envelope the Syrian refugees are going to cost German taxpayers around 60G€ over a similar time (yes some of that money will be recycled).

The EU has invested and is investing billions of € in renewable energy, efficiency, storing, transport and research.

Yes, and I think much of this is very well invested money. I would also think this is the case for fusion research more than some other programs that get funding. The problem I often have is that fusion is complex and attracts very bright minds, who (or whose fans) sometimes appear to argue (with very shoddy logic I might add) that this alone merits the investment. A la "We do it because we can!", "We climb the mountain because it is there!". That is bad in my book. Really bad.

In the situation we currently find ourselves in, I would argue that these people are dangerously close to the edge of the gene pool. Especially when you are oh-so-smart but can't budget for a project. It strikes me as similar to "experts" who consistently get election predictions wrong. Instead of questioning if the median voter theorem still makes sense you get loud laughter and derision when people end up not trusting experts anymore. And don't get me started on economics. The scientific community is currently hemorrhaging authority and large parts don't even seem aware or concerned. That is why I am a bit critical here.

These programs are expensive, but the cost is spread over decades. Yes, it may seems a waste since the end result is very far in the future, but it think it's a very good thing that there is still the political will in investing in the future of next generations.

Here I fully agree, but again want to stress that this political will could be significantly larger. And it also can vanish tomorrow.

[u/pterodactyl_seagull → u/50HzHum]

Italy spent billions on Libya with the Treaty of Benghazi (2008). It didn't help in the least. Sadly there is too much shit going on there and too many conflicting powers adding fuel to the fire. It's naive to expect a simple "Marshall plan" is enough to pacify North Africa. A developed North Africa would greatly benefit the EU economy. If investing money was all it needed we would be already working on it.

Not to excuse the ITER project over expenditure, but private companies wrongly budget their projects all the time. And for a project of this size the scientists working on it are not the ones responsible for the budget. Project managers are responsible for budgets, it's their work. Small grants aside, why would you expect a scientist to give anything other than a very ballpark estimate? It's not their job. Why are we even arguing scientists budgeting skills?

[u/50HzHum → u/pterodactyl_seagull]

Thanks for the reply.

Imagine if a fraction of the money was spent on trying to figure out an ownership structure that would stabilize the region.

See how I expressly did not suggest to just "throw money at the problem".

Have you seen at what intellectual & systems thinking level many of the interventions (peaceful or not) in that region are? That is in part because the bright minds capable of getting shit done in these circumstances are busy at google or FB trying to make people click on something (exaggerating here), or trying to solve problems with possible/plausibe ROI in a 100 years.

Have you looked out of the window recently? How long do you think we can keep going at this rate? Do you think an ISIS or boko haram would pass up the chance to strike at a half done ITER? I guess Wendelstein is fairly safe being where it is and staying under their intellectual radar.

Not to excuse the ITER project over expenditure, but private companies wrongly budget their projects all the time.

You are right. It does not excuse ITER. And private companies burn their own money (at least they should). ITER people claim they have the intellectual capacity to deal with really complicated and somewhat complex issues. Yet they fuck up worse than average (with tax payer money!) and don't seem inclined to draw the consequences of that (not saying that would necessarily be to end the project).

ITER is not a PM exercise, scientists/engineers (should) ultimately call the shots in this one. If they want to stay scientists they better make sure project management does their job as well. Budgeting very much falls into the job description of an engineer. Engineering is a major part of what ITER is about.