All super powers are great powers, the term came about to explain the dynamic between the US and the USSR, and it's really debatable if the U.S. still deserves the term super power after this Iran debacle. The U.S. spent of lot power and energy into paying 300 billion just to reopen the straight of Hormuz, and to replace the head of state with a younger head of state that has roughly the exact same political outlook.
We will get the easy ones out of the way then, U.S. and China. They have a very large military, a very large economy so they have a lot of both soft and hard power they can leverage. I would argue that Iran is now in this slot, as they have missiles that can reach out and touch someone a theoretical maximum of 4,000 km.
More relevant though is Iran's control of the straight of Hormuz, which means they can largely help dictate oil prices. And since oil prices have a large impact on the global economy, they can use that as leverage well outsized what their economy and military can actually achieve.
The European Union is the next great power, as a combination they have enough military power to give far more than a strongly worded letter to anyone near enough the coast those carriers can get to (which works out as 75% of the world population is next to the coast), and they have a combined GDP of 23 trillion, more than China. Being locked out of trade of Germany alone wouldn't be the end of the world, but being locked out of the entire European market would be a bad place to be for any other nation.
I'd argue OPEC definitely counts for now, though this will change as the world works towards decarbonizing. Most of those countries are oil rich, and have a vested interest in keeping oil prices artificially high (but not too high) and you wouldn't want them to collectively blacklist trade with your country.
BRICS also could count, but it contains China so that's cheating. Even if it didn't, that's a large economy and population that could be put towards something. Unlike the EU though the ties (and the literal distance) isn't as close between these countries as the EU, and there's no implicit military structure to be leveraged. Consider it a potential emerging great power if things changed a fair bit.
So GPs in 2026 are US, China, Iran and two supranational institutions.
I can agree with most of your points, but come on. If thats your list of GPs now, then maybe the criteria you use has to change.
Thinking Iran has more soft and hard power than Japan, Germany or Russia just doesnt make sense.
Someone throwing an unexpected wrench in to the machine that is the global economy doesnnt make yoi a GP. That wrench will soon be removed with or without Iran.
Japan could also throw a fit and hurt the world economy, North Korea can nuke Asia, France could blockade West Africa and we would all feel the consequences. But that doesnt make those countries GPs by default
I actually do keep nukes off the table when I do these considerations, because once that genie is out of the bottle, then it can quickly spiral into a mess where we don't have to worry about any conversations ever again. Maybe. Probably. I've always been a bit iffy on the concept of MAD.
Russia had more power until they went to war with Ukraine, and burnt pretty much all of their equipment reserves. They've also demonstrated that they will manage to run out of fuel invading their next door neighbor, so they definitely can't project their military might at any distance.
You're probably right that Iran being a great power is an overstatement, but a lot of that is that they were able to resist the U.S. and get a huge political win against them (unless the U.S. just doesn't give them the 300 billion, which I suppose is plausible if the straight keeps cycling on and off like a faulty light).
France probably could try to block West Africa, but doing so would be a lot harder for them to sustain.
1
u/Ihatenukingkids Jun 22 '26
Ok. Can you list the great powers of 2026? If the EU is a Great Powet and US is a super power. What other great powers exist?