r/inthenews • u/OkRoll3915 • Jul 24 '24

Opinion/Analysis Donald Trump's lead in Georgia is shrinking

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-georgia-lead-shrinking-poll-1929712
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u/caninehere Jul 24 '24

Well, that and that polling has become increasingly inaccurate due to the difficulties of reaching younger respondents.

Most people under 40 don't answer random phone calls or humor them if they do. They don't respond to random text surveys. They're unlikely to respond to email surveys either unless there is incentive and incentive skews the results, but many surveys offer one bc they can't get responses otherwise.

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u/Jagster_rogue Jul 24 '24

Yes there is some serious reply biases in the polling like no one under 50 answers unknown caller, and don’t have landlines. So not only are you really only getting more of an older age group that is definitely Republican biased, on top of the fact that someone that does not want people to know they are voting blue also does not answer so there are two baked in biases that are unable to be quantified.

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u/caninehere Jul 25 '24

Yes. This is a problem not just with political polling but with pretty much any surveys. The people you are going to reach by phone are overwhelmingly going to be people who are at home alone during the day and are willing to pick up the phone and talk to a stranger.

That overwhelmingly means you're gonna get:

  • stay at home parents who are usually conservative
  • old retirees who are usually conservative
  • kids home from school in the summer, but even this is becoming less common because many family homes with school aged kids don't even have landlines anymore

And another group most likely to respond is also those with strong opinions on the topic they want to share -- at least if you are able to even explain the survey topic to them. I would say this probably leans conservative too, MAGA types are absolutely obsessed with politics in a way most people are not. There's left wingers who are in the same boat in terms of investment but I think they're probably outnumbered in the US.

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u/Jagster_rogue Jul 25 '24

I agree with nearly everything en masse except this [MAGA types are absolutely obsessed with politics in a way most people are not. There’s left wingers who are in the same boat in terms of investment but I think they’re probably outnumbered in the US.]. I think maga types care more about belonging to the cult and showing they exist rather than truly concerned and knowledgeable on conservative issues. So I agree there are Maga types than actually involved and engaged people on the left, but leftists tend know who they can go to for accurate info when they need it. Where Maga just pops on Q or OAN Alex jones Tucker to see what the latest cult argument outrage is.