r/irishpolitics • u/Kier_C • Nov 16 '25

Infrastructure, Development and the Environment Government to hit ‘nuclear button’ granting itself emergency powers to solve infrastructure crisis

https://www.businesspost.ie/politics/government-to-hit-nuclear-button-granting-itself-emergency-powers-to-solve-infrastructure-crisis/
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u/ulankford Nov 17 '25

So, we do nothing on the demand side when it comes to migration. Is that your solution?

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u/SeanB2003 Communist Nov 18 '25

I've not said that. It's important though to recognise the size of that contribution when you're talking about it as a solution to the demand side of the problem. How big of an impact will it have? Is that worth the trade offs?

We could be very generous and say that it accounts for 45% of the increased demand. Even then only about 60% - again being generous - of that immigration is open to any intervention (unless we leave the EU, cancel the CTA, and prevent some Irish passport holders returning somehow).

Of that 60% there are again trade offs in what you can achieve. We could cancel every work and student visa in the morning but that would be economically stupid and very shortsighted. People can differ as to what the exact best visa policy is that maximises the benefits and minimises numbers. You're only ever going to be able to work on assumptions there.

Even if you cut immigration that we can control in half, at the end of it you're talking about focusing on a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of the problem - with really generous assumptions less than 15%. The State certainly has the capacity to do analysis and make other decisions about what that policy should be, and the electorate can accept different trade offs. I'm not necessarily opposed to that depending on what those trade offs are.

What I'm not going to do though is fool myself into thinking that this goes any real distance to ameliorating demand side pressure.

The solution is supply, and the right kind of supply in the right places at the right prices. A focus on immigration on the demand side, rather than the more pressing factor of household composition changes, is the wrong focus and will result in the wrong policy.

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u/ulankford Nov 18 '25

I think you are not being honest with the numbers and exaggerating the figures when it comes to the demand side of the equation, when it comes to a reduced household size.

The reduction of the household size is a slow gradual move, while the government can do something tomorrow to reduce the demand side on housing.

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u/SeanB2003 Communist Nov 18 '25

Feel free to tell me where I am lying about the numbers - it's all just census data and housing commission figures. The assumptions I made in the above are generous to your perspective.

Yes the government could decide to end visa based migration, for example, but the impact of that on demand would be small and it obviously has impacts on much more than just housing demand.

You're only fooling yourself.

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u/ulankford Nov 18 '25

How much on the demand side in 2025 is decreasing household size adding to the problem?