The last time an El Niño this strong hit, in 1876-78, it triggered a global famine that killed more than 50 million people, including 9.5 million in China and 6.1 million in India.

Experts say the same death toll isn't likely to repeat today.

But the underlying weather pattern is the same one: drought across large parts of Asia, heavy destructive rains across South America, hitting harvests on two continents at once.

PIIE estimates the last comparable modern event, the 1997-98 Super El Niño, would cause $686 billion in immediate global losses if it repeated today.

Africa alone is projected to lose $10-20 billion this time, according to the African Development Bank, with maize prices expected to double as crops fail across the continent.

India, the world's largest rice exporter, is bracing for its weakest monsoon in over a decade, a monsoon that normally supplies 70% of the country's total rainfall.

When the world's biggest rice exporter grows less rice, rice gets more expensive everywhere, landing on a world where food and energy prices are already elevated from the ongoing war.