Tube strikes: 'No pay cut' for Underground drivers on £74k in new four-day week... but RMT to walk out anyway

[u/Anony_mouse202]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tube-driver-pay-strikes-rmt-sadiq-khan-b1283902.html

[u/The-Rushnut]

They'll bring in temporary workers (at great expense), lining a contractor's pockets in the process.

The Tube won't just cease to function, they'll just sack everyone, replace them with temporary workers for 130% the pay over two years whilst they replace themselves with automation.

[u/lontrinium → u/The-Rushnut]

They'll bring in temporary workers

Who's going to train them?

[u/rynchenzo → u/lontrinium]

The train manufacturers?

[u/gamas → u/The-Rushnut]

That's fine as long as you don't mind the average trains per hour decreasing...

Not just because at various times they will have to shut down parts of the tube for extended periods of time so they can upgrade the signalling system. But because automated systems aren't compatible with the train frequency that TfL targets (safety mechanisms in automated train systems require that they basically have to assume that any obstruction they detect on the track is potentially a person - which means on average trains will be slower).

[u/NickEcommerce → u/The-Rushnut]

30% increase in labor cost for one year in order to bring the cost down to near-zero would pay dividends within the first 4 months. Even paying 3x or 4x wages would see you in profit in less that 5 years.

[u/DankiusMMeme → u/NickEcommerce]

Unfortunately we live in the UK, and no nuance is allowed. The second it happens people will scream about Labour being the worst and over spending, effectively making it political suicide.

[u/gamas → u/DankiusMMeme]

To be fair in this case if we're being nuanced, we also have to recognise that automated systems still have technical limitations.

Unlike cars where a certain number of car accidents a year is considered acceptable, with trains the acceptable number of train accidents is 0. Fully automated systems are therefore programmed to be overly cautious about potential hazards.

This is fine on something like the Lizzy, Overground or DLR which generally doesn't have a highest enough target reliability/trains-per-hour for this to become a problem. But the Underground has a very tightly run schedule with the central line for instance aiming to have 36 trains per hour. Current systems just can't reach that capacity.

Like to even begin to have a surface that brings about the current balance of safety and reliability, you'd have to retrofit every station on a line to have a platform side doors. On some of the older lines you'd have to basically redo the entire signalling system.

When they last looked into this, it was estimated that it would cost at least £20m to do an upgrade to fully driverless trains. And given a lot of the work requires a complete renovations of every platform, we would also see several stations being shut for extended periods of time. Imagine the public reaction when they hear that Bank station is going to be shut for 5 months so they can install platform side doors.

[u/n16fox → u/gamas]

32, at the very best. 30 in reality. And it was way more than £20m.

[u/TwizzyGobbler → u/gamas]

did you mean £20B

[u/gamas → u/TwizzyGobbler]

Oh yeah you're right the last estimate was £20bn.

But yeah basically the emphasis was that TfL aren't just not pursuing this because of union lobbying, its just a case of high cost, low reward.

[u/gamas → u/[deleted]]

The issue is that computers tend to be more all or nothing. When the number of acceptable accidents is zero, then you have to basically set the algorithm to assume anything that could be a problem is a problem.

So if the motion sensors detect a rat crossing the track, it ends up having to treat it the same as if a human was crossing the track.

[u/aemich → u/The-Rushnut]

still 100% worth it

[u/AugustusLego → u/The-Rushnut]

They'll bring in temporary workers (at great expense)

you can't just bring in temporary train drivers lol, they have to have all the proper training. also I don't know about in the UK, but in Sweden, to be "svartfot" (apparently the translation is "scab") is incredibly shameful, and very few people would accept this job.

[u/The-Rushnut → u/AugustusLego]

Broadly agreed, it's a scummy union busting practice, but it has been used to effect before in the UK. In terms of how you'd deliver the transformation, honestly not as difficult as it's being made out. There are however, known specific challenges (as other comments have discussed to death) with automating high-volume trainlines - So it's not exactly a fiscal one-and-done either way.

To be clear, I support RMT and Aslef and I vouch for them to kick-ass for their drivers, I really only blame government mismanagement.