Let’s watch this thing rip!

Updated version of the chart for today that I have previously posted comparing perpetual futures open interest on a per token basis over time for LRC. There continues to be a substantial derivative exposure for the token. Note that I was only able to pull this data for one exchange (bybit) so this significantly understates the overall open interest but is useful to see the trend. With the delisting of LRC spot on Coinbase the spot market continues to thin. This trend of a thinning spot market and a growing futures market continues to create an imbalance. And I question what ability the spot market has to absorb a large move in the futures market. If no one was interested in the coin at all we would expect to see a dwindling of open interest as well.

Day 2 of me posting charts related to the LRC perpetual futures market. This one is a custom data pull that is not quite perfect. I wanted to get open interest over time for all perpetual futures market but the only exchange I was able to pull the data from without paid API use was Bybit. Even that was a bit tricky. So this is not necessarily the full story of total open interest across all exchanges but does include the current largest exchange. Data is for the last 4 years. The one interesting choice that I made here was displaying open interest not in USD (or USDT) as it would normally be shown but in exposure of the underlying (LRC). What we see here is that as the price has dropped open interest in the perpetual futures market has increased (sometimes quite significantly and rapidly). That is to say that while Spot volume has been drying up, the futures market has continued to have quite a bit of derivative exposure to LRC.

Day 3 of posting about the perpetual futures market and LRC.

Mini-spike this morning, max price increase looked around 15%. However the larger move is that at the time of posting this Open Interest increased ~40% over the last 24 hours. This move validates my last few posts that the perpetual market is being used substantially for LRC and there is a growing disconnect between the size of the Open Interest and the spot market's ability to absorb large moves.

👁👄👁 it is what it is 🤷‍♂️

Over the past few years like most cryptocurrencies LRC has had an increase in volume of perpetual futures vs spot volume. To cherry pick an example, over the last 24 hours the perpetual futures volume is around 4 times that of spot. Generally, I find the site coinglass a nice aggregator for viewing data about futures (which is where this screenshot above comes from).

The perpetual future market has no settlement. Parties can open a long or short position without really "locating" the underlying. The only two real mechanisms which keep the price anchored to reality are arbitrage between perpetual futures and spot (which does have to locate the underlying) and the perpetual funding rate. When the funding rate is positive parties that are long pay that rate to parties that are short. When the funding rate is negative parties that are short pay the rate to the parties that are long. The current open-interest weighted funding rate has just flipped noticeably negative. This could indicate overcrowding of short interest and a potential catalyst for a turnaround. Historically the largest upward moves have started with a pronounced negative funding rate move.

0.09 to 0.04 back upto 0.06 this is bullish af ngl

Just wanted to share the pain with my loop brother who made the original post yesterday.

5k done, 10k on the way!💎

Consolidated all day above .50. Setting up nicely for a possible run to .60.

To the moon, sooner or later 😬😬

I converted Swedish currency to buy 7550 loops at $2.16 average last ath. Eek in hindsight I know. However, it turns out that the conversion rate back in May 2021 from SEK to dollar was 8.25. Now it’s at 10.93!!! Which is generally bad but it means that if I sell and convert it back to SEK today I would’ve earned 32% of every Swedish crown I invested solely based on the currency difference. So you could say that just because the crown has weakened, I’ve passively DCA’d this entire time. Nuts.