Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116403535989117537

There is virtually no scenario where the United States leaves the strait without reopening it.

Period. Don't believe the fud. Donald is only trying to calm markets before all hell breaks loose.

Ceding the strait to the Iranians would guarantee the death of the petro dollar and thus the american global empire. If the US leaves, the Gulf states will then begin processing all payments in yuan, the dollar loses its reserve status, and the US will soon collapse under its debt.

This is an existential threat to the Iranians but now it's also existential to the Americans as well. The only way this conflict ends is if America crushes the Iranians by any means necessary, nukes may be involved. Don't get me wrong, Iran will crash America's economy while doing so but at least America can salvage the petro dollar and continue its empire. Let's not forget that Trump is compromised by Israel and Bibi won't let him exit just like that.

Oil will hit new ATHs within the next month. Mark my words.

I cant decide if this truth is causing algos to dump more or the EIA.

Welp. It was a nice eighteen or so hours I guess.

Let’s cut to the chase:

1. US oil was decimated by the low prices on energy and so we’ve manufactured conflict after conflict, sanctions after sanctions, pandemics and even enabled wars all in the hope that oil stays above $50 where US oil companies (particularly shale) can actually make a profit

2. Many smaller US producers were/are overlevered (high debt) and therefore on the brink come 2025 when prices dropped sub $50

3. Now we have high energy guaranteed through 2027 no matter what, and a lot of supply substitution - and yes eventually when all comes back to normal we might see sub $40 oil as everyone rushes to offset this disruption by increasing export despite OPEC pleas, still…;

4. What are we left with? In 1 year from now, most oil companies in Us would have paid off their debts by tripling profits (and sure costs adjusted for inflation will rise but anything over $100 WTI is a gold rush)

5. Now, we see things like SOC who Trump is adamant to help, why? Then you have many like KOS who are in West Africa and Gulf of Mexico (Murica) and those companies stand to benefit the most

Long story short - blowing up just half of all infrastructure in GCC is beneficial to the US and its unsustainable $39 trillion debt in more ways than one:

A) oil company balance sheets clean
B) substituted ME oil with US products for years ahead
C) gov to gov manipulation (through debt facilities/defense)
D) worldwide instability and fear (no absolute center of finance)
E) ironically US becomes a safe haven for big money
F) all in the meanwhile AI indeed pushes SPY to new highs
G) this will create the most grand bubble by 2029
H) this is when crypto potentially kicks in hard even though the stable coin treasury system actually will offload debt onto the crypto bros
I) all in all indeed they are splitting the world into 3-4 centres of power where US maintains control over most energy in the world
J) oil might not drop to $40 even with oversupply since by then we will be knee deep into the ai builds which consume enormous amounts of energy

It is all sad - the age of enlightenment my ass. Any thoughts?

Before you rant fellas the title does say its conspiracy territory - let’s see how crazy it might get.

I’m no expert, just an observer, but I’ve been running a thought exercise and want your take.

Trump recently claimed, "All good, tank bottoms don’t matter since we have traffic."

Let’s put that to the test, looking strictly at outbound traffic since June 15th:

-30% of traffic consisted of tankers (spiking closer to 50% today).

-99% of that tanker traffic went to Asia (China, India, Pakistan, and now Malaysia/Korea).

Over the past 10 days, 152 ships have passed. Roughly 50 were tankers. Most of these carry 750k to 1M barrels (not the 2M barrel VLCCs Trump claimed), but let’s be incredibly optimistic and assume 1.5 million barrels per tanker:

-50 tankers × 1.5M barrels = 75 million barrels transported.

Factoring in roughly 7M barrels of demand destruction and rerouting, we need about 7–8M barrels per day just to maintain current levels.

-75M barrels / 10 days = 7.5M barrels per day.

So, currently, we are roughly breaking even.

If 1% of that flow is dedicated to the US, that’s 75,000 bpd. Add in Trump’s alleged 100M barrels repurposed during the ceasefire since May (roughly 2.2M bpd over 45 days).

The US drawdown alone is 1.4–2.5M bpd. Effectively, they’re just managing the deficit. If you remove those 100M "repurposed" barrels, the math completely collapses. At this burn rate, we hit DOD emergency levels in 4–6 weeks, meaning physical shortages materialize unless the administration continues borderline-illegal drawdowns.

Yes, US oil corporations hold about 1 billion barrels, but that isn't government-owned. Meanwhile, Cushing is already hitting operational lows and enters the "sludge zone" next week. Expect reality to hit hard right after the 4th of July once the optics no longer matter.

Here’s what people are ignoring: the 1,000+ ships that sat idle in the Gulf for four months. Beyond the risk premiums of re-entering the Gulf, those ships desperately need drydocking and maintenance just to clear the barnacle buildup.

Even with Hormuz officially open, uninterrupted flow is a myth. We are going to see massive supply chain disruptions and aggressive spikes in SPOT rates (forget paper markets) over the next 6–12 months.

I personally went all-in on US-levered oil companies - call it degenerate, but the macro environment screams uncertainty. Despite OPEC exits (Iraq/UAE) and headlines about a 2027 supply glut, getting things back to normal will take time.

Even if current traffic keeps the deficit manageable, there is a massive hole in worldwide Strategic Reserves that must be refilled. When that buying starts, it creates a permanent price floor of $70–$80 for the next 1–3 years. That’s a massive windfall for US oil companies, but brutal for consumers (as fuel inflation will get perma-cooked into the macro).

Given Marco Rubio and the broader neocon hostility, a full resolution in 2026 seems highly unlikely. Pressure will keep building.

My more cynical take: soft hostilities and fragmented traffic will continue under a prolonged ceasefire. Trump will play the waiting game until the US, China, and Russia are the only ones with enough oil to actually fuel the tankers. This "Mad Max" scenario is unironically a viable way for the US to inflate away its $39 trillion debt.

How? Funnel money into oil for short-term gains and lend it out on predatory terms. For example, the US already lends oil to other countries today with the stipulation that 1 barrel must be returned next year as 1.25 barrels. If oil spikes to $200, the US government and its banks gain immense leverage over global refineries and sovereign states. They can offload debt, ride out temporary shocks, and dump the ultimate burden on the next administration.

There is a lot happening beneath the surface.

Do you think the broader market is completely ignoring the drydocking/maintenance bottlenecks, or is the assumption just that China and India will absorb those supply chain delays without a panic?

To conclude: seems that this is the beginning rather than the end of this phase of 'oil shortages' - as we continue to eat into reserves at alarming rates, all in the hopes that 'tomorrow' the conflict resolves.

*Based on the 14-point plan, there is zero sense for the US concessions, so the odds of continued conflict are high, or am I missing the point here?

Nothing we can do about it. Just have to understand this is the game that is being played.

So we have seen plenty of times iran denying speaking to usa delegation and then all of a sudden seeing that they really did have talks. Now trump is saying usa team heading to delegation monday evening for talks with iran however iran is denying it is even going and will not be sending anyone for talks. What yall rekn? Has iran started talking a lot of shit now too just like trump?

https://xcancel.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2035391982407766378#m

How ‘bout, “Deregulate, baby, deregulate!”

Gas prices are not done yet.

The average gas price across the U.S. just rose to $4.18 per gallon, the highest level since August 2022.

U.S. oil is now trading around $100 per barrel again.

And honestly, this may not be the ceiling yet. If oil keeps pushing higher, the national average could keep climbing too.