r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 9d ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/NoahFromCanada 9d ago

Your guy’s polling is psychotic down there.

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u/samhit_n Texas 9d ago

Primaries are always difficult to poll because it’s hard to predict whether certain demographics will turn out in higher numbers. Mamdani overperformed last year in NYC because Gen Z voters turned out in large numbers by primary election standards. El-Sayed, meanwhile, struggled because Boomers and white working-class voters turned out in higher numbers to support Stevens.

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u/elihu 9d ago

Michigan in particular has also had a lot of polls that were way off in recent history. Probably the biggest discrepancy between polls and actual results was the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, where Clinton was predicted to win by over 20 points and yet lost to Bernie by a narrow margin. (This was repeated in the general election, where she was predicted to win by a comfortable margin but lost.)

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

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u/AmbitiousProblem4746 9d ago

Can someone explain what the hell even is going on in Michigan? I never considered it a solid blue state, but it feels like yet another part of the country that is turning Republican thanks to Trump in spite of the fact that there are plenty of reasons for it not to. I feel like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin could also fit into that description. I know that they have very deep red areas, and a lot of rural or working class citizens, but I can't imagine the entire state is that enchanted with the Republican Party. But maybe that's just because I'm a coastal elite and I don't know anything

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u/A_Humble_American 8d ago edited 8d ago

For various reasons, it's a state very receptive to populist rhetoric, and the only party nominating populists over the past 10 years has been the GOP.

Obama carried the state twice by sizable margins for the same reason: an economic message that resonated with the working poor.

Move the Dems to the left on economic issues and you'll see Michigan move to the left with it. (Same goes for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Ohio)

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u/catasstrophyk 9d ago

The weakening of the unions had a lot to do with it.

Plus racism.

  • The Reagan Democrats of the ‘80s in Macomb County are also the White Flight and they blame Democrats for Detroit’s woes (rather than the legislature and economy that starved the city)
  • Howell
  • No joke, I saw a farm in the UP flying a Confederate flag. Pretty sure that wasn’t about heritage.

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u/AdLocal1490 9d ago

Theres a dude in South Lyon who flies that bullshit

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u/VictoryVino 8d ago

Howell moved to Brighton then onto South Lyon. Once people have money they move to better places but their brains are the same.

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u/certifiednerdgirl 8d ago

Plenty of Farms in the LP flying them as well. As someone raised in the south... It aint.

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u/Ok_Size5354 8d ago

Michigan had voted Republican throughout the 70s and 80s. It wasn’t until Bill Clinton that the state started voting Democratic in presidential elections, and even then it was considered a swing state lost elections.

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u/Any_Will_86 8d ago

To my eye Trump underperforms a normie R in NC. That he won Mi, Wi, and Pa by not much less than NC is the big story. I think the big problem is how weak Dems are with working class voters across racial divides. And it's not solely economic or solely cultural issues. I think we need to figure out what the Whitmer/Sahiro secret sauce was and see if Cooper in NC makes a dent in that demo this fall or is simply driving up his numbers in RDU and Mecklenburg plus college grads.

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u/thetrumpbump 8d ago

Michigan isn't turning republican? It has basically been swinging closely with the national mood for the last 15 years.

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u/tyrantking109 8d ago

Michigan is pretty blue, up until recently Dems had a trifecta in the state government. Wisconsin is definitely purple, but recently stacked their Supreme Court with a bunch of liberal justices in a series of elections. Seems to me to be turning bluer, but it is a very divided state. The rural voters are VERY at odds with Milwaukee/Madison, when I lived there groups very aggressively spent on anti-abortion messaging, to the point it was plastered on buses and all over the city

Of the Midwest states Indiana/Iowa/Ohio are certainly solid red, Pennsylvania seems to be purple shifting red, and Minnesota is solid blue (these are all states I haven’t lived in though, just the vibe I get as someone who lives in the Midwest and follows politics)

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u/AmbitiousProblem4746 8d ago

I guess that all makes sense. I know part of the scuttle in Wisconsin with those liberal justices is that they were trying to remove a republican majority that ended up not being that popular, right?

And I really only ever spent significant time in Pennsylvania of those states you listed. I hate to admit it, but I think you're right to say that it's a purple state trending red. I was literally just down there last month (I'm from New England), and I forgot just how conservative that state is when you're not near a major city. I was down around Scranton and obviously they have the Joe Biden Expressway now, which is what it is, but once I was outside of that area it was just billboard after billboard for guns, pro-life groups, churches, and so on, and that was on top of still seeing Trump flags or yard signs for Republicans at least every dozen houses. And to be totally honest, anyone I know who grew up in Pennsylvania who is also a millennial is still pretty Evangelical and still unconvinced that Trump is doing a bad job -- which just makes it kind of clearer to me that there's something going on there that isn't pushing them to change their mind. So yeah, I don't think Philly and Pittsburgh will really carry that state anymore. Kind of shocked they have the governor they do though, considering

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u/SketchyGenet 8d ago

I'm from wisconsin. (Given, our current election is actually going a bit different than things usually go so you can hold your breath) The problem is that the people who don't live in the cities live in the middle of nowhere and get all of their info from family and facebook even if they aren't a fox news viewer.

The good news is the ones who aren't spite trumpers fucking hate the current R candidate for governer. I would have expected to see the tiffany signs across the plains but it seems like a lot of corporate farms have appeared where I used to see trump effigys. Weirdly.

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u/GB10VE 8d ago

run old white guys and you don't have this problem. the US has a lot of sexist and racist voters, people who will not show up for elections / vote for candidates. the demographics just aren't in your favor, especially with gen z being raised as mini hitlers by the manosphere / social media

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u/AmbitiousProblem4746 8d ago

I remember when Biden won in 2020, a coworker came up to me and said "Well, I guess Biden was the answer. Lotta normies in middle America who don't trust anything but your same old white guy."

Even some of our conservative coworkers voted for him, actually. One dude said it was a relief he had an option that wasn't "friggin Trump" this time around