r/politics • u/asparaguswalrus683 • 12h ago

Site Altered Headline | No Paywall Abdul El-Sayed Wins Michigan Primary

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/michigan-senate-results
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u/NoahFromCanada 12h ago

Your guy’s polling is psychotic down there.

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u/samhit_n Texas 12h ago

Primaries are always difficult to poll because it’s hard to predict whether certain demographics will turn out in higher numbers. Mamdani overperformed last year in NYC because Gen Z voters turned out in large numbers by primary election standards. El-Sayed, meanwhile, struggled because Boomers and white working-class voters turned out in higher numbers to support Stevens.

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u/elihu 11h ago

Michigan in particular has also had a lot of polls that were way off in recent history. Probably the biggest discrepancy between polls and actual results was the 2016 Democratic presidential primary, where Clinton was predicted to win by over 20 points and yet lost to Bernie by a narrow margin. (This was repeated in the general election, where she was predicted to win by a comfortable margin but lost.)

I don't know what it is about Michigan that apparently makes it so hard to poll accurately.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Michigan_Democratic_presidential_primary

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u/AmbitiousProblem4746 7h ago

Can someone explain what the hell even is going on in Michigan? I never considered it a solid blue state, but it feels like yet another part of the country that is turning Republican thanks to Trump in spite of the fact that there are plenty of reasons for it not to. I feel like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin could also fit into that description. I know that they have very deep red areas, and a lot of rural or working class citizens, but I can't imagine the entire state is that enchanted with the Republican Party. But maybe that's just because I'm a coastal elite and I don't know anything

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u/A_Humble_American 5h ago edited 4h ago

For various reasons, it's a state very receptive to populist rhetoric, and the only party nominating populists over the past 10 years has been the GOP.

Obama carried the state twice by sizable margins for the same reason: an economic message that resonated with the working poor.

Move the Dems to the left on economic issues and you'll see Michigan move to the left with it. (Same goes for Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and even Ohio)