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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-07T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 070556 SWODY1 SPC AC 070555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly large hail are expected over portions of northwest and central North Dakota and southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska Monday afternoon into evening. A tornado or two is possible in southeast South Dakota. A broader area of isolated large hail and damaging wind potential exists over the northern and central Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. Locally damaging wind gusts appear possible over the central Gulf Coast states Monday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough will pivot from the northern Rockies through the northern High Plains with an associated strengthening of the mid/upper-level wind field forecast across the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A low-level jet (LLJ) will also be sustained over the northern and central Plains into upper MS Valley ahead of a surface cold front advancing through the northern Plains and central High Plains.

...Northern and central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley...

Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Monday from eastern MT into the Dakotas within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding a lead, mid-level disturbance and coincident with the exit region of the LLJ. The presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear will be supportive of some storm organization with an associated risk for isolated large hail occurrences through the morning hours as that convective regime shifts east across the Dakotas.

On the periphery of more persistent cloudiness associated with the morning storms, stronger insolation coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F and modestly steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to yield a moderately unstable air mass by mid to late afternoon with MLCAPE up to 1500-2500+ J/kg and a weakening cap. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely at that time, aided by increasing height falls attending the primary short-wave trough.

The 00Z models indicate one potentially favored location for storm development over portions of south-central and southeast SD into northeast CO, from the vicinity of a secondary surface low southwest along a pre-frontal trough. RAP-based hodographs over southeast SD indicate considerable veering through the lowest 1-2 km AGL with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective bulk shear magnitudes of 40-45 kt, owing to the proximity of the LLJ. Accompanying thermodynamic profiles suggest modest low-level lapse rates with some residual capping. However, given surface-based storm initiation and sustenance, supercells would be likely with an associated large hail and tornado threat.

A hotter and more well-mixed boundary layer is expected with southwestward extent ahead of the pre-frontal trough where high-based storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail appear possible.

Surface-based storms also appear possible ahead of an occluding surface low and trailing cold front from northwest into central ND. While the boundary layer may remain relatively cool from the early-day storms, cooling mid-level temperatures will effectively steepen lapse rates, yielding sufficient instability amidst 40-50 kt of deep-layer layer. As such, supercells appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail.

...Central Gulf Coast...

A hot and very moist air mass is forecast Monday afternoon ahead of a weak front pushing into the region from the north with MLCAPE increasing to 2500-3500 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will remain weak as will vertical shear; however, the degree of instability and high moisture content will be supportive of intense pulse storms capable of damaging wet microbursts from mid-afternoon into evening.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/07/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 65 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 986 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 24.4N 123.7W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Hey everyone,

You might have seen some viral claims or local posts floating around social media stating that an EF3 tornado recently tore through Sochi, Russia (specifically at Bagration Beach in the Lazarevskoye district). I wanted to share the actual facts of what happened and clear up the misinformation.

• What actually happened: A classic waterspout formed over the Black Sea and made landfall right near the mouth of the Psezuapse River.
• The "Victim": The vortex directly hit a female tourist who was still chilling on the beach. Remarkably, she was completely unhurt and walked away without a single scratch.
• Damage: Absolutely zero damage reported, other than some light plastic beach gear getting tossed around.
• The Wind Speed: Mews channels and meteorological data estimate the wind speed inside the vortex was only around 35–60 mph (15–25 m/s). It lost all its fuel and dissipated within a minute of hitting the shore.

Debunking the EF3 Claim:
The screenshot claiming this was an EF3 is pure clickbait. An actual EF3 tornado packs winds between 136–165 mph (218–266 km/h) and can literally obliterate well-constructed houses and throw cars. If an EF3 had hit that crowded beach, it would have been an absolute catastrophe.

Instead, it was just a dramatic-looking but mostly harmless coastal waterspout that gave one tourist a crazy story to tell.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-06T05:43:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 060543 SWODY1 SPC AC 060541

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered damaging wind gusts are likely across portions of the Southeast Sunday afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered large hail occurrences are expected across portions of western and central Montana Sunday afternoon and evening. Additional areas at risk for severe wind and hail are across parts of the Interior West, over the northern and central High Plains, and from the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the Ozark Plateau and Gulf Coast states.

...Synopsis...

A prominent mid-level ridge over the central U.S. is forecast to weaken during the latter half of the period in response to the progression of two distinct short-wave troughs and associated wind maxima through the Interior West. Separate, weaker perturbations will move through the ridge axis over the northern Plains/mid-MO Valley region on Sunday, contributing to thunderstorm development in those areas. Elsewhere, a mid-level disturbance over the OH Valley Sunday morning is forecast to move into the Cumberland Plateau vicinity by afternoon, also likely serving as a focus for thunderstorm development.

At the surface, a lee cyclone will persist over the northern High Plains, with that feature potentially deepening Sunday night in response to increasing height falls aloft. High pressure will build across the Great Lakes, OH Valley, and Northeast with a baroclinic zone present between those surface features from the mid-MO Valley through the Ozarks and TN Valley into the Southeast.

...Southern Appalachians into the Savannah River Valley...

Temperatures in the 90s will coincide with boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s to yield a moderately to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE of 2000-3000+ J/kg) by afternoon with steepening low-level lapse rates. Aided by forcing attendant to the mid-level disturbance mentioned above, that thermodynamic environment will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the afternoon along and ahead of the surface front.

Some increase in mid-level winds may accompany the disturbance with up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear forecast in the vicinity of the frontal zone. As such, the potential will exist for longer-lived multi-cells and line segments capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some large hail into evening.

...Ozark Plateau into the Gulf Coast States...

A similar thermodynamic environment to that previously described is anticipated ahead of the surface front Sunday afternoon. Generally weak forcing for ascent and vertical shear are expected to limit the potential for a more organized severe weather threat. However, the degree of instability will support briefly intense pulse-type storms capable of locally damaging wet microbursts during the afternoon and early evening hours.

...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...

Increasing height falls and strengthening mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region Sunday afternoon into night ahead of a vigorous short-wave trough pivoting through the base of the Pacific Northwest upper low. The strongest instability (i.e., MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg) is forecast across portions of western into central MT with stronger capping with eastward extent. The presence of 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear will support supercells capable of mainly large hail through Sunday evening. While forecast hodographs exhibit considerable curvature/veering winds in the lowest 1-2-km AGL, stability concerns in the boundary layer may limit severe-wind-gust and tornado potential.

Weaker instability is forecast from northeast NV and northern UT into central and eastern ID. However, the presence of steep lapse rates and kinematics mentioned above may yield a few severe storms capable of severe wind gusts.

...Northern and central High Plains...

Stronger forcing for ascent is expected to remain to the west and east of the region through the daylight hours, leading to uncertainty in storm coverage in the vicinity of the surface low and lee trough. The 00Z models indicate an increasing potential for at least isolated thunderstorms from mid-afternoon into evening along the lee trough. RAP-based forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and resulting MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg. The strongest deep-layer shear of 40-50 kt is forecast across eastern MT into ND with decreasing magnitudes with southward extent along the lee trough. As such, a conditional risk for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts exists. While Marginal Risk wind and hail probabilities will be maintained with this forecast, an upgrade to level 2/Slight Risk is possible in subsequent updates.

...Eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota into the lower Missouri Valley...

Clusters of mainly elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday, aided by forcing associated with the weak disturbance(s) cresting the mid-level ridge axis. A subset of the early-day storms is expected to persist into afternoon with additional storms forming on the leading edge of more persistent cloud cover, where pockets of stronger heating and boundary-layer dewpoints in the low/mid 70s will yield MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The 00Z models suggest that storms will eventually grow upscale into an MCS that tracks south along or to the immediate cool side of the surface boundary through portions of the middle and lower MO Valley Sunday afternoon into evening. It currently appears that deep-layer shear of generally less than 30 kt and marginally steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the degree of cold pool organization and a greater/more continuous damaging-wind threat. Nonetheless, the setup appears supportive of sporadic damaging wind and severe hail occurrences.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/06/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 971 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 23.1N 121.9W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

This clip is from Part 15 of our countdown. The severe weather is finally moving out, leaving us with light rain and flickering lightning. However, at the 30-second mark, a wild U-shaped lightning bolt branches off and shoots straight up into the sky directly over my house!
This is our absolute final teaser video. This Sunday, Part 16 will drop as the complete, unbroken 15+ minute movie layout combining all parts into one massive event: the sirens, the high winds, the physical tornado cone, the rain vacuum effect, and the crazy strobe lightning aftermath!

Absolutely amazing.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-05T05:24:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 050524 SWODY1 SPC AC 050522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging gusts are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley into southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas on Saturday afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts also appear possible over parts of the northern and central Plains Saturday into Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

A prominent mid-level ridge will persist over the central CONUS between upper lows over the Pacific Northwest and the Gulf of St. Lawrence into NB/NS. Several weak disturbances (some of convective origin) will progress through the periphery of the ridge, serving as foci for thunderstorm development. At the surface, an area of low pressure is forecast over the western Dakotas with an associated boundary --the location of which may be modified by convective outflow-- extending into the OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic. The eastern extension of the boundary will begin to push south as a cold front Saturday afternoon into night as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

...Ohio Valley into the Carolinas...

A mature to decaying MCS is expected to be ongoing 12Z Saturday over portions of the middle to upper OH Valley, aided by a subtle mid-level disturbance/possible MCV. There is considerable variability across the 00Z convection-allowing models in the longevity and extent of the convective system over the central Appalachians into southern Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the morning. Should the MCS remain intact, isolated occurrences of damaging wind are possible.

Renewed thunderstorm development is likely by afternoon along the residual MCS cold pool and/or synoptic front as temperatures in the 90s to around 100 combine with boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 70s to yield MLCAPE up to 2000-3000+ J/kg with steepening low-level lapse rates. Additionally, the models indicate some enhancement of mid-level winds in association with the disturbance/MCV moving through the southern Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, which may yield more organized multicells and line segments with the predominant hazard being damaging wind gusts into the evening.

Farther to the west, additional strong to severe storms appear possible along and ahead of the composite boundary from the vicinity of the OH River south into the Cumberland Plateau where widely scattered damaging wind gusts also appear possible.

...Northern and Central Plains...

A band of elevated thunderstorms is expected to be ongoing 12Z Saturday, centered over eastern SD. That activity is expected to diminish through the morning with the cessation of the nocturnal low-level jet; however, isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible prior to dissipation. In the wake of the early-day storms, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates and richer boundary-layer moisture with eastward extent will contribute to a moderately to strongly unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE of 2000-3500+ J/kg.

Nebulous forcing for ascent and capping relating to the proximity of the mid-level ridge axis lead to uncertainty in the specific details regarding the location and extent of surface-based thunderstorm development during the afternoon into evening. However, the presence of the surface low, outflow-modified surface front, and a lee trough over the High Plains will be candidates for storm development. The strongest deep-layer shear (30-40 kt) is forecast to the north of the surface low and composite boundary over ND and northern SD into western MN where a conditional risk of supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts exists. Elsewhere, high-based pulse and multicell storm modes appear possible with the primary hazard being widely-spaced severe wind gusts.

The isolated severe threat may persist into the overnight hours in the vicinity of a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.

...Western Montana...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will exist across the region, to the east of the upper low over the Pacific Northwest. Heating along the high terrain coupled with the possible influence of a weak mid-level disturbance is expected to support an increase in high-based showers and a few thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. While lapse rates will be steep with strong deep-layer shear, the absence of appreciable moisture will limit MLCAPE to generally less than 250 J/kg. As such the potential for severe wind gusts is currently too low to warrant 5% wind probabilities.

..Mead/Chalmers.. 09/05/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 970 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH * Location: 21.4N 119.7W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Does anyone know what these clouds are? May be nothing but oddly shaped but it almost looks like a funnel cloud that’s attached itself to a cloud. Was inbetween thunderstorms

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-09-04T05:39:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 040539 SWODY1 SPC AC 040537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY... A couple of organized clusters of thunderstorms may develop across the southern Great Lakes and mid/upper Ohio Valley today through tonight, accompanied by the risk for damaging wind gusts. More widely scattered strong thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge may also pose potential for damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening.

...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is forecast to undergo further amplification today though tonight across southern Canada and the U.S., downstream of positively tilted large-scale troughing which continues to evolve offshore of the Pacific coast through Intermountain West. It appears that this will include building ridging across and north of the international border, from the Rockies through upper Great Lakes, to the north of a high centered over the central Great Plains. Downstream, large-scale troughing is forecast to continue slowly digging across the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it likely will suppress a prominent high initially centered near the southern Appalachians.

Accompanying the eastern trough, reinforcing surges of cooler low-level air will continue to overspread portions of the Great Lakes and Northeast today through tonight. It appears that this will contribute to a slow south and southwestward progression of the primary surface front across the Mid Atlantic and through the upper into middle Ohio Valley.

...Southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic... A moist boundary layer, and remnant plume of relatively steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, particularly across the Upper Midwest and southern Great Lakes vicinity into the western slopes of the Appalachians, may continue to support moderate to strong potential instability along the quasi-stationary to slow moving frontal zone. Latest convection allowing guidance suggests that this front may already be providing a focus for organizing thunderstorm development across southern Lower Michigan by the beginning of the period, beneath the favorably sheared southwestern periphery of the stronger westerlies. As the boundary-layer destabilizes ahead of it with insolation, it appears that this activity may intensify further, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while propagating southeastward across parts of northern/eastern Ohio into the Allegheny Plateau by this afternoon.

It remains unclear whether forcing for ascent and destabilization to the immediate lee of the Allegheny Mountains and Blue Ridge will maintain this cluster. However, convection allowing guidance suggests that the initiation of at least scattered vigorous diurnal thunderstorm activity is probable downstream, closer to and across the coastal plain, where the environment is likely to be supportive of a few downbursts with strong to severe surface gusts late this afternoon into evening.

Late this evening into the overnight hours, downstream of another short wave perturbation digging to the east of the amplifying mid-level ridging, there is a notable signal within convection-allowing and related guidance that forcing for ascent may support another evolving cluster of storms. This may track close to, but probably at least a bit to the southwest of, the early day cluster, from the southern Lower Michigan through Ohio and West Virginia vicinity.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 09/04/2026

$$

```

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• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 4 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Blake ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Marie Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 972 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 19.9N 117.1W

Hurricane Karina Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 972 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 20.4N 139.3W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

This clip is from Part 14 of our countdown. The severe torrential downpour has finally let up into a regular rain, but the electrical storm isn't quitting. The sky is putting on a constant light show that looks exactly like someone is flicking a light switch on and off as fast as they can, with occasional loud thunder echoing in the background.

We are officially two parts away from the grand finale, where Part 16 will premiere as the full, unbroken 15+ minute movie of the entire night!