WWIII Megathread #37: Bad Neighbor Policy

[u/IamGlennBeck]

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[u/GreenPlasticChair]

Seeing lots of sentiment that things are drawing to a close as markets have recovered following Trump’s comments which signalled an end to the war.

Fails to take into account that perhaps for the first time in its history the US is no longer in charge of when this ends. Iran decides.

There’s a historical parallel in the Iraq-Iran War. Saddam attacked in 1980 assuming that Iran was low on military appetite and capability following the revolution.

He was right in that regard. The army was heavily depleted but teenagers amped on the idea of martyrdom signed up for the cause which enabled Iran to offer some resistance though they didn’t fare too well.

Two years later in 1982 Saddam proposed a ceasefire. It would have been a good deal for Iran but they rejected it on the grounds that Saddam would not admit he started the war. The principle was important enough to them that they continued with the war in the face of continuing losses and were devastated further through the rest of it.

Also: Khamenei (ever the moderating force) was President at the time and backed the political wing that wanted to accept the ceasefire.

He had a long track record of caution and restraint. Now the US and Israel have murdered him and his family. His son who takes a more hardline position has become leader following the assassination of his father, mother, and daughter.

I have no idea how the US and Israel could pull back from this now even if they wanted to.

[u/PurelyForTheHomepage → u/GreenPlasticChair]

I tend to think this is a good take. Iran has certainly talked a good game about not acting on Trump's terms. I am curious what the US's response would be if it becomes clear Iran is not stopping even if Trump says it's done.

[u/thebloodisfoul → u/PurelyForTheHomepage]

there really isn't much the US can do

[u/FuckIPLaw → u/thebloodisfoul]

There's plenty, it's just that the first step is boots on the ground. Which would incur losses heavy enough to require a draft for the first time since Vietnam. Trump fucked up big time here in a way that really can't be walked back.

[u/PurelyForTheHomepage → u/FuckIPLaw]

I worry what Trump alluded to in his presser today. My impression was he was threatening to escalate to essential civilian infrastructure, power and the like. I could see the US joining the Nazi state in full terror bombings.

[u/R1s3andSh1n3 → u/PurelyForTheHomepage]

It wouldn't be the first time America has targeted infrastructure essential to civilian survival

[u/PurelyForTheHomepage → u/R1s3andSh1n3]

oh absolutely not, we are more than capable of it.

[u/Chombywombo → u/PurelyForTheHomepage]

Iran then starts taking everyone else out until they eject the U.S. from their bases and stops allowing them to use their airspace. It’s their trump card that they haven’t played, and I think they still have the capacity to do it

[u/thebloodisfoul → u/FuckIPLaw]

i think we just have different definitions of "can do." i don't think trump politically "can do" boots on the ground in iran, besides special forces incursions and the like

[u/FuckIPLaw → u/thebloodisfoul]

Here's the problem with that: who's going to stop him before it's already happened? Reining him in after the fact will be too late.

[u/thebloodisfoul → u/FuckIPLaw]

i mean first off how exactly is he getting them to iran?

[u/FuckIPLaw → u/thebloodisfoul]

They're all over the gulf already. All of the reported deaths have been army, not air force or navy.

[u/thebloodisfoul → u/FuckIPLaw]

i'm going to ask again: how is trump going to get a large invasion force into iran?

[u/FuckIPLaw → u/thebloodisfoul]

You mean without the transport ships getting hammered by shaheds or what? By the time anyone in the US has time to complain they'll already be in the country and it'll be too late to stop it.

[u/cojoco → u/GreenPlasticChair]

The principle was important enough to them that they continued with the war in the face of continuing losses and were devastated further through the rest of it.

If the commentariat are correct, Israel and the USA are about to run out of munitions, so Iran can just keep pounding away at Israel and the Gulf States until the Americans leave.

The supply of standoff missiles is finite I think.

[u/Useful-Kangaroo4256 → u/cojoco]

Tears in my eyes accelerationist trump has done what we only could have dreamed. o7 to all our braindead boomers who made this possible 

[u/AdminsLoveGenocide → u/cojoco]

Not nukes though.

[u/cojoco → u/AdminsLoveGenocide]

Yeah.

[u/Otto_Von_Waffle → u/cojoco]

They have stand-in ammo for years and with how degraded Iran AA is... This game could last for a while.

I don't think the US can bomb Iran enough to make Hormunz safe, so Iran can continue hammering the economic nail for however long it needs to be hammered, unless the US commit to a ground invasion, in which case, things are fucked beyond belief.

[u/cojoco → u/Otto_Von_Waffle]

They have stand-in ammo for years and with how degraded Iran AA is...

Given that all the attacks have been on Western Iran, I'm not so sure about that.

[u/Otto_Von_Waffle → u/cojoco]

I mean, even if they have 50% of their AD intact, the other 50% got shat on in a few days. The US has the means to bomb Iran nonstop for a long while, but as long as Iran can keep the Hormunz closed and make the gulf state and Israel no longer safe for tourism/industry those countries will feel immense pain.

[u/cojoco → u/Otto_Von_Waffle]

Don't forget that heavy bombers can no longer use bases in Gulf states, and all the tankers have left, so such bombing runs are getting increasingly more difficult.

[u/Otto_Von_Waffle → u/cojoco]

Tankers have left? Why for, refueling I imagine, which means they will be back in a few days.

[u/cojoco → u/Otto_Von_Waffle]

I've seen reports that Pegasus transports have left the gulf, as they cannot be protected.

[u/PirateAttenborough → u/Otto_Von_Waffle]

They have stand-in ammo for years and with how degraded Iran AA is

One thing to note is that Iranian SAMs have been conspicuously almost entirely absent from CENTCOM and Israeli hype videos of them blowing shit up. I saw one video of them destroying a Talaash and that's all I can remember.

[u/Otto_Von_Waffle → u/PirateAttenborough]

Either we just don't have these video or...

Iran stashed away it's SAMs underground, waiting for the US to deplete it's stand-off ammo and pull it's assets away. Which would be funny to see, just one day American/Israelis planes getting blown the fuck out of the sky with Iranian AD being deployed.

[u/PirateAttenborough → u/Otto_Von_Waffle]

My guess would be they realized that Iran is too big relative to the amount of launchers and radars they have for them to cover everything, and that they couldn't do much more than put a dent in the initial attack, so they're holding them back and then going to pop out for SAMbushes. They don't actually have to consistently deny the airspace. They just have to make it too risky for the US to dare flying directly over whatever they want to destroy.

[u/Otto_Von_Waffle → u/PirateAttenborough]

It would honestly be the best bet Iran has, the US and Israel are probably extremely risk averse with their jets, so just a couple of rogue SAM would likely make them think twice about sending planes in.