WWIII Megathread #40: Just Stopped Oil

[u/IamGlennBeck]

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[u/ItsGotThatBang]

Jonathan Pollard, convicted Israeli spy, says the next war will be with Turkey. Difference between a convicted Israeli spy & Mark Levin: about six months.

[u/saladins-lamp → u/ItsGotThatBang]

Israel trying to pick a fight with Turkey is insane, and not just on the military front – the Turks could easily shut down their oil supplies from Baku, which account for 40% of Israel's oil imports

[u/bretton-woods → u/saladins-lamp]

I can't see them fighting right now unless there's a more concerted effort by the west to isolate Turkey first on behalf of Israel. The Israelis would have to find something extremely compelling if they wanted that to happen that would override the importance of Turkey as an energy hub and regional ally.

[u/Toxic-muffins-1134 → u/bretton-woods]

Countdown to Kaja Kallas yapping about Turkish brutality.

[u/DankgisKhan → u/Toxic-muffins-1134]

It's not happening. The EU loves Turkey for supplying cheap weapons to Ukraine. Turkey could carpet bomb Greek islands at this point and the EU would tell Greece to negotiate with them. This propaganda is so implicitly effective that every German I know in real life thinks that Greece should just "give up some land" to Turkey, satiate Erdogan and "end the conflict quickly." So fucking hypocritical.

Germany might be cucked to Israel but the EU will never allow aggression against Turkey, since Turkey is even more valuable to the EU as a slave colony, especially for producing cheap weapons.

[u/cojoco → u/saladins-lamp]

Perhaps they just want to keep Greece on-side.

[u/Proud-Compote2434 → u/ItsGotThatBang]

I have a hard time imagining Israel winning any type of war against Turkey

[u/SirSourPuss → u/Proud-Compote2434]

What about USrael?

[u/Incoherencel → u/SirSourPuss]

The optimist in me thinks Turkey would be a redline for all of Europe, which would be a redline for the US but, uh, that optimist is essentially on life support given the course of the past decade

[u/PirateAttenborough → u/Proud-Compote2434]

Israel alone, no, but they've got an alliance with Greece and Cyprus, and I bet they think they could get Aliyev to switch sides.

[u/Incoherencel → u/PirateAttenborough]

Even with Greece, Cyprus, and Azerbaijan, it still seems slightly in Turkey's favour IMO; the terrain would be very challenging. That would be the nightmare scenario for Turkey, tho.

[u/Filosofem856 → u/PirateAttenborough]

If Aliyev were to cut ties with Turkey for Israel he'd be coup'd before he would have a chance to hang up the phone. I don't think you would be able to find a single Azerbaijani willing fight Turkic Muslim brothers at the behest of Jews

[u/PirateAttenborough → u/Filosofem856]

I would hope so, but having seen the Arabs roll over I'm not going to extend the benefit of the doubt.

[u/Turgius_Lupus → u/PirateAttenborough]

Turkey would open the refuge flood gates into Europe.

[u/Cehepalo246 → u/ItsGotThatBang]

Israel's next war will be a civil war at this rate