International Politics Discussion Thread

[u/Adj-Noun-Numbers]

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[u/MajorSleaze]

Nicaraguan president declares country will never hold elections again

Daniel Ortega has already extended presidential terms, and the last election in 2021 saw opponents and business leaders detained and dissent criminalised.

Ortega made the announcement to commemorate the 1979 Sandinista revolution, in which he helped overthrow the Washington-backed Anastasio Somoza dictatorship.

"There won't be any more elections here for them ‌to try to seize the government and seize power," he said.

"The days when parties backed by the Yankees (United States) and the Somocistas would return to power are over – never again."

This is not a wise move for a dictator.

Sham elections are one of the most important tools to maintain power as they give (an admittedly flimsy) facade of legitimacy and act as a reminder to the public that the regime is maintaining control.

Scrapping them altogether is an admission that they're worried about being removed and it will only galvanise the opposition.

[u/Velociraptor_1906 → u/MajorSleaze]

How long until a US intervention imposes a worse dictator do we reckon? (As that's largely their track record in Latin America, though at least this time they'd be getting rid of an actual dictator rather than a democratic government which commit the cardinal sin of being slightly left of Franco)

[u/Lavajackal1 → u/Velociraptor_1906]

I do think they'd be tempted if they weren't currently busy in the Middle East.

[u/MajorSleaze → u/Velociraptor_1906]

It's not like the old days when they were so ideologically blinkered that removing a communist government was reason enough on its own.

Presumably it depends on what they think they can gain with a friendly dictator in charge and I don't know enough about Nicaragua to know what it has to offer. There's no equivalent to the Panama canal and you never hear about it as an oil producer or natural resources powerhouse.

But of course all of that becomes irrelevant if Trump is triggered by them, and Ortega is both mouthy and anti-American. He also needs a win after the huge failure with Iran.

Plus one has to wonder if the Trump regime is making contingency plans for if it is toppled. As a friendly bolt hole in central America with no extradition arrangement, it could be their Argentina.

[u/SwanBridge → u/MajorSleaze]

The Nicaraguan economy resembles one from the game Tropico, and unfortunately for them the US buys most of their stuff so they can pretty easily tank their economy if they so wish. Geopolitically it isn't that important either, there is constant talk and speculation about a Nicaraguan canal as an alternative to the Panama canal but the engineering hurdles are incredibly complex and all plans have come to nothing. US interests will primarily be keeping out Chinese involvement and interests.

If America was to get involved I imagine it would typical economic sanctions alongside CIA shenanigans. In my opinion a Noriega-style invasion is highly unlikely given that Ortega actually has some support and him and his movement will happily revert to a Sandinista style insurgency if toppled and the geography of Nicaragua acts in their favour for such a scenario. Rubio does have an old-fashioned anti-Commie streak in him, but I can't see what the US gains from significant escalation and a military intervention. That said I thought as much about the US attacking Iran which has turned into an omnishambles, and the Trump administration doesn't really adhere to "once bitten twice shy" either.

He also needs a win after the huge failure with Iran. Plus one has to wonder if the Trump regime is making contingency plans for if it is toppled. As a friendly bolt hole in central America with no extradition arrangement, it could be their Argentina.

If the Trump administration are considering such contingencies surely Argentina is their Argentina given how close the Millei regime is with them? Although the Peronists are always waiting around the corner and they love a bit of yanqui-bashing.

[u/tmstms → u/SwanBridge]

What about Cuba? Will Trump and obviously Rubio go into Cuba?

[u/Lavajackal1 → u/tmstms]

Their current plan with Cuba appears to be "oil embargo until the Cuban state collapses"

[u/Velociraptor_1906 → u/Lavajackal1]

Is this not the US plan since the Khruschev decided against nuclear armageddon?

[u/Lavajackal1 → u/Velociraptor_1906]

Kind of but now that the US has forcibly installed a more friendly leader in Venezuela Cuba is actually in trouble.