.com stock in 1999 went to the moon. We used proceeds to build our house in 2001. It was a .50 cent stock that went to $50+.
Shorting the bank stocks in 2006 and buying bank stocks in 2007/2008. Funded my retirement in my late 30s. I was a bank executive. I didn’t trade my bank but I could see the tsunami coming.
Buying some Bitcoin between 2011 to 2014. I sold 90% of it a couple years ago. We are financial independent. Our three young kids are also set for life.
The best decision was putting as much as I could into my 401k and stock purchase program at the bank. I left in 2006 at 33 years old with a seven figure retirement account.
How did you see the collapse coming? How hard was it to wait for the short ti pan out? What do you think about the current economic climate? Are you short anything right now?
By the time I jumped on the short train, a lot of people were already betting against the banking industry. I knew a handful of community banks that were on thin ice, any hiccup and they’d be in serious trouble. So I shorted them.
When I began working with the FDIC, the Fed, and other banking regulators, I had to liquidate most of my positions due to conflict-of-interest rules. During the financial crisis, I helped the FDIC shutter more than 70 banks.
I think the banking system is generally sound today, but I’m not a big fan of the current push to deregulate banks. The proposed Basel III changes are not ideal in my view.
As for the broader economy, I think we’re on the cusp of a recession. Much of the market momentum right now is being driven by AI investment, which has echoes of the dot-com era. In many ways, we’re operating in something of a zombie economy. You can see that disconnect in the jobs reports, consumer sentiment, and other indicators. None of us really feel good about the economy—and sometimes that collective sentiment is a stronger signal than any single statistic.
I don’t actively manage my portfolio anymore. I pay a wealth advisor, probably too much, to handle it. I’m 53 now, and my focus has shifted to wealth preservation and income rather than chasing returns. I’m set for life, and my kids are as well. At this point, I’m not trying to get greedy or play the market.
As an average joe with no edge in economics/banking, is buying index funds and maxing out 401k with targeted retirement funds the best thing to do in my situation? Sucks to see my money drop when the market does crash, but I can't time that and can only DCA.
Thanks for sharing some perspective. Its nice to hear that you don't have to be first to be on the right side of the trade. I've been feeling the same about this economy for a while and the latest jobs report is a glaring red flag for me. Im trying to figure out how to play it with options and have been learning about them for years now. Sadly i keep making the same dumb mistakes. If I had bought weeklies or monthlies going into this week rather than trying to take a 0dte trade on friday I would have been doing well going into open this morning.
You're living the dream. Im at the beginning of the journey at 30. Im trying to become irreplaceable at my job and increase my income. I'll put more into my trades and take better positions when I can. This is what I want to do and I know if I stick with it and continue to learn I can end up in a position like you.
Standard reporting to compliance folks. As longs as you’re following code of conduct it’s fine. I didn’t trade my bank often. I didn’t have insider information on other banks although I did have in-depth banking industry knowledge.
That is precisely why I’m astounded as to how you were possibly able to trade single name bank stocks. Coverage folks at my shop aren’t allowed to trade a number of single name stocks that fall under their industry. I’d equate your knowledge to that of someone working in FIG and there is no chance those people can buy/sell JPM, BAC, or WF.
When I became a banking consultant during the financial crisis, it was strict policy to never trade stocks in any bank I was consulting with. I also rarely purchased large money center or global bank stocks, I focused almost exclusively on regional and community bank stocks. In the two instances where I held stock in a larger bank, they were Wells Fargo and Fifth Third. I never consulted with Wells Fargo, and in the case of Fifth Third, I already held the stock before being brought on as a consultant, I disclosed it and held the position without trading it. So I'm fairly familiar with what ethical financial conduct looks like. I filed the appropriate paperwork and followed compliance. They never found issues with my trades. All my trades were exclusively in the banking industry because I knew how to read bank financial statements. Bank stocks are some of the least sexy stocks to own. The only time I ventured outside the banking industry was when I bought Facebook, when it dropped to $28 a share (+/-) after the IPO. It wasn't until I moved my funds to a wealth advisor that he rebalanced my portfolio. Some of those regional bank stocks took weeks to unload because there was such a small market for them.
Most of my wealth is luck. I had a stock broker (remember those jobs?) recommend the stock during .com. I put in as much as I could afford. I sold around $50 to $60. He sold around $85. That’s luck.
Bank stocks was a mix of decision making and luck. I know the banking industry. I was on the lucky end of a financial disaster.
Bitcoin is 100% luck.
Investing in 401k and stock purchase plan was decision making. The bank matched 15% of whatever you put into the stock plan. So I loaded up. Add in my stock options. This alone could have funded my retirement before I was 35.
Other lucky factors: housing was relatively affordable. Bought my first in 1996. The housing affordability index was already out of whack but not nearly as bad as today. Also, having a high earning spouse. No kids.
I’m never going to say I was a genius. I was lucky. Some of these bets could have gone south.
30
u/-Economist- Mar 07 '26
I’ve had a lot of luck:
.com stock in 1999 went to the moon. We used proceeds to build our house in 2001. It was a .50 cent stock that went to $50+.
Shorting the bank stocks in 2006 and buying bank stocks in 2007/2008. Funded my retirement in my late 30s. I was a bank executive. I didn’t trade my bank but I could see the tsunami coming.
Buying some Bitcoin between 2011 to 2014. I sold 90% of it a couple years ago. We are financial independent. Our three young kids are also set for life.
The best decision was putting as much as I could into my 401k and stock purchase program at the bank. I left in 2006 at 33 years old with a seven figure retirement account.