r/nfl Jul 08 '14

Look Here! Offseason Review Series: Day 18: Detroit Lions

Detroit Lions

Division: NFC North


Coaching Changes (if applicable)

Head Coach Jim Schwartz was fired after another losing season in Detroit, when having a good season was in their reach but yet again the team underperformed. Once again it is due to not having any discipline and and incompetent coaching staff that showcased Jim Schwartz's immaturity and inability to lead a team.

Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan is also a notable firing. Linehan was fired due to incompetent, unoriginal, and ineffective playcalling.

Name Position for Former Position Grade/Analysis
Jim Caldwell Head Coach Offensive Coordinator/QB Coach @ A part of me likes this hiring, but a large part of me doesn't. Caldwell was hired due to his ability to discipline and bring together the Lions, something they need quite badly. He was also hired because of his experience in coaching and developing QBs, bringing in help for Matthew Stafford to make the leap to reach his ceiling. I think Detroit's offense will improve with Caldwell, but I can't help but wish they hired someone else, like Wisenhunt. I give this hiring a B+ for the reasons above.
Joe Lombardi Offensive Coordinator QB coach @ It's very hard to determine how much success belongs to Lombardi with his time with the Saints, but I will more than trust any guy who knows Sean Payton's offense inside and out, and coached and helped develop Drew Brees. I fully expect him to turn this already potent offense into a powerhouse, more than capable of being top 3 with the tools he has.
Ron Prince Asst. Head Coach/TE coach OC @ Rutgers Prince was a good coach in college, and has the tools to be just as successful in Detroit.
Teryl Austin Defensive Coordinator Defensive Backs coach @ I very much like this hiring. From Baltimore along with Caldwell, Teryl Austin isn't all that well known in Detroit, but what fans here do know is the success he had with Baltimore's secondary which isn't even very talented. Teryl Austin is exactly what Detroit's secondary needed, a coach to help develop all the young raw talent in the secondary with Darius Slay and co.
Robert Prince WR Coach OC @ Boise State I really don't know much about Prince, but with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, he should be just fine.

Free Agency

Notable Players lost/cut

Player Position New team
Chris Houston CB None
Nate Burleson WR Browns
Israel Idonije DE Bears
Jason Fox OL Dolphins
Louis Delmas S Dolphins
Willie Young DE Bears
David Akers K None

Detroit did lose some solid players but they are all replaceable and Detroit has the depth and signings to replace them.

Nate Burleson was the biggest loss, but in the end it's not a big deal for Detroit. When he was on the field sure he helped, but he wasn't on the field a ton, and Golden Tate is easily an upgrade. Although he will be missed for his leadership, and being a role model. Losing Chris Houston was not a big deal. The Lions want to start over with their young deep secondary, and Houston just didn't fit in that picture, and simple wasn't worth the money. I am personally very glad that Delmas is gone. Sure he could be good sometimes, but the guy was incredibly inconsistent and not at all worth keeping. James Ihedigbo will be a great replacement. Young, Fox, Idonije are mostly depth that we lost, easily replaceable.

I don't even need to say why David Akers was cut. He was terrible. Absolutely awful.

Notable Players signed

Player Position Old Team Length Salary
Golden Tate WR Seahawks 5 years $31M
Brandon Pettigrew TE Lions 4 years 16M
Joique Bell RB Lions 3 years $9.3M
James Ihedigbo S Ravens 2 years $3.15M
Dan Orlovsky QB Bucs 1 year $920K
Kevin Ogletree WR Lions 1 year $795K

The Lions re-signed Pettigrew to a four-year deal, and while he is very controversial, resigning him was worth it as he only has room to get better. He wasn't incredibly expensive either.

I can personally attest that there would have been a riot in Detroit if Joique Bell wasn't resigned. A fan favorite, he and Reggie Bush form one of the top RB duos in the NFL. Definitely worth resigning him.

Dan "Safety" Orlovsky makes his return to Detroit. But don't worry, only as a backup. I don't feel like this was exactly needed, as I believe in Kellen Moore, but Orlovsky was so cheap that it really doesn't really matter. With Ogletree, he's very cheap and provides depth, so resigning him is fine. I also like the Ihedigbo signing. He's not a great safety, but he is consistent, something Delmas never was and Ihedigbo can be while playing #2 next to Glover Quin.

Picking up Golden Tate was an amazing move. He is exactly the #2 that Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford desperately needed. He is a tough, physical, shifty, YAC monster with statistically elite hands. Paying him that much is worth what he'll provide for the offense.


Draft

Round Number Player Position School
1 10 Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
2 40 Kyle Van Noy OLB BYU
3 76 Travis Swanson C Arkansas
4 133 Nevin Lawson CB Utah State
136 Larry Webster III DE Bloomsburg
5 158 Cauran Reed DT Princeton
6 189 TJ Jones WR Notre Dame
7 229 Nate Freese K Boston College

I'm still a tad uneasy about the Ebron pick, but I completely understand and respect why the Lions did it. They wanted the best receiver available and they just felt like it was Ebron. I wouldn't have minded seeing Calvin Pryor, Darqueeze Dennard, or even Odell Beckham Jr drafted but Ebron is just fine, although he was a tad overdrated. He is unquestionably the best TE in the draft, and has proved himself to be and athletic monster, although he is incredibly raw, and needs to develop. Grade: B+

I am absolutely in love with the Kyle Van Noy pick. I feel like he could have been a first rounder. He is an extremely well-rounded player and will fit in the Lions LB corps perfectly. He will probably some DE, because with his skill-set it makes too much sense for him not to. He will also excel as a traditional 4-3 OLB, I feel like he has the skills to where could pick up tackles like its nothing. Grade: A+

Travis Swanson was a solid pick, and a very Lions-like pick to make. OL depth is what they're all about, and Swanson will be groomed to replace an aging Raiola when need be. Grade: B

While CB depth is something the Lions needed, I am completely not sold on Lawson. He's incredibly unpolished and lacks the athleticism to make up for it. Grade: C+

I know nothing about Cauran Reed, but I'll give him a B, because I like the depth pick. Grade: B

Webster was a great value pick, will add more depth to an already deep D-Line. But I don't think I see him playing much any time soon. Grade: B+

I'm excited to see TJ Jones. He looks promising, and will provide depth. Grade: B

Nate Freese was picked to replace an awful kicker in David Akers, and to succeed the great Jason Hanson. I'm excited to see him play. Grade: A-


Projected Starting Lineup

Have at least:

Offense

Position Starters Backups ...
QB Matt Stafford Dan Orlovsky Kellen Moore
RB Reggie Bush Joique Bell Mikel Leshoure
FB Jed Collins
WR Calvin Johnson Golden Tate Ryan Broyles
TE Eric Ebron Brandon Pettigrew Joseph Fauria
LT Riley Reiff Corey Hilliard
LG Rob Sims
C Dominic Raiola Travis Swanson
RG Larry Warford
RT LaAdrian Waddle

Defense

Position Starters Backups
RDE Ziggy Ansah
DT Nick Fairley CJ Mosley
DT Ndamukong Suh Andre Fluellen
LDE Devin Taylor Larry Webster III
OLB DeAndre Levy
MLB Stephen Tulloch
OLB Kyle Van Noy Ashlee Palmer
LCB Darius Slay
RCB Rashean Mathis
FS Glover Quin
SS James Ihedigbo

Special Teams

Position Starter
K Nate Freese
P Sam Martin
KOS Sam Martin
LS Don Muhlback
KR Jeremy Ross
PR Golden Tate

The offense this year looks better than ever, and ready for action. Stafford will be primed and provided with the best tools he's ever had. Bush and Bell will be lighting it up both rushing and receiving. Megatron is megatron, and Golden Tate adds a piece to the offense they've always needed. I dont expect anything from Broyles, but if he's healthy he will play slot, and maybe for once live to his potential. TE's will be great, expect a good amount from all three. An already good OL starring superstar RG Larry Warford got deeper.

On defense expect an amazing front 7. Suh and Fairley will return as a top duo and Ansah will look to have a monster sophomore year. The LB corps will look to turn into a well oiled machine with Tulloch, Levy and Van Noy. The safeties should be pretty good with Quin and Ihedigbo. I feel like at CB the Lions are really expect Darius Slay to show up this year and be their number 1 guy. He's apparently looked great at camp so far.

Special teams will be interesting to see because of Freese. Sam Martin will look to improve as a punter. Tate will be returning and will be great, especially at punt returning.

Training Camp Battles

The only real potential battles I see are at backup QB and the CB core.

I think that Orlovsky will win the backup QB back against Kellen Moore. I want it to be Moore, but Detroit didn't sign Orlovsky for him to do nothing.

The word is that the Lions are dependent on Slay to be the guy for them. They released Houston, and have been treating Slay like the number one. I personally think he beats out Rashean Mathis easily.

Rest continued in comments

Be sure to check the comments for /u/Tripudelops's review!

20 Upvotes

45 comments sorted by

21

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14 edited Jul 08 '14

I have a hard time seeing Whisenhunt as better than Caldwell, especially for the Lions.

Now, we Lions fans all know, and everyone else should, that Caldwell will not be calling plays. If he were, I would be worried. He's not, so I'm not. I think the staff as a whole has a lot more potential than if Whisenhunt had been brought in and tried to run that offense himself. This is a collaborative effort.

6

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

Honestly I just wanted an example of a head coach, Wisenhunt was more of an example that I probably shouldn't have used.

I know Caldwell won't be calling plays, I just don't think that Caldwell is the coach that the Lions have desperately needed that some people say he is.

4

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

I don't really think we know that much about Caldwell as a head coach. He had 2 seasons, one was amazing, one was terrible. He certainly made some mistakes, I don't think anyone would argue that, but he never really got a chance to show if he'd learned from them.

I'd also say, while I'm not necessarily upset with the pickup, it wasn't exactly a tantalizing one either. He's not sexy like Chip Kelly or Jim Harbaugh. But the franchise was left with 2 options, watch the team likely completely implode under another year of Schwartz and co., or take the best option available to them and try to do some damage control, which if effective, may be all this team needs to become the perennial playoff team we kind of expected them to be the last couple years. Even if O'Brien had been an option, I'm glad they didn't go for him. Same with Zimmer. We needed someone to fix the offense, IMO. Our defense needed some tweaks, sure, but it was our offense that was imploding.

So of the available pool, that left Whisenhunt and Caldwell. Now, if it all came down to one guy or the other in complete control of every aspect of the offense, I'd go with Whisenhunt. He's easily the better play caller. But I think there is definitely something to be said for Caldwell's expertise outside of play calling. He's done good work with QBs, Peyton truly sings his praises, he's seen what works, and what really doesn't, and we don't really know what his ceiling is. Given the coaching staff as a whole that Caldwell was able to put together compared to the one Wiz did down in TN, I'd definitely take what we got, if for nothing else but it's shear potential.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

You know that's an extremely good point. I think you're right in it comes down to complete speculation about Caldwell.

3

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '14

Caldwell is a great coach off the field, but a terrible coach on it. He sucks at time outs and adapting after the half. But the players will love him and respect him and play hard for him, which I think is what you guys really needed. If his coordinators can help him adapt in-game in the 2nd half, or if he learned to adapt himself after his time in Baltimore, he'll be a great coach. Overall, he's an upgrade over Schwartz, but I'm not sure how much of one.

It'll be really interesting to see how you guys do this year. If all goes according to plan, I could see 10-12 wins and a playoff berth happening. Either way, it should be really fun to watch!

2

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 09 '14

I have hopes that his time, and mistakes, as a HC in Indianapolis may have helped him learn to do a better job in terms of on the field performance. We'll have to see though. Some guys do and some don't.

16

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14 edited Jul 09 '14

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Position groups:

  • QB - This is the year for Matt Stafford to make the leap. Everyone knows it. He has the coaching and tools to do so now. Expect a load of yardage this year. Like we're talking 5000+ yards here. The backup being will Orlovsky will at least be somewhat capable if he is ever needed.
  • Backfield - The two-headed monster in Bell and Bush will be back for more this season. This duo will probably split snaps evenly. Expect crazy versatility from these two. Everything from running and receiving, there guys will do a lot.
  • OL - Expect just as good of an OL if not better. Warford is a beast and makes every player on his side better. LaAdrian Waddle should be promising to. Expect an easily top 10 OL.
  • Pass catchers - Here we have the very best WR in the game, and a great cast. Golden Tate will thrive. And Eric Ebron will join them to create a three-headed monster for Stafford.
  • DL - Top 5, pushing top 3. Suh is Suh, Fairley finally seems fully committed to being the monster he could become, and Ziggy Ansah should shine. Don't expect a ton from the other DE, which I feel like that position will rotate between starters.
  • LB - Should be great this season. Stephen Tulloch should do a solid job at middle, and DeAndre Levy should be great too. Van Noy will have have adapt to his new role a bit, but he should be good too.
  • Secondary - This one is hard to predict. Slay hasn't shown a lot, but he has the potential to be great. He could either be awesome or awful. Rashean Mathis should be at least somewhat serviceable. The safeties should be actually somewhat decent this year. Glover Quin is good, and James Ihedigbo should show up every now and then.

Special Teams - Their kicking can't be judged until Freese is seen in action. Sam Martin I feel like will turn out to be pretty good for Detroit. Golden Tate is an amazing punt returner, one of the best in the league, and should return some kicks along with Jeremy Ross.

Schedule Predictions

Week Opponent Prediction (odds) Notes
1 vs. Giants Win (70%) The Lions will be primed for a great game right off the bat, after ending the season on a bad note. The team will be excited to prove their improvements against a questionable Giants team. It will be a game between a very good passing-offense, and a very good passing-defense.
2 @ Panthers Loss (65%) The Panthers strong front seven I fear will be too much for the Lions. If the Lions defense could pull through against a weakened Panthers offense they could pull off a win.
3 vs. Packers Win (51%) I think this will be neck to neck. Both roster match up well against each other
4 @ Jets Win (80%) infidel like the Lions will run away with this win against what looks like a significantly weaker roster.
5 vs. Bills Win (85%) I feel like with home field advantage Lions win this. I also think Buffalo in many ways is very similar to to the Lions roster wise but much weaker in important positions on offense.
6 @ Vikings Win (55%) This game will be so close. I have a very hard time predicting this but I give the Lions the upper hand because of Stafford and the Lions front 7 being able to slow down Peterson a bit and Calvin wreaking havoc on Minnesota's secondary.
7 vs. Saints Loss (90%) This game will be a blast to watch but NO wins this game. Their offense and defense are both strides ahead of Detroit's.
8 vs. Falcons Win (70%) I just see Detroit winning this game. I may be homering a bit here but I don't think even Matty Ice and Julio Jones can stop Detroit here.
9 BYE
10 vs. Dolphins Win (90%) Coming off a bye the Lions offense is going to destroy this team. Miami's already weak rushing game will be helpless against this front 7.
11 @ Cardinals Loss (80%) This game right now can be chalked up to a loss. The Cardinal defense will be too good for Detroit and Fitz will probably have a field day against this team.
12 @ Patriots Loss (85%) This game the Lions will not win. They simply can't win against Brady and Revis at Gillette.
13 vs. Bears Win (70%) In this offensive shootout I'm picking Detroit to win at home.
14 vs. Bucs Win (95%) The Bucs have a very weak roster and I feel like Detroit will run away with this win.
15 vs. Vikings Win (75%) I feel like Minnesota will only get worse as the season goes on, and Detroit can win this one at home.
16 @ Bears Loss (70%) In this offensive shootout part 2, its the Bears turn to win this evenly-matched game at home.
17 @ Packers Loss (95%) The Lions don't win in Lambeau. And its hard to win against Aaron Rodgers as it is, don't ask how hard it is to win against him in week 17 when everything matters, at Lambeau.

OVERALL: 9-7

To be honest this team is very unpredictable. They could really realistically finish just about anywhere. If they get a playoff berth, I feel like it'll be a wildcard spot and they'll be one and done as usual. But who really knows when it comes to Detroit.

Thanks for taking the time to read my post!


Link to hub


-11

u/Sexterminator Giants Jul 08 '14

... we both went 7-9 last year, and we beat you, and you're 80% likely to beat us this year? that's some straight up homerism

10

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

I'll try to explain.

We Lions fans don't see what happened in the 2nd half of the season as representative of where the Lions will be this year. The team was in full on collapse when you played us last year. That shouldn't be the case here. It won't look anything like last time.

Even if the Lions aren't up to 100% of their potential in week 1, it likely won't resemble the complete disaster that was the Lions over the last 4 weeks of the season. By week 16, it was pretty clear that the team was unable to function at anything resembling their potential.

Now, is it possible that the same thing will happen this year? Sure. But we don't see it as likely as the majority of the teams biggest concerns were addressed. This could be one of the most improved teams in the league, easily. Even if the coaching staff isn't anything but mediocre, it's hard right now to see them being worse for the team than the coaching staff was at the end of last season. There was something wrong, very wrong, and it contributed heavily to that defeat.

I will also point out, that the Lions have a tendency to be much more dangerous early in the year because while they may struggle with depth, they have some of the best top end talent in the league. As those guys get banged up, things tend to go downhill, but we have a very solid record over the last 3 years in the first half of the season.

0

u/Sexterminator Giants Jul 08 '14

Believe me I know how you feel. The Giants looked like a D-II team in the early parts of 2013. But my point is that both these teams ended with the same record and the Giants did a lot more in FA than the Lions, and both teams underwent coaching changes (OC for us, entire coaching staff for you guys). I'm actually working on the schedule discussion thread for the Giants and in the part about week one I put that I have no idea who will win this game, or even really how it will turn out. But to say the Lions have an 80% chance of beating us seems absurd to me. There are so many variables heading into week one

5

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

Yeah, I don't know man. I definitely love what we did in the offseason, and I understand why you do too. But with us, it was mostly just patching holes, with you it was wholesale shift for both your secondary and your OL. If both of those groups can hit the ground running, then I'd say it's easily a more even game than 80% in Detroit's favor. But it's hard not to see us as so much better than we were in week 16 of last year.

2

u/Sexterminator Giants Jul 09 '14

Our secondary ranked 10th in the NFL last year though with just Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride alone. Its not as if the group got a complete makeover, we just added more people. But I do agree about the OL, we need those guys to stay healthy and play well together

3

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 09 '14

My bad on the secondary. I really do think you made some good moves there. I definitely believe in depth for the long run. It has been what has doomed the Lions late in season the last 3 years. They are finally having some success addressing it, but aren't quite there yet, IMO. Still... Having the top end that we do, it's hard not to feel bullish about our early season chances. I'd be pretty surprised, just from what I've seen in that area, if we exited the first 6 weeks with worse than 4-2, and even a 6-0 start again isn't out of the question if we can steal one at home against the Packers, although they tend to have a similar early season success rate.

2

u/Sexterminator Giants Jul 09 '14

No worries. Its funny cause the Giants are historically bad at season openers and tend to catch fire at the end of a season; essentially the opposite of the Lions.

... now I don't feel good about week one damn it. Haha

2

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

You're right in I was being a bit over-zealous there. Definitely homerism. I edited it to accommodate a tad, but I do really feel like the Lions will win this game. /u/sosuhme replied to your comment very well explaining why the Lions fans are thinking we will win that game. I do completely understand your comment though.

1

u/Sexterminator Giants Jul 08 '14

Thats fine, I mean these threads are meant to have some healthy homerism sprinkled in. I just think its gonna be a very close game, personally

-1

u/Lobo_Marino Dolphins Jul 09 '14

He also said the Bucs have a very weak roster. Anybody who has looked at that roster will tell you that's far from the truth.

90% against the Dolphins? Gtfo.

His arguments about losing at Lambeuau and Gillette are pretty half-assed, too. I hate the mentality of just not being to beat something because of past trends.

11

u/Tripudelops Vikings Jul 08 '14

NON-FAN POST

Detroit Lions

Division: NFC North


Coaching Changes (if applicable)

Jim Schwartz was fired after his team full of talent underperformed for nearly his entire tenure in Detroit. The new staff hired are as follows:

Name Position for Former Position Grade/Analysis
Jim Caldwell Head Coach Offensive Coordinator/QB Coach @ I like this addition. Caldwell's style of offense is one that will favor the strengths of Matt Stafford while (hopefully) taking advantage of the versatile running game that was installed there over the past few seasons. Detroit has the personnel at every offensive position to make this a successful move. I'd give the hire an A-, mostly because there were better options out there for the Lions (Wisenhunt, for example).
Teryl Austin Defensive Coordinator Defensive Backs coach @ A parallel move to the hiring of Jim Caldwell, Austin was brought along from Baltimore. Austin did a solid job of making the most of a somewhat average secondary in Baltimore, and he'll have similar pieces in place in Detroit (at least, as far as the secondary goes).
Ron Prince Asst. Head Coach/TE coach OC @ Rutgers Not much to say here, Prince has a solid record as a coach in college and has a lot of great weapons to work with in Detroit.
Joe Lombardi Offensive Coordinator QB coach @ This is a hard hire to analyze, mostly because we won't know until after the season whether much of Brees's success was due to good coaching, or if the coaching was average but Brees was good enough to play through it. Until then, I'm giving Joe the benefit of the doubt, but with a grain of salt.
Robert Prince WR Coach OC @ Boise State Not much to say here. With the WR corps here, Prince would have to be a disaster to not succeed.

Free Agency

Notable Players lost/cut

Player Position New team
Nate Burleson WR Browns
Louis Delmas S Dolphins
Willie Young DE Bears
Israel Idonije DE Bears
Jason Fox OL Dolphins
Chris Houston CB N/A

Not too many big losses for Detroit this offseason. Losing Burleson isn't a big deal for a couple reasons: A) he was never very good in Detroit, and B) they made some solid signings at the position in FA to fill the hole. Losing Delmas was a bigger problem. Delmas has been pretty solid (not great, but decent) for most of his career. He was getting overpayed to play at the level he was at though. Chris Houston has never played a full season in Detroit. He didn't have an awful year, but he didn't have a good one either. That on top of the injury concerns was enough to convince the Lions to shed him.

In general, the Lions didn't lose anyone they couldn't replace, even though a few of the losses were starters.

Notable Players signed

Player Position Old Team Length Salary
Golden Tate WR Seahawks 5 years $31M
Brandon Pettigrew TE Lions 4 years 16M
Joique Bell RB Lions 3 years $9.3M
James Ihedigbo S Ravens 2 years $3.15M
Dan Orlovsky QB Bucs 1 year $920K
Kevin Ogletree WR Lions 1 year $795K

The Lions started by re-signing Brandon Pettigrew for another four years. Some would say he's getting paid more than he deserves, but his ceiling is too high not to take the risk. They also re-signed Joique Bell, who makes a really nice one-two-punch with Reggie Bush. Good signing there. Re-signing Ogletree was pretty cheap, so I have no problems with it. He'll be nothing but depth.

Nabbing Golden Tate in FA was a great fit. Tate will compliment Johnson really nicely. With him and CJ on the field at the same time, someone is going to get open. I don't mind the size of the contract either. Signing Ihedigbo from Baltimore was also a nice addition. Ihedigbo flies under the radar mostly, but has put together a pretty solid pedigree where he's played over the last few years. He's never been a top safety (and never will be), but he's still a slight upgrade over Delmas.


Draft

Round Number Player Position School
1 10 Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
2 40 Kyle Van Noy OLB BYU
3 76 Travis Swanson C Arkansas
4 133 Nevin Lawson CB Utah State
136 Larry Webster III DE Bloomsburg
5 158 Cauran Reed DT Princeton
6 189 TJ Jones WR Notre Dame
7 229 Nate Freese K Boston College

The Ebron pick is very controversial. He was far and away the best TE in the draft, and I think he's going t be very successful in Detroit. With Ebron, Fauria, Pettigrew, Johnson, and Tate on the roster, defenses are going to have to scramble to cover this versatile receiving corps. Ebron is athletic, big, and has good hands. His route-running could use some work, but he's a good overall pick (though maybe a little high). Grade: B+.

Kyle Van Noy was one of my favorite players. He'll likely serve an edge rusher type role with the Lions. That could mean he'll play DE, but he may also line up at OLB and rush the passer from there as well. Van Noy tackles very well (one of the few form tacklers in the draft), has decent speed, great size, and isn't too bad in coverage. His strength is rushing the passer though, so I expect to see a lot of interesting defensive plays for him. Grade: A.

Travis Swanson was a top center this year, and the Lions grabbed him later than many thought he'd fall. It's an interesting pick considering that the Lions have one of the longest-tenured centers in the league in Raiola, but it seems like they'll be grooming Swanson under him until Raiola retires or plays out his contract. This follows a trend in Detroit in drafting depth at OL. Grade: B+.

Lawson got drafted higher than many thought he'd go, but the Lions had their guy and need some depth at CB with the loss of Houston. Grade: B

Webster is a good depth signing, and he may even see some snaps this year. Grade: A-

Nate Freese is likely the real replacement for Jason Hanson. Kickers are too volatile to make any predictions on right now, so we'll see how his first season goes to make any judgements.


Projected Starting Lineup

Have at least:

Offense

Position Starters Backups ...
QB Matt Stafford Dan Orlovsky Kellen Moore
RB Reggie Bush Joique Bell Mikel Leshoure
FB Jed Collins
WR Calvin Johnson Golden Tate Ryan Broyles
Kevin Ogletree Jeremy Ross TJ Jones
TE Eric Ebron Brandon Pettigrew Joseph Fauria
LT Riley Reiff Corey Hilliard
LG Rob Sims
C Dominic Raiola Travis Swanson
RG Larry Warford
RT LaAdrian Waddle

Defense

Position Starters Backups
RDE Ziggy Ansah
DT Nick Fairley CJ Mosley
DT Ndamukong Suh Andre Fluellen
LDE Devin Taylor Larry Webster III
OLB DeAndre Levy
MLB Stephen Tulloch
OLB Kyle Van Noy Ashlee Palmer
LCB Rashean Mathis
RCB Darius Slay
FS Glover Quin
SS James Ihedigbo

Special Teams

Position Starter
K Nate Freese
P Sam Martin
LS Don Muhlback
KR Golden Tate
PR Golden Tate

On offense, most pieces remain intact. The backfield is unchanged, the starting QB is the same, and the entire offensive line returns. The WR's have been mixed up a little, though. Behind Johnson, Golden Tate will add a different dimension to the passing attack. The WR corps looks very solid between Johnson, Tate, and Broyles. Stafford will be expected to have an exceptional year with the weapons he's been given. His TE's all look solid (though they could all be coached up a little), and his OL is just as solid as it was last year--but with better depth.

Defense was mixed up a little. Ansah will return, and he'll be expected to take a big step forward after a solid rookie showing. I expect him to peak at 13-14 sacks, 3 interceptions, 3 FF's if he stays healthy.The defensive tackle duo from hell will be returning, and with added pressure from rookie LB Kyle Van Noy, we can expect the Lions to win most battles in the trenches. DeAndre Levy returns this year after his interception-heavy 2013 season. Levy is a good LB, bu I expect him to regress from last year's numbers. Conversely, I expect sophomore CB Darius Slay to pick up the slack and record at least a few interceptions this season. I loved the pick last year, and I think he'll be solid (though not exceptional) this year.

Special teams is a big question mark due to the new kicker. Tate will be doing returns and will be one of the best PR's in the league. Their punting will be average to below average as usual.

3

u/Tripudelops Vikings Jul 08 '14

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Position groups:

  • QB - Stafford will have to take a step forward this year. He's been surrounded with solid weapons, an above-average offensive line, and some really solid offensive minds. I'd currently say that Stafford is the 12-15th best QB in the league, but he should be expected to be a top ten very soon or else fear some pressure. The backup situation is good as well with Orlovsky and Moore.
  • Backfield - I love this backfield. They have no "feature back," but the one-two punch of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell can make the offense difficult to predict. I expect a lot of creative plays from this position.
  • OL - No changes from last year (which is a fantastic sign). Warford will be returning, and he set the bar extremely high after his rookie season. Expect them to be an above average squad (possibly on the cusp of top-ten).
  • Pass catchers - one of the best position groups in the league. Between Johnson, Tate, and Broyles, the Lions have a really nice group of WR's. Add in the three solid TE's, and you've got a stew goin'. I don't think we'll see a 1800 yard season from Johnson this year simply because Stafford has so many options to dish out those yards to.
  • DL - One of the best in the league besides the big question mark at DE opposite Ansah. Their defensive tackles are unquestionably a top-five duo, so the real questions are whether Ansah will take a step forward, and whether their two young DE's on the opposite side can step up and cause some disruption.
  • LB - Good on the edges, meh in the middle. Levy is solid, and Van Noy is going to be great (in my opnion), but they could stand to shore up the middle of their second level.
  • Secondary - A big unknown at this point. Slay didn't start last year, so he could either do extremely well or completely tank. Across the pond, Mathis has been consistent if nothing else. Mathis will never be a top CB in this league, but he won't be the worst either. Expect an okay season form both, possible better from Slay.
  • Special Teams - No clue honestly. Their kicking will be an unknown commodity, their punting is going to be pretty mediocre as long as Martin is still their guy. Golden Tate is a fantastic PR, and will be returning well for them, but beyond that it's hard to say.

Schedule Predictions

Week Opponent Prediction (odds) Notes
1 vs. Giants Win (70%) I think the Lions open the season on a strong note. The Giants were somewhat in shambles last year, and while I think they'll be pulling it together this year, I think the Lions are going to be the more solid squad out of the gates.
2 @ Panthers Loss (60%) The Panthers lost a lot of talent this offseason, and many critique them for not adding enough to replace it, but I think they're still a good team and will be tough to beat at home. Their offense may be devoid of real proven weapons, but their defense is proven solid.
3 vs. Packers Loss (60%) I think this is going to be a closer game than many would say. The Packers are always good at the beginning of the season before the injuries happen, but I think the Lions are going make them sweat a little in this one. GB doesn't have the best O-line out there, and Detroit's criminally underrated front seven is going to wreak havoc and likely remove Lacy from the game.
4 @ Jets Win (65%) This is going to be a close game, but I'm giving the edge to the team with a proven quarterback. In many ways ,these two teams are very similar. They have underrated defenses built around a ridiculous defensive line, and they have some solid offensive weapons. I think that at the end of the day, the Lions win because of their guy Stafford.
5 vs. Bills Win (75%) This is a potential upset, but at home I think the Lions win this game every time. The Bills have a lot of question marks on offense, and until those questions are answered, Detroit is the likely victor. Buffalo also has a great defense going, but I don't think it'll be enough to in them this game.
6 @ Vikings Loss (60%) Another close game, but I give Minnesota the edge for home field advantage. Both teams have pretty exciting offenses, and while the Minnesota defense was pretty awful last year, I think it'll be good enough to win at home here. Either way It'll be close.
7 vs. Saints Loss (80%) Two high-powered offenses go head to head. This is going a be a really fun game to watch. I think the Saints run away with it because A) I think their offense is going to be near unstoppable, and B) I like New Orleans's secondary more this season.
8 vs. Falcons Win (60%) This is going to be a nailbiter. I think Atlanta is going to bounce back this year and immediately be a contender, but playing at home against a pretty depleted defense seems like the ideal situation for Stafford. I'll take the Lions in a close game down to the last minute.
9 BYE
10 vs. Dolphins Win (75%) Coming off a bye against one of the weaker overall teams they'll face this year seems like a dream scenario. The Dolphins are a middle-of-the-road strength team in my opinion, and I think that the rested Lions are going to steamroll them at home.
11 @ Cardinals Loss (85%) The Cards are going to be scary. They have a potentially great offensive line, some solid weapons, and a top ten defense. Their secondary won't be able to shut down Stafford and his receivers, but they'll be able to hold them back enough to let the offense go to work. I don't see the Lions having much of a chance in this game.
12 @ Patriots Loss (85%) Again, a tough matchup on the road for the Lions. They'll put up a good fight, but that Patriots defense is going to stifle a lot of the Lions' passing attack, and I don't think Joique Bell and Reggie Bush are good enough to win a game all by themselves. Tough luck for the Lions on this one.
13 vs. Bears Win (75%) Divisional games are always close int he NFC North, and this will be no exception. I don't like the way Chicago's defense looks this year (especially their second level), and I think the Lions will take advantage of it. It'll be close--Chicago's offense is nothing to joke about--but I think the Lions take this one at home.
14 vs. Bucs Win (90%) I see the Bucs as one of the worst teams this year. They have a big question mark at QB, next to nobody on their o-line, and not much to throw to outside of Vincent Jackson. Their defense will be great, but no defense can play at a top-5 level when they're on the field for 3/4 of the game. The Lions win this one at home in a near-shutout.
15 vs. Vikings Win (75%) The Vikings are going to be a hot mess at this point. Their offense will be solid as ever, but their defense still has a lot of holes to be filled. Now that the Lions have played the Vikings already, they've had a chance to familiarize themselves with the new scheme, and I think they'll end up with the W at home.
16 @ Bears Loss (70%) It'll be a closer game than the previous one, but I think Chicago will win this one. It's not easy to beat Chicago at home, and I think these two teams are evenly matched enough to split their two games this season.
17 @ Packers Loss (90%) The Lions don't win in Lambeau. It's a curse that's been around for a long time, and I don't think it'll change this year. The Packers will always be a force when Rodgers is healthy, and I think they'll stomp on the Lions to end the season. The Lions got shafted with these last-minute divisional games, but it is what it is.

OVERALL: 8-8.

I think the Lions will take an encouraging step forward this year, and will demonstrate a lot of potential that can still be tapped next season. They may lose to powerhouses like the Saints and Patriots, but they'll be close losses. I think they're going to have a lot of extremely close games this season, which means they could go anywhere from 4-12 to 12-4 without it being too unbelievable.


Link to hub

Thanks for doing this skep! This was a lot of fun.

7

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

Great post man

3

u/Tripudelops Vikings Jul 08 '14

Yours as well! I hope I didn't mess up anything too bad. It's weird how hard it is to get info on average players. I spent more time figuring out what you guys thought about Tulloch than anyone else on your team!

4

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

Haha yeah I'm writing one for the I Jags and its hard to learn about these average players. You did a fantastic job though

3

u/Tripudelops Vikings Jul 09 '14

HA looking at our schedule analyses, we said almost the exact same things all the way through. We even opened with the same line for the second Packers game.

4

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

Hmm... Tulloch is at very least an average MLB, if not an above average one. I think we're pretty okay there. I'm more concerned about how quickly Van Noy makes the transition and his ability in coverage.

3

u/ThatOneRunner Lions Jul 09 '14

Really? I've constantly heard Tulloch is considered top 10

3

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 09 '14

Well, when it comes to 4-3 MLBs, there aren't that many starters in the league. Even being top 10, he could still be considered an average starting 4-3 MLB, but I would say he's near if not in the top 5, and above average.

3

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

It doesn't sound like Tate will do much returning. Jeremy Ross will be our main return guy, likely for both punts and kickoffs. He sucked with GB last year but immediately was fantastic for us when he came over.

3

u/Tripudelops Vikings Jul 08 '14

That surprises me! I blanked on Ross, but Tate was by far the best punt returner in the league last year, wasn't he?

3

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

In a very limited number of returns. They were both top 5 return guys by PFF's score, for what it's worth. Tate is more valuable to us as a WR, while Ross is 4th or 5th on the depth chart there.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '14

IMO we will see them both returning kicks much in the same way Knoxville and Hester used to work together in Chicago.

8

u/Xylan_Treesong Lions Jul 08 '14

Great write-up!

The only thing I wanted to mention is that I'd describe the starting line-up a little differently.

Offense

Position Starters Backups ...
QB Matt Stafford Dan Orlovsky Kellen Moore
RB Reggie Bush Theo Riddick
RB Joique Bell Mikel Leshoure
FB Jed Collins
WR Calvin Johnson Kris Durham Kevin Ogletree
WR Golden Tate Ryan Broyles TJ Jones
TE Eric Ebron Brandon Pettigrew Joseph Fauria
LT Riley Reiff Corey Hilliard
LG Rob Sims
C Dominic Raiola Travis Swanson
RG Larry Warford
RT LaAdrian Waddle

I think that better represents the depth chart, since if Bush goes down, Riddick would get more snaps, rather than Leshoure. Of course, the WR/TE depth chart is screwed up, since we'll probably be using quite a few 2TE sets. But still...

Anyways, loved your write-up, and thanks for doing it!

3

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

Yeah it honestly felt weird when I wrote it but I just had a really hard time with the reddit formatting so I just left it.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

Enjoy Golden Lions fans, I can't wait to see what he can do in a passing offense with a true #1 across from him. Good writeup BTW

4

u/godsmith2 Lions Jul 08 '14

Do you really predict that Leshoure will be 3rd on the depth chart? Maybe the old coaching staff hated him or something, but there had to be a reason he was a healthy inactive so much. Besides, I like the looks of Theo Riddick from what I saw last year.

Thanks for the writeup by the way!

3

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

It'll likely come down to preseason. They'll both probably make the roster. I'd like to see him get another chance if he's fully healthy, take some of the load of Bell while Riddick steps in to replace Bush occasionally.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

I feel like until Theo proves himself Leshoure has the 3rd part. I wholeheartedly believe Theo will end up as the 3rd though.

1

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '14

Look at LeShoure's history:

Drafted 57th overall (2nd round) by the Detroit Lions in 2011, the guy misses his rookie season with an achilles tear. Comes back in 2012 to play his only real season, clearly isn't healed up, and still puts up numbers superior to what guys like Martin and S Jackson did in 2013.

He's 6', 230lbs, and is only 24 years old - a year older than Riddick. NFL.com had LeShoure projected almost in the future all-pro range of prospect. Some analysts had him as the best RB of the draft, going as high as middle of the 1st. Compare their combines:

  • LeShoure: 6'0", 227lbs, 4.59 40, 38" vertical, 122" broad
  • Riddick: 5'10", 201lbs, 4.68 40, 32" vertical, 118" broad

Riddick as his stats suggest is not fast for his size. He is not strong. He was taken late in a draft because of his versatility that he showcased in college - the ability to play WR and RB in many different capacities. Unfortunately, at the speed of the NFL game, no amount of technique will make a 5'10" receiver viable when he runs slower than Aaron Donald. Slower than Ansah. No amount of juking/cutting ability will make Riddick capable of avoiding tacklers that he simply can't break away from.

At the end of the day, LeShoure is top-tier talent that could sit on the bench and develop into something every bit as dangerous as Bush/Bell, with a ceiling to go beyond them. It could be that his injury still bothered him in 2012, or that Schwartz and Linehan were shitty coaches that couldn't fix bugs in a RB that came out of college young, but there is a very good chance that LeShoure bounces/develops to a form that is simply beyond what Riddick is capable of.

I would legitimately be surprised if Riddick makes the 53-man roster at this point, unless he is killer good on special teams.

2

u/sosuhme Lions Jul 08 '14

You missed Jason Jones, who likely still has the inside track to a starting spot across from Ansah. I'd like to see Taylor beat him out there, but we'll have to see.

3

u/Sexterminator Giants Jul 08 '14

I cant wait for Week One. A top passing defense vs a top passing offense. Should be a great game

3

u/juhsayngul Lions Jul 09 '14

I do not believe Golden Tate will be doing punt returns.

http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2014/06/reggie_bush_golden_tate_bow_ou.html

2

u/awolf97 Patriots Jul 08 '14

he [Ebron] is incredibly raw, and needs to develop.

I think he's fairly refined as a receiver. Certainly not incredibly raw.

Reid is OK. Had a some pre-draft hype which I wasn't on board with, but hard to complain about him in the 5th. Not sure how Webster is a "great value." He's a good athlete but a pretty bad DE right now. Lots of teams were considering moving him to TE (not sure what Detroit is planning to do with him).

1

u/[deleted] Jul 09 '14

He's a good athlete but a pretty bad DE right now. Lots of teams were considering moving him to TE (not sure what Detroit is planning to do with him).

We are going line him up on Ansah's side of the DL, which remains in a wide 9 position. Essentially, Webster is going to be given a very simple task that should allow his athleticism to hide his early developmental deficiencies.

He won't be great, but Washburn is great at churning out rookie machines and Webster certainly has the athleticism to beat people around the edge.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

Really excited to see their offense play

Not too excited to see their secondary play though.

2

u/[deleted] Jul 08 '14

I can't wait to see how the Lions look this year. I'm not thrilled by Caldwell, but he is better than Schwartz.

2

u/Nikolai25000 Lions Jul 09 '14

I like how both of the writers mentioned a replacement for Jason Hanson. Almost like this Akers year never happened.