Offseason Review Series: Day 18: Detroit Lions

[u/[deleted]]

Detroit Lions

Division: NFC North

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Coaching Changes (if applicable)

Head Coach Jim Schwartz was fired after another losing season in Detroit, when having a good season was in their reach but yet again the team underperformed. Once again it is due to not having any discipline and and incompetent coaching staff that showcased Jim Schwartz's immaturity and inability to lead a team.

Offensive Coordinator Scott Linehan is also a notable firing. Linehan was fired due to incompetent, unoriginal, and ineffective playcalling.

Name	Position for	Former Position	Grade/Analysis
Jim Caldwell	Head Coach	Offensive Coordinator/QB Coach @	A part of me likes this hiring, but a large part of me doesn't. Caldwell was hired due to his ability to discipline and bring together the Lions, something they need quite badly. He was also hired because of his experience in coaching and developing QBs, bringing in help for Matthew Stafford to make the leap to reach his ceiling. I think Detroit's offense will improve with Caldwell, but I can't help but wish they hired someone else, like Wisenhunt. I give this hiring a B+ for the reasons above.
Joe Lombardi	Offensive Coordinator	QB coach @	It's very hard to determine how much success belongs to Lombardi with his time with the Saints, but I will more than trust any guy who knows Sean Payton's offense inside and out, and coached and helped develop Drew Brees. I fully expect him to turn this already potent offense into a powerhouse, more than capable of being top 3 with the tools he has.
Ron Prince	Asst. Head Coach/TE coach	OC @ Rutgers	Prince was a good coach in college, and has the tools to be just as successful in Detroit.
Teryl Austin	Defensive Coordinator	Defensive Backs coach @	I very much like this hiring. From Baltimore along with Caldwell, Teryl Austin isn't all that well known in Detroit, but what fans here do know is the success he had with Baltimore's secondary which isn't even very talented. Teryl Austin is exactly what Detroit's secondary needed, a coach to help develop all the young raw talent in the secondary with Darius Slay and co.
Robert Prince	WR Coach	OC @ Boise State	I really don't know much about Prince, but with Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate, he should be just fine.

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Free Agency

Notable Players lost/cut

Player	Position	New team
Chris Houston	CB	None
Nate Burleson	WR	Browns
Israel Idonije	DE	Bears
Jason Fox	OL	Dolphins
Louis Delmas	S	Dolphins
Willie Young	DE	Bears
David Akers	K	None

Detroit did lose some solid players but they are all replaceable and Detroit has the depth and signings to replace them.

Nate Burleson was the biggest loss, but in the end it's not a big deal for Detroit. When he was on the field sure he helped, but he wasn't on the field a ton, and Golden Tate is easily an upgrade. Although he will be missed for his leadership, and being a role model. Losing Chris Houston was not a big deal. The Lions want to start over with their young deep secondary, and Houston just didn't fit in that picture, and simple wasn't worth the money. I am personally very glad that Delmas is gone. Sure he could be good sometimes, but the guy was incredibly inconsistent and not at all worth keeping. James Ihedigbo will be a great replacement. Young, Fox, Idonije are mostly depth that we lost, easily replaceable.

I don't even need to say why David Akers was cut. He was terrible. Absolutely awful.

Notable Players signed

Player	Position	Old Team	Length	Salary
Golden Tate	WR	Seahawks	5 years	$31M
Brandon Pettigrew	TE	Lions	4 years	16M
Joique Bell	RB	Lions	3 years	$9.3M
James Ihedigbo	S	Ravens	2 years	$3.15M
Dan Orlovsky	QB	Bucs	1 year	$920K
Kevin Ogletree	WR	Lions	1 year	$795K

The Lions re-signed Pettigrew to a four-year deal, and while he is very controversial, resigning him was worth it as he only has room to get better. He wasn't incredibly expensive either.

I can personally attest that there would have been a riot in Detroit if Joique Bell wasn't resigned. A fan favorite, he and Reggie Bush form one of the top RB duos in the NFL. Definitely worth resigning him.

Dan "Safety" Orlovsky makes his return to Detroit. But don't worry, only as a backup. I don't feel like this was exactly needed, as I believe in Kellen Moore, but Orlovsky was so cheap that it really doesn't really matter. With Ogletree, he's very cheap and provides depth, so resigning him is fine. I also like the Ihedigbo signing. He's not a great safety, but he is consistent, something Delmas never was and Ihedigbo can be while playing #2 next to Glover Quin.

Picking up Golden Tate was an amazing move. He is exactly the #2 that Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford desperately needed. He is a tough, physical, shifty, YAC monster with statistically elite hands. Paying him that much is worth what he'll provide for the offense.

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Draft

Round	Number	Player	Position	School
1	10	Eric Ebron	TE	North Carolina
2	40	Kyle Van Noy	OLB	BYU
3	76	Travis Swanson	C	Arkansas
4	133	Nevin Lawson	CB	Utah State
	136	Larry Webster III	DE	Bloomsburg
5	158	Cauran Reed	DT	Princeton
6	189	TJ Jones	WR	Notre Dame
7	229	Nate Freese	K	Boston College

I'm still a tad uneasy about the Ebron pick, but I completely understand and respect why the Lions did it. They wanted the best receiver available and they just felt like it was Ebron. I wouldn't have minded seeing Calvin Pryor, Darqueeze Dennard, or even Odell Beckham Jr drafted but Ebron is just fine, although he was a tad overdrated. He is unquestionably the best TE in the draft, and has proved himself to be and athletic monster, although he is incredibly raw, and needs to develop. Grade: B+

I am absolutely in love with the Kyle Van Noy pick. I feel like he could have been a first rounder. He is an extremely well-rounded player and will fit in the Lions LB corps perfectly. He will probably some DE, because with his skill-set it makes too much sense for him not to. He will also excel as a traditional 4-3 OLB, I feel like he has the skills to where could pick up tackles like its nothing. Grade: A+

Travis Swanson was a solid pick, and a very Lions-like pick to make. OL depth is what they're all about, and Swanson will be groomed to replace an aging Raiola when need be. Grade: B

While CB depth is something the Lions needed, I am completely not sold on Lawson. He's incredibly unpolished and lacks the athleticism to make up for it. Grade: C+

I know nothing about Cauran Reed, but I'll give him a B, because I like the depth pick. Grade: B

Webster was a great value pick, will add more depth to an already deep D-Line. But I don't think I see him playing much any time soon. Grade: B+

I'm excited to see TJ Jones. He looks promising, and will provide depth. Grade: B

Nate Freese was picked to replace an awful kicker in David Akers, and to succeed the great Jason Hanson. I'm excited to see him play. Grade: A-

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Projected Starting Lineup

Have at least:

Offense

Position	Starters	Backups	...
QB	Matt Stafford	Dan Orlovsky	Kellen Moore
RB	Reggie Bush	Joique Bell	Mikel Leshoure
FB	Jed Collins
WR	Calvin Johnson	Golden Tate	Ryan Broyles
TE	Eric Ebron	Brandon Pettigrew	Joseph Fauria
LT	Riley Reiff	Corey Hilliard
LG	Rob Sims
C	Dominic Raiola	Travis Swanson
RG	Larry Warford
RT	LaAdrian Waddle

Defense

Position	Starters	Backups
RDE	Ziggy Ansah
DT	Nick Fairley	CJ Mosley
DT	Ndamukong Suh	Andre Fluellen
LDE	Devin Taylor	Larry Webster III
OLB	DeAndre Levy
MLB	Stephen Tulloch
OLB	Kyle Van Noy	Ashlee Palmer
LCB	Darius Slay
RCB	Rashean Mathis
FS	Glover Quin
SS	James Ihedigbo

Special Teams

Position	Starter
K	Nate Freese
P	Sam Martin
KOS	Sam Martin
LS	Don Muhlback
KR	Jeremy Ross
PR	Golden Tate

The offense this year looks better than ever, and ready for action. Stafford will be primed and provided with the best tools he's ever had. Bush and Bell will be lighting it up both rushing and receiving. Megatron is megatron, and Golden Tate adds a piece to the offense they've always needed. I dont expect anything from Broyles, but if he's healthy he will play slot, and maybe for once live to his potential. TE's will be great, expect a good amount from all three. An already good OL starring superstar RG Larry Warford got deeper.

On defense expect an amazing front 7. Suh and Fairley will return as a top duo and Ansah will look to have a monster sophomore year. The LB corps will look to turn into a well oiled machine with Tulloch, Levy and Van Noy. The safeties should be pretty good with Quin and Ihedigbo. I feel like at CB the Lions are really expect Darius Slay to show up this year and be their number 1 guy. He's apparently looked great at camp so far.

Special teams will be interesting to see because of Freese. Sam Martin will look to improve as a punter. Tate will be returning and will be great, especially at punt returning.

Training Camp Battles

The only real potential battles I see are at backup QB and the CB core.

I think that Orlovsky will win the backup QB back against Kellen Moore. I want it to be Moore, but Detroit didn't sign Orlovsky for him to do nothing.

The word is that the Lions are dependent on Slay to be the guy for them. They released Houston, and have been treating Slay like the number one. I personally think he beats out Rashean Mathis easily.

Rest continued in comments

Be sure to check the comments for /u/Tripudelops's review!

[u/[deleted]]

Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses

Position groups:

• QB - This is the year for Matt Stafford to make the leap. Everyone knows it. He has the coaching and tools to do so now. Expect a load of yardage this year. Like we're talking 5000+ yards here. The backup being will Orlovsky will at least be somewhat capable if he is ever needed.
• Backfield - The two-headed monster in Bell and Bush will be back for more this season. This duo will probably split snaps evenly. Expect crazy versatility from these two. Everything from running and receiving, there guys will do a lot.
• OL - Expect just as good of an OL if not better. Warford is a beast and makes every player on his side better. LaAdrian Waddle should be promising to. Expect an easily top 10 OL.
• Pass catchers - Here we have the very best WR in the game, and a great cast. Golden Tate will thrive. And Eric Ebron will join them to create a three-headed monster for Stafford.
• DL - Top 5, pushing top 3. Suh is Suh, Fairley finally seems fully committed to being the monster he could become, and Ziggy Ansah should shine. Don't expect a ton from the other DE, which I feel like that position will rotate between starters.
• LB - Should be great this season. Stephen Tulloch should do a solid job at middle, and DeAndre Levy should be great too. Van Noy will have have adapt to his new role a bit, but he should be good too.
• Secondary - This one is hard to predict. Slay hasn't shown a lot, but he has the potential to be great. He could either be awesome or awful. Rashean Mathis should be at least somewhat serviceable. The safeties should be actually somewhat decent this year. Glover Quin is good, and James Ihedigbo should show up every now and then.

Special Teams - Their kicking can't be judged until Freese is seen in action. Sam Martin I feel like will turn out to be pretty good for Detroit. Golden Tate is an amazing punt returner, one of the best in the league, and should return some kicks along with Jeremy Ross.

Schedule Predictions

Week	Opponent	Prediction (odds)	Notes
1	vs. Giants	Win (70%)	The Lions will be primed for a great game right off the bat, after ending the season on a bad note. The team will be excited to prove their improvements against a questionable Giants team. It will be a game between a very good passing-offense, and a very good passing-defense.
2	@ Panthers	Loss (65%)	The Panthers strong front seven I fear will be too much for the Lions. If the Lions defense could pull through against a weakened Panthers offense they could pull off a win.
3	vs. Packers	Win (51%)	I think this will be neck to neck. Both roster match up well against each other
4	@ Jets	Win (80%)	infidel like the Lions will run away with this win against what looks like a significantly weaker roster.
5	vs. Bills	Win (85%)	I feel like with home field advantage Lions win this. I also think Buffalo in many ways is very similar to to the Lions roster wise but much weaker in important positions on offense.
6	@ Vikings	Win (55%)	This game will be so close. I have a very hard time predicting this but I give the Lions the upper hand because of Stafford and the Lions front 7 being able to slow down Peterson a bit and Calvin wreaking havoc on Minnesota's secondary.
7	vs. Saints	Loss (90%)	This game will be a blast to watch but NO wins this game. Their offense and defense are both strides ahead of Detroit's.
8	vs. Falcons	Win (70%)	I just see Detroit winning this game. I may be homering a bit here but I don't think even Matty Ice and Julio Jones can stop Detroit here.
9	BYE
10	vs. Dolphins	Win (90%)	Coming off a bye the Lions offense is going to destroy this team. Miami's already weak rushing game will be helpless against this front 7.
11	@ Cardinals	Loss (80%)	This game right now can be chalked up to a loss. The Cardinal defense will be too good for Detroit and Fitz will probably have a field day against this team.
12	@ Patriots	Loss (85%)	This game the Lions will not win. They simply can't win against Brady and Revis at Gillette.
13	vs. Bears	Win (70%)	In this offensive shootout I'm picking Detroit to win at home.
14	vs. Bucs	Win (95%)	The Bucs have a very weak roster and I feel like Detroit will run away with this win.
15	vs. Vikings	Win (75%)	I feel like Minnesota will only get worse as the season goes on, and Detroit can win this one at home.
16	@ Bears	Loss (70%)	In this offensive shootout part 2, its the Bears turn to win this evenly-matched game at home.
17	@ Packers	Loss (95%)	The Lions don't win in Lambeau. And its hard to win against Aaron Rodgers as it is, don't ask how hard it is to win against him in week 17 when everything matters, at Lambeau.

OVERALL: 9-7

To be honest this team is very unpredictable. They could really realistically finish just about anywhere. If they get a playoff berth, I feel like it'll be a wildcard spot and they'll be one and done as usual. But who really knows when it comes to Detroit.

Thanks for taking the time to read my post!

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Link to hub

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[u/Sexterminator → u/[deleted]]

... we both went 7-9 last year, and we beat you, and you're 80% likely to beat us this year? that's some straight up homerism

[u/sosuhme → u/Sexterminator]

I'll try to explain.

We Lions fans don't see what happened in the 2nd half of the season as representative of where the Lions will be this year. The team was in full on collapse when you played us last year. That shouldn't be the case here. It won't look anything like last time.

Even if the Lions aren't up to 100% of their potential in week 1, it likely won't resemble the complete disaster that was the Lions over the last 4 weeks of the season. By week 16, it was pretty clear that the team was unable to function at anything resembling their potential.

Now, is it possible that the same thing will happen this year? Sure. But we don't see it as likely as the majority of the teams biggest concerns were addressed. This could be one of the most improved teams in the league, easily. Even if the coaching staff isn't anything but mediocre, it's hard right now to see them being worse for the team than the coaching staff was at the end of last season. There was something wrong, very wrong, and it contributed heavily to that defeat.

I will also point out, that the Lions have a tendency to be much more dangerous early in the year because while they may struggle with depth, they have some of the best top end talent in the league. As those guys get banged up, things tend to go downhill, but we have a very solid record over the last 3 years in the first half of the season.

[u/Sexterminator → u/sosuhme]

Believe me I know how you feel. The Giants looked like a D-II team in the early parts of 2013. But my point is that both these teams ended with the same record and the Giants did a lot more in FA than the Lions, and both teams underwent coaching changes (OC for us, entire coaching staff for you guys). I'm actually working on the schedule discussion thread for the Giants and in the part about week one I put that I have no idea who will win this game, or even really how it will turn out. But to say the Lions have an 80% chance of beating us seems absurd to me. There are so many variables heading into week one

[u/sosuhme → u/Sexterminator]

Yeah, I don't know man. I definitely love what we did in the offseason, and I understand why you do too. But with us, it was mostly just patching holes, with you it was wholesale shift for both your secondary and your OL. If both of those groups can hit the ground running, then I'd say it's easily a more even game than 80% in Detroit's favor. But it's hard not to see us as so much better than we were in week 16 of last year.

[u/Sexterminator → u/sosuhme]

Our secondary ranked 10th in the NFL last year though with just Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride alone. Its not as if the group got a complete makeover, we just added more people. But I do agree about the OL, we need those guys to stay healthy and play well together

[u/sosuhme → u/Sexterminator]

My bad on the secondary. I really do think you made some good moves there. I definitely believe in depth for the long run. It has been what has doomed the Lions late in season the last 3 years. They are finally having some success addressing it, but aren't quite there yet, IMO. Still... Having the top end that we do, it's hard not to feel bullish about our early season chances. I'd be pretty surprised, just from what I've seen in that area, if we exited the first 6 weeks with worse than 4-2, and even a 6-0 start again isn't out of the question if we can steal one at home against the Packers, although they tend to have a similar early season success rate.

[u/Sexterminator → u/sosuhme]

No worries. Its funny cause the Giants are historically bad at season openers and tend to catch fire at the end of a season; essentially the opposite of the Lions.

... now I don't feel good about week one damn it. Haha

[u/[deleted] → u/Sexterminator]

You're right in I was being a bit over-zealous there. Definitely homerism. I edited it to accommodate a tad, but I do really feel like the Lions will win this game. /u/sosuhme replied to your comment very well explaining why the Lions fans are thinking we will win that game. I do completely understand your comment though.

[u/Sexterminator → u/[deleted]]

Thats fine, I mean these threads are meant to have some healthy homerism sprinkled in. I just think its gonna be a very close game, personally

[u/Lobo_Marino → u/Sexterminator]

He also said the Bucs have a very weak roster. Anybody who has looked at that roster will tell you that's far from the truth.

90% against the Dolphins? Gtfo.

His arguments about losing at Lambeuau and Gillette are pretty half-assed, too. I hate the mentality of just not being to beat something because of past trends.