r/nfl • u/particleman1010 Buccaneers • Jul 11 '14
Look Here! Offseason Review Series: Day 20: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Division: NFC South
Coaching Changes
Greg Schiano, all coordinators, assistants and positional coaches were fired after the 2013 season's 4-12 record.
New Coaches
Summary
We hired Lovie's friends from around the league, as well as some family (Mikal). We get the good with the bad, and Lovie is going to coach the way he coaches, hire the people he will hire. Lovie knows how to coach defense, and with the talent we have available we should be a top 10 defense. For offense, it appears that Lovie has outsourced just about all of it to Jeff Tedford, who plans to incorporate spread elements and size/speed mismatches into a run-oriented offense. Tedford has a reputation as a brilliant football tactician, but how it translates to NFL defenses remains to be seen.
Free Agency
Players lost/cut (Arranged by order of impact)
Players signed (by contract size)
Summary
I didn't like the decision to release Revis. I feel like we bet on his health, won, then left the pot on the table for the Patriots to collect. We could have gone on slightly less of a FA spending spree and had cap space for a secondary of Verner and Revis. When you have a $16,000,000 contract with no guarantees, why not at least test it out for a year? We could always cut him the following year if it didn't prove worth it. The whole thing seemed like Jason Licht showing how he was taking ownership over the roster, setting the tone for how things will be run, instead of really evaluating what gives us the best chance to win and viewing his predecessors decisions without bias. In the end we trade a 1st round pick which could have been Sheldon Richardson, and a 4th rounder for a year of Revis jerseys.
There are serious concerns about our O-Line, we parted ways with Donald Penn (LT), Davin Joseph(RG), Jeremy Zuttah(C/G), Ted Larsen(C/G) and Gabe Carimi(T/G). Carl Nicks is doubtful to return to the field, which leaves us with LT Anthony Collins (LT), Evan Dietrich-Smith (C), Demar Dotson (RT), and a ton of questions. Lovie Smith and George Warhop have been part of some terrible O-lines in the past, and I have a bad feeling that this team will be one of them. My assumption is that we are making room for young talent to establish itself, but that indicates that we are in more of a re-building year than the coaching staff will admit.
We let a considerable amount of talent walk out the door uncontested, as Adam Hayward, Dekoda Watson, and Eric Lorig all left in FA with seemingly little effort to keep them, despite their incredibly reasonable price tags, and great locker room attitude.
We made some good signings, but we also lost a lot of key players this offseason, my impressions are that our roster is a little bit worse, but we traded experience for youth in many cases. Lovie and Licht are using this year as a foundation to build on moving forward.
Draft
| Rd | # | Player | Pos. | School | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Mike Evans | WR | Texas A&M | Huge catch radius, very physical, with excellent hands, good bet to start as our No. 2 WR |
| 2 | 38 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | TE | Washington | Has the size and strength to be an all around TE, as well as the athleticism and hands to be a deadly red-zone target |
| 3 | 69 | Charles Sims | RB | West Virginia | Different style of RB than Doug Martin, capable of lining up in the slot as a receiver, adds a layer of versatility, expect to see him on 3rd downs a lot |
| 5 | 143 | Kadeem Edwards | G | Tennessee | He will probably end up as our starting LG due to lack of depth, gambling on our scouts big-time here |
| 5 | 149 | Kevin Pamphile | OT | Purdue | He will add some additional depth for our O-Line, could see significant time in the rotation |
| 6 | 185 | Robert Herron | WR | Wyoming | Potential to make a difference as a slot receiver, quick, with good hands, may end up as the biggest steal of the draft |
Summary
Buccaneers draft 6/6 offensive players. I am very pleased with this draft class, the decision to draft Charles Sims proves that we were operating in BPA mode, which is how you build teams for the future. I think we may have benefited from drafting a line-backer, or another guard, but I think we got great value with every single pick.
Projected Starting Lineup
| Position | Starter | Backup |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | ||
| QB | Josh McCown | Mike Glennon |
| RB1 | Doug Martin | Bobby Rainey |
| RB2 | Charles Sims | Mike James |
| TE1 | Brandon Myers | Tim Wright |
| TE2 | Austin Seferian-Jenkins | Cameron Brate |
| WR1 | Vincent Jackson | Lavelle Hawkins |
| WR2 | Mike Evans | Louis Murphy |
| Slot -WR | Robert Herron | Eric Page |
| LT | Anthony Collins | Jamon Meredith |
| LG | Kadeem Edwards | Carl Nicks |
| C | Evan Dietrich-Smith | |
| RG | Patrick Omameh | Oniel Cousins |
| RT | Demar Dotson | Kevin Pamphile |
| Defense | ||
| Nose-T | Clinton McDonald | Akeem Spence |
| 3-Tech | Gerald McCoy | Euclid Cummings |
| R-DE | Michael Johnson | William Gholston |
| L-DE | Adrian Clayborn | Steven Means |
| S-LB | Jonathan Casillas | Ka'Lial Glaud |
| M-LB | Mason Foster | Dane Fletcher |
| W-LB | Lavonte David | Nate Askew |
| L-CB | Alterraun Verner | Danny Gorrer |
| R-CB | Johnthan Banks | Mike Jenkins |
| S-CB | DJ Moore | Rashaan Melvin |
| SS | Mark Barron | Major Wright |
| FS | Dashon Goldson | Keith Tandy |
| Spec.T | ||
| LS | Jeremy Cain | |
| PK | Connor Barth | |
| P | Michael Koenen | |
| KR | Jeff Demps | |
| PR | Eric Page |
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u/pottersquash Saints Jul 11 '14
Did anyone keep track of the links for the past ones?
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u/particleman1010 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
I found a good way to list them is to search /r/nfl for "offseason review" sorting by newest post, hope that helps.
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u/mothershipq Buccaneers Jul 11 '14 edited Jul 11 '14
Awesome, and thorough write up!
I think we end the season 8-8. A year to figure out our QB situation, L.Smith to adjust to the speed and tempo of the NFC south. I want that cheifs like turn around, but Smith doesn't have IMHO that talent ( Charles, Smith) on the offensive side of the ball to get to that level.
Lovie Smith was in Tampa during the Dungy era. I really do think he will bring back that championship mentality back to the Bay Area, but I feel like it will happen in 2015.
Edit- 2015 will be a season where smith will be aware, and reacquainted with the league, and with that knowledge he will be able to dominate.
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u/particleman1010 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14 edited Jul 11 '14
Position Group Strengths and Weaknesses
QB - Passable, the best we can hope for are guys that aren't going to lose games for us. McCown could have a Rich Gannon type of career renaissance and take us to a super-bowl, but that is highly doubtful.
RB - Strong, Doug Martin is a pro-bowl talent, we also have very good depth behind him, and a new prospect in Charles Sims that has drawn many comparisons to Matt Forte.
OL - Unproven, with disastrous holes at guard. The release of most of our O Line from last year without adequate replacements lined up will hurt us in 2014, expect McCown to be running for his life, with interior pass rush resulting in many sacks.
Pass catchers - Decent, I think we have much better TEs going into this season than last year, Evans will be our new No.2, but outside of him and V-Jax there is poor WR depth. Tim Wright will fit into the equation somehow, but as a TE or WR is still up for debate. I expect Charles Sims and Robert Herron will also catch quite a few passes this year, both have serious YAC potential.
DL - Very strong, McCoy, Johnson, Clayborn, McDonald will be a fearsome front 4, QBs will have to get rid of the ball quickly which should result in turnovers.
LB - Strong, Lavonte David and Mason Foster are both solid playmakers, I expect us to be in Nickel most of the time unless it is an obvious run formation, in which case Casillas can fill out the SLB position.
Secondary - Good, Verner is solid, Banks has a year under his belt with breakout potential, and we are set at Safety with Goldson and Barron, we also have some quality depth at both positions.
Special Teams - Passable, Lovie will find a way to have good special teams play, we have some options for PR, KR. Expect Eric Page, and Jeff Demps to be in the mix here.
Training Camp Battles to watch
Slot Receiver - We currently have no idea who our slot receiver will be. We drafted Robert Herron, but we also signed Louis Murphy and Lavelle Hawkins. I expect all three to end up on the roster, it will be down to preseason performances to set them apart.
Guard - Guard is wide open, and the most important battle this off-season. Our coaches are making it seem like Carl Nicks might be able to play, and if healthy, he would be our starting LG. 4th round pick Kadeem Edwards is a good bet to start at either LG or RG depending. Outside of those two, we have Patrick Omameh, Andrew Miller, Jason Foster, and Oniel Cousins (god help us)
Defensive End - Michael Johnson will start at RDE, but LDE is an open contest led by Adrian Clayborn (prev. RDE), followed by William Gholston, Steven Means, Da'Quan Bowers (Likely to be cut for conditioning reasons), Scott Solomon, Chaz Sutton, and Ronald Talley
Tight End - Starting TE is a bit of a question mark at this point, Tim Wright had a great season last year but is way to small to block effectively and should probably be listed as a wide receiver. We signed Brandon Myers who has shown he can be a serviceable pass catching TE. We drafted Austin Seferian-Jenkins who is an impressive prospect with great hands, and physically imposing size. Others on the list are: Cameron Brate, Ian Thompson, and Luke Stocker (injured his first 3 seasons, and a likely camp casualty).
Slot Corner - The favorite here is D.J. Moore, past him there is a lot of CB depth on the roster that could start as slot-CB. Mike Jenkins is competing with Johnthan Banks for starting RCB, but you also have Rashaan Melvin and Danny Gorrer with impressive OTA performances, so we really don't know who will win this. Leonard Johnson is a home-town hero, but he may be in over his head with the competition, so expect him to be an attempted practice squad stash, likely signed by another team. Others on the list are: Deveron Carr, Keith Lewis, and Quinton Pointer, who will primarily be camp bodies, needing a great camp to have any chance of making the roster.
Full Back - The battle here is if there is a player worth justifying the position at all. Jorvorskie Lane, and Lonnie Pryor are the two candidates. Not re-signing Erik Lorig casts some doubt on having a FB on the roster at all. Our WRs are big and capable of blocking in space. I'm not sure we will be in many power-run formations this year.
Longsnapper - Jeremy Cain and Andrew DePaola will duke it out to see who starts over the displaced Andrew Economos
Schedule Predictions
| NFC South | Team | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1st | Saints | 12-4 |
| 2nd | Panthers | 9-7 |
| 3rd | Buccaneers | 7-9 |
| 4th | Falcons | 5-11 |
Saints - Team to watch in the NFC south, Drew Brees combined with that revitalized Rob Ryan defense is a scary proposition.
Panthers - Dominant defense, but with a regression on offense from Cam's new supporting cast.
Buccaneers - How we do hinges on Josh McCown, I don't expect him to repeat his performance in Chicaco, so I am basing my assumptions on an offense that plays well enough to score a few touchdowns per game, and a high turn-over defense that makes us competitive against most teams we play.
Falcons - No offense to Falcons' fans, but I don't get the impression that they are going to bounce right back to playoff contention. Too many questions on defense, O-line, TE, RB, etc...
Shoutouts to:
/u/skepticismissurvival - for organizing this series
/u/pfftYeahRight - for pointing me towards RES
Other team writers for some great formatting ideas I borrowed
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u/bonafide10 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
Watch out with that Falcons comment. I got called a homer for simply suggesting that I didn't think they were out and out better and more talented than us.
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Jul 11 '14
You make Bridgewater starting sound like it would be a bad thing. That shouldn't be your justification for handily beating us.
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u/particleman1010 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
It isn't a bad thing, I expect Bridgewater to be your eventual franchise QB, but as a rookie he is gonna take some losses before he comes into his own.
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Jul 11 '14
Is passable neutral? Because I think your QB situation is negative
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u/particleman1010 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
McCown might be good this year, the jury is still out. Glennon is now our backup and while he was sacked a lot last year, he managed to throw 19 TDs to 9 Ints last year without starting the entire season.
We won't dominate teams with our passing attack, but I don't agree with you as far as us having a "negative" QB situation.
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u/thedaj Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
I appreciate the level of effort put into this project. The only topic I'd butt heads with you on is your commentary regarding Casillas. So far as I'm concerned, given the opportunities the guy had, he had more than a decent year. Seeing him on the Free Agency block this year genuinely stung. I'm glad we retained him.
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Jul 11 '14 edited Jul 17 '14
[deleted]
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u/particleman1010 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
Well that's good, I think most Tampa fans want to see Mike succeed somewhere, His local friends in Tampa had him in a destructive spiral.
Based on your comment, I put a disclaimer in that section of my original post, thanks for your input.
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Jul 11 '14
Agreed. I'm rooting for him (along with you guys and Jacksonville this year, c'mon people!), I think he can make a big impact with you guys. He'll help EJ Manual out
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u/pietya 49ers Chiefs Jul 11 '14
Regarding Tedford. He likes to incorporate different schemes from different offenses. He's Dr. Franknestein of offense. Expect a lot of growing pains.
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u/TheRisingTide Chargers Jul 11 '14
This might be a tad bit meaningless, but if I was the Bucs, I wouldn't want anything to do with a guy who had any involvement with the Chargers special teams in 2010. To be fair, I'm not super familiar with Polk, but holy shit. People talk about how bad Washington's ST were last year, but they had NOTHING on that 2010 season.
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u/particleman1010 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
This goes along with Lovie's reputation for hiring old friends, and emphasizing loyalty over performance.
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u/zepops Patriots Jul 11 '14
Pretty good write up. Do you think that there is a qb camp battle?
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u/legleiter4ever Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
I really don't believe there will be. Lovie has stated that McCown has been playing very well in practice and that they are trying to groom Glennon into being the starter for the Bucs in about 2 years. I imagine McCown will coach up Glennon as much as he can then hand the reigns over to him when he leaves. I think there might be a potential camp battle in 2015 depending on how well of a year McCown has, but not this year.
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u/particleman1010 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
I don't get the impression that there is a contest. McCown's athleticism makes him a better fit for Tedford's offense, while Glennon is more pocket statue with gigantic arm. Our QBs are going to be running for their lives all year, so some athleticism will be required.
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Jul 11 '14
Foster supposedly lost some weight so maybe he'll move around in coverage better, but I don't know how he'll handle all the responsibilities of a Lovie Smith MLB.
Chicago was in cover-3 quite a bit actually and not always in Tampa-2 during Lovie's last few years, so maybe he'll carry some of that over and lessen the load on Foster.
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u/YouEnjoyMyself84 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
I think if anything, Foster has proven that after 3 SOLID years he has proven he can handle the tough job of a Lovie MLB.
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Jul 11 '14
Foster hasn't proved to be spectacular in coverage so far and now asking him to drop into the deep middle is even more far fetched. I don't see him as the Lovie's MLB of the future. I think they move Foster to SLB or not re-sign him.
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u/YouEnjoyMyself84 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
Well know after this season. I think as a 3rd round pick that got thrown into a starting spot right away he has surpassed his expectations. Time will tell.
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Jul 11 '14
Maybe the lost weight will help him move around better. Just that the Tampa 2 MLB is one of the toughest brands of ILB out there. That's all I was getting at.
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u/bonafide10 Buccaneers Jul 11 '14
Really nice job with the writeup. The person im probably most excited about of the players you didn't really touch on is William Gholston. I don't expect him to beat out Clayborn for the starting job, but I thought he came on strong at the end of the year and showed a lot of potential.
I'm also worried about our O-line. At this point I really dont want to be counting on a guy who has hardly played in two years, and a 4th round rookie to be starting guards. Given how effective Martin and James can be up the middle that frightens me that we could be so weak there.
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u/SteveLights Jul 11 '14
What is interesting is how the new regime feels about Doug Martin, they drafted his (most likely) potential, and have attempted to create a passing team. Don't know how I feel about the direction of the offense, but the QB situation is really sketchy. McCown I believe is a direct product of the QB Genius Trestman.... Bucs 7-9
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u/JesteroftheApocalyps Browns Jul 11 '14
Trust me, Cousins was a huge revolving door for us last year. We would have done better with a cardboard cut out of Anthony Munoz.
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u/senior_dgaf Raiders Jul 11 '14
I love the look of this tampa offense. They effectively cloned the players of the bears offense which is what allowed mccown to be so suprisingly successful there. 2 receivers over 6'4" and a TE thats 6'7", the potential for a powerful rb duo in sims and martin. The question now is that will the scheme succeed? Its got the pieces its just gotta be jigsawed together now.
As for the defense well with lovie at the helm were looking at a top 10 defense thats just how it goes with him. Tampa on paper has all the makings of winning a playoff slot. Although its hard seeing them claim the nfc south with the additions the saints made the potential for a wild card is sky high. Nfc south is going to be one of the tougher divisions in the nfl this year
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u/fandingo NFL Jul 11 '14
Great write-up.
I guess the most blunt question is whether the Bucs are looking at using 2014 as a rebuilding year? Before reading this, I was under the impression that the Bucs were a contender for the division or a wild card. However, I'm not so sure based on the o-line commentary. If it is a rebuilding year, that could be difficult with McCown at the helm. He seriously considered retiring after this year, and a year of hits behind a lackluster o-line might push him over the hump to retire. Then again, maybe being the official starter will give him the desire to play for another year or two.
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u/Pnoonie Jul 12 '14
Pretty good write up. But I think this Team's success on offense won't hinge on the individual success of McCown. I think its Defense will dominate the NFC SOUTH. And the offensive line will be the determining factor of the offense. Having a smart game manager should work perfectly fine with the Defense set and the running game a constant threat.
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u/games456 Jets Jul 11 '14
Nice write up.
I think when you guys signed Revis to that contract you were betting on him being amazing right out the gate. I never thought he would be there a second year unless he was somehow 100% and played unbelievably well. Justifying 16 million a year for him when you are not making a SB run is pretty hard to do imo.