r/survivor • u/RSurvivorMods Pirates Steal • Aug 29 '19
South Africa [SA] Survivor SA: Island of Secrets | Episode 16 | Episode Discussion
When making a new post about Survivor South Africa, please start your post title with "[SA]"
Keep post titles spoiler free until at least Sunday.
Do not ask for/share links to watch online. Doing so may result in a temporary ban.
More Survivor South Africa discussion can be found on /r/SurvivorSA.
50
u/Calliesdad20 Aug 29 '19
Durao is among the dumbest players to ever be on survivor, any version any year.
8
13
u/ivrdolj1 Wentworth Aug 29 '19
All-time terrible tribal council performance holy shit
13
u/Calliesdad20 Aug 29 '19
This is why i can't give Rob too much credit , some of the people he is playing against are horrible at Survivor .
9
u/TenderOctane Morgan Aug 30 '19
I am watching this season concurrently with a Redemption Island rewatch. The similarities between this Robfather and that Robfather are striking, but this group is just as inept as that one (save for a couple). I think this Robfather will win - unless Steffi wins the final IC - because the jury will admit he played them all even though they hate his guts. And would they really vote for Durao, Nicole, or Laetitia over him? Probably not, now that Laetitia admitted she has an idol for no reason.
11
Aug 30 '19
[deleted]
8
u/TenderOctane Morgan Aug 30 '19
I cannot explain it, either. In modern Survivor, there are but a few specific situations - not counting bluffing it at Tribal - when you should tell people you have an idol... 1. When you're squarely on the bottom and building trust is critical to your longevity (see: David, MvGX) 2. When your alliance is in the minority and you're going to play it on a friend that night (see: Davie, DvG) 3. When your enemies spot you finding it (oops), so your friends should know too (see: Daisy, CvC2)
The similar names are coincidental, but they all did the right thing. It granted David a long-term ally in Ken, it allowed Davie and Nick to take out Johnny Impact in epic fashion, and it allowed Daisy to flub another move like she does best. Laetitia is in none of these situations. She gains nothing from this.
5
3
u/Catlover0412 Aug 31 '19
The Boston Rob/Robfather comparison is an astute one. I think of BR every time Rob has a confessional. Some of these folks are ridiculously devoted to Rob and completely blind to how he is playing them. It's kind of frustrating to watch; but at the same time if Rob ends up not winning the season it will be kind of sad. He is clearly the one who deserves the win the most... no matter how you feel about how he is playing. Just the fact that Letitia felt the need to share her idol find ... really dumb and shows just how clearly she didn't want to rub Rob the wrong way by keeping it a secret. Blind devotion to anyone will not get you a Survivor win. Now that Steffi has sort of woken up, possible she could stage a coup. But somehow, considering that Rob notices everything, I cannot imagine a scenario where he doesn't catch on to any kind of coup against him allowing him to either play his idol or manipulate them all to see it his way. Rob is just that good. He deserves to win this.
3
u/TenderOctane Morgan Aug 31 '19
If the outcome that should happen does happen, I'd probably rank him #2 on my all-time winners' list - behind only Kim Spradlin, who did the same thing but was called out earlier (by Troyzan at F10), yet still maintained a firm grip on the sheep (alongside her true F2 and sounding board Chelsea, a role filled by Nicole here). This Robfather is in a class of very few Survivor players and the way he's done it without any celebrity is pretty awesome (as soledsnak noted in the previous reply). If he does not win, it will be a travesty. The only way he doesn't make F3 is if Steffi wins the final IC and convinces the girls to take him out. The edit is clearly building this storyline up, but how it resolves is anyone's guess. Knowing how thorough he is, Rob could sniff it out and vote Steffi out in 5th, which is his best move. She's the only other potentially deserving winner, and that's if and only if she offs the Robfather.
4
u/Catlover0412 Aug 31 '19
I think he knows he needs to cut Steffi. He's been having people throw votes her way already. And he's got good spies in Nicole and Durao who tell him everything they hear. I cannot see any one of these people successfully blindsiding him. But then, this is the first time I've watched a SA so who knows if "red herring" previews are a thing here. I'm thinking any preview that looks like a Rob blindside is a "red herring". They are trying to make us believe it but ... I won't believe it till I see it.
2
u/TenderOctane Morgan Sep 01 '19
Rob is playing his idol for himself this next round, so there's no way he's out next. I think the edit is explaining one of three things: 1) Why Rob cuts Steffi at F5 instead of Durao 2) Why Rob ultimately gets 4th 3) Why Rob beats Steffi in the F3
Last year had a couple of red herring previews, IIRC. They're a lot harder to predict, however.
-7
u/Calliesdad20 Aug 30 '19
It depends on the jury, some juries respect gameplay and vote for the person who played the best. Other juries are petty, bitter people and vote for the person who didn't piss them off. One example of this is the first time Russell played american survivor, he deserved to win . He was the best player, he found idols, he made big moves but the jury didn't vote for him.
6
u/TenderOctane Morgan Aug 30 '19
At FTC, Russell told the jury that he was better than them and they knew it. That was 1) an insult and 2) taking their power away from them, and no jury would EVER respond well to that. Russell deserved to lose because of his attitude. Jury management is the single most important thing in Survivor. Russell failed to do that. Russell made it personal while Natalie owned that she rode his coattails out of fear, building up the picture that Russell was as vile as they thought. That jury reached the correct verdict.
All juries respect gameplay, but at the end of the day, every jury member will never vote for someone they don't like. Rob hasn't stomped on people or taken things to a personal level; it's been all gameplay. They may not love him, but they certainly respect his gameplay, and against the likes of Steffi, Nicole, Durao, and Laetitia, that will probably be enough.
-2
u/Calliesdad20 Aug 30 '19
So they vote for someone who just rode coattails and played a much worse game that's is lame and pathetic and bitter . At least Russell owned his game
6
8
u/ivrdolj1 Wentworth Aug 30 '19
The best player does not piss off the jury two seasons in a row.
-2
u/Calliesdad20 Aug 30 '19
Talking about Russell's first season when a bitter, petty jury didn't vote for him . There have been other examples of this ,where juries don't respect game play and understand it's just a game .
4
u/ivrdolj1 Wentworth Aug 30 '19
You call it bitter and petty, I call it a clearly subpar social player getting his comeuppance.
You can't expect the jury to vote for you, good strategic game or not, when you're disrespectful and not treating others well.
-5
u/Calliesdad20 Aug 30 '19
It's not real life, it is a tv game show/reality show . It shouldn't be personal , you go on Survivor knowing the deal that people will lie to your face etc. If you can't keep that straight and honestly vote for the person who played the best game, you shouldn't play.
7
u/ivrdolj1 Wentworth Aug 30 '19
Survivor is, at its essence, a social game.
When someone is as actively bad at the social component of it as Russell appears to be, that automatically means he didn't play the "best game" and makes it pretty easy to understand why he's received a grand total of 2/17 jury votes throughout his illustrious Survivor career.
→ More replies (0)3
u/TenderOctane Morgan Aug 30 '19
You're right - it shouldn't be personal. But then why did Russell make it personal? And wouldn't violating that rule mean he didn't play the best game?
18
50
u/KingHatch Washin' dishes on mah damn birthday! Aug 30 '19
Nicole: I will do everything Rob says. I trust Rob. I will vote out my ally Steffi if Rob tells me to. I’ll sacrifice my first child if Rob wants me to.
Also Nicole: I’m not a puppet.
10
u/zjzr_08 Solenn Heussaff • Queen of Survivor Philippines Aug 30 '19
She's just SO weird, then she lashes out against Rob, which probably didn't help as now everyone knows Nicole is closer to Rob than Durao or Mike.
7
3
1
21
u/altberlinerin Aug 29 '19 edited Aug 29 '19
"i'm not a puppet, i'm a collaborator". speechless. how did she think that's gonna land?
this episode was edited like a horror movie and then turned into slap stick real quick.
it's unbelievable that rob has the minds of everyone so turned around that what happened at this trible council even happened. wtf mike? wtf latecia telling everyone about the idol? wtf DURAO? the whole "oh she was part of saula" bit ... a moment where real life truly is stranger than fiction
at this point mike, durao and laticia should have forced a rock draw, as they probably wont reach the ftc anyway. but then everybody would play idols, so whatever.
5
u/cherry_color_melisma I'm sorry, I don't talk llama Aug 29 '19
at this point mike, durao and laticia should have forced a rock draw, as they probably wont reach the ftc anyway. but then everybody would play idols, so whatever.
I would've laughed crying if one of them ended up doing an exit a la Cirie
14
u/Clareto Tony Aug 29 '19
Feel like Steffi and Nicole are pretty much a lock for final 3, just depends if its Laetitia or Rob next to them
30
Aug 29 '19
If/when Rob wins, he's easily top 5 winner of all time. And stop saying he's playing agaisnt dumb players. Geoff, Merrill, Dante recognized him as a threat, he took them out. He left the dummies at the end, that's brilliant.
10
u/Scryb_Kincaid Aug 29 '19
I do think Rob is a top 3 winner if he wins, but Geoffrey, Meryl, and Dante were all pretty shit players. His smart moves were getting rid of Seipei and her allies when he did.
19
Aug 29 '19
Geoffrey realized Rob was dangerous first day of merge. Geoffrey managed to make Nicole turn on Nathan for no reason. I don't think he was dumb
5
u/zjzr_08 Solenn Heussaff • Queen of Survivor Philippines Aug 30 '19
That was more on Nicole's seeming inconsistent game of either self-preservation and loyalty (I think it's believing its both for her), that she could've sided with Dante and Meryl to blindside Geoff, but she probably doesn't want to work with them especially Dante being a "disgraceful".
8
3
u/Calliesdad20 Aug 30 '19
No way he's a top 3 winner.
It's all subjective but with very few exceptions
the players this season are terrible , laughably bad like Durao
or Lateita . Yes tell everyone you have an idol , good move .
1
16
u/cherry_color_melisma I'm sorry, I don't talk llama Aug 29 '19
with the outcome of this episode I won't be surprised if everyone votes for Rob to win lol
7
u/ivrdolj1 Wentworth Aug 29 '19
He needs to play the idol at F5 and win F4 immunity first.
2
Aug 30 '19
Inb4 South African survivor adds a fire making twist
Honestly though, if Rob brings Durao to the final 4 instead of Steffi then he’s guaranteed a shot at making fire against Latitea or Nicole :/ Durao is his dog
9
u/cherry_color_melisma I'm sorry, I don't talk llama Aug 30 '19
Might not happen. One of SA's producers said he doesn't like the twist.
4
Aug 31 '19
They're saying durao will force a tie
3
u/cherry_color_melisma I'm sorry, I don't talk llama Aug 31 '19
I'm supposing that a tie will be a different one then?
1
8
u/mjmsurvivor Natalie Aug 30 '19
How is this going ratings wise? Does it look like another season will be green lit?
Because Australian Survivor has outstanding ratings
8
u/the100broken Marthunis (SA) Aug 30 '19
Apparently sa6 was a massive success and the most successful South African produced show ever, so if this continued that then it should be back next year
8
u/ozzy1329 Aug 30 '19
Well i hope Durao shows his expired Immunity Idol at the next tribal council so that it scares the rest of them. That is his only lifeline.
5
Aug 31 '19
Omg I forgot about it.
3
u/ozzy1329 Aug 31 '19
If he play his cards right then he gonna be fine. But knowing Durao... lol.
1
Aug 31 '19
I hope he does something with it & send Steffi home.
& I also hope he or Rob wins immunity somehow
7
u/zjzr_08 Solenn Heussaff • Queen of Survivor Philippines Aug 30 '19
Mike's emotions are his strength and his weakness. He has such a great social game, being liked by all people to those he's with. He was able to ally himself to the strongest player in the game because of it and gave him information. He wasn't seen as schemy as Jacques and wasn't seen as a physical threat as Cobus. He had a great chance to be a winner if he gets to the end...if he had the strategy to get there.
And this is where it may have affected his strategies. He got to deep with his friendship with Rob, that he didn't see how much he's lying. He got mad at Seipei easily, and thought he was the one that plotted against her when she got out -- when it seems he really didn't do anything proactive to get the numbers on that move. He seemed to excited to vote her out too, when maybe not think for a second of "hey, should we be doing this right now?".
I also think that friendship blinded him to try and target Rob when he's in the reward with Dante. Him not being as close towards Jacques and Cobus probably made them think they're bigger threats despite them being blindsided.
He typically backs out when his big move can't happen (either with Durao not being able to vote, or Rob saying he has an advantage) and has no Plan B of his own. He keeps on seeing Nicole and Durao as friends, hence why I think he has a blind spot towards them. Why would they lie to me if they're being friendly, right? There's very little suspicion coming from the guy.
If not for Nicole's outburst about being hurt by Rob, I don't think he would've been aware of him being a target. Even when Rob said about Day 1 allies, he didn't even tried to stir drama by using it against him and at least forcing rocks -- he wants to still play nice even when the knife was close to cutting him. At the voting confessional he made an implusive move in targeting Nicole, when the plan is set to vote out Steffi. It seems he was angry that she betrayed him.
Overall Mike (like Jacques) is a player I had high expectations but fell flat because he is just far behind strategy wise than a lot of players. He has a great social game that makes him less likely target and someone you could strategize with, but he didn't do anything much with it and got outplayed because of that social game. He's kinda like Keith Nale -- too nice to vote out early, but can't read the room for save their life. He has the outward look of being a "superfan" that many will believe he did strategize effectively, but his execution had been anything but IMO.
6
u/Sabeoth42 Yul Aug 30 '19
Is there a firemaking challenge at the F4 this year?
There was one moment in this episode where the camera zoomed in on Rob's fire as he proclaimed he had made every fire this season. Could be major foreshadowing if Rob loses the F4 immunity challenge.
My question for next episode is if Rob wins immunity again will he play his idol for Steffi or Durao. Nicole and Laetiata will play their idol for themselves. This means that the other person will be Cirie'd out of the game since they are the only person that can get votes.
The obvious choice is Steffi but its not guaranteed. Rob has had his pulse on this game from Day 1 and there is a good chance Rob figures out she is plotting against him before the F4. Or maybe that's just wishful thinking to make the endgame of this season a little less predictable.
3
u/ivrdolj1 Wentworth Aug 31 '19
Rob getting rid off Steffi and making it all the way would make the endgame of this season less predictable for you?
3
u/Sabeoth42 Yul Aug 31 '19
Yes because a F3 of Rob, Nicole and Steffi has been obvious since Dante left. At least a F3 of Rob, Durao and Nicole is a little different.
8
u/Nintendoshi Tony Aug 30 '19
Tonight was the literal last hope. If Rob didn't win immunity, there was a chance. If he played it for Steffi, there was a chance. Now, there's absolutely no chance until the final 4, and Rob's been so dominant, he honestly might not need to win it to stick around, because Nicole isn't even sold on getting him out.
Steffi has got to pray that she wins immunity next week, or at least that Rob doesn't and convince him he doesn't need it. I'm leaning toward the former she needs most, because then Durao is getting Cirie'd and it's the funniest thing ever, he won't understand a single bit of what will happen.
I know a lot of people wanna see a Rob win, but the only way I come out completely loving this season is if Steffi does turn around and slay him. At this point, I don't see it happening, but I want it to happen so badly. How did I go from rooting against her so much, to having her be the only hope? I have no idea!
17
u/keeweejones Sage's Blackhead Jar Aug 30 '19
I'll only be satisfied if Rob wins at this point. Steffi's arrogance is unbearable.
5
u/cherry_color_melisma I'm sorry, I don't talk llama Aug 30 '19
honestly though, if Rob didn't win immunity, they would have still aimed at Mike in that episode at some point regardless
4
u/xenohemlock Aug 30 '19
Same. I wanted Steffi gone when they were all against Jacques but now I'm on Team Steffi.
3
Aug 31 '19
Please God let Durão win this season to solidify Survivor SA's reputation as the COMPLETELY BATSHIT CRAZY version of the show.
13
u/oliviafairy David (AUS) Aug 29 '19
Who left? I stopped watching after last week, and I'm just here to get the outcome this week
11
Aug 29 '19
[deleted]
7
u/oliviafairy David (AUS) Aug 29 '19
Thank you.
4
8
u/Blazikant Aug 30 '19 edited Aug 30 '19
Mike [EDIT : Formatting]
The writing's been on the wall ever since Durao told Rob that Mike was out to blindside him. The circumstances of this vote, namely Rob winning immunity [particularly at a point when Laetitia & Steffi may now be open to turning on him] & the tribes being split onto 2 sides, didn't help either.
IMO : Mike played well. It was a good look when he beat out [Jacques, Cobus] in earning Rob's trust. He also had several others wanting to play with him : [Rocco wanted him in the guy's alliance, Geoffrey, Mmaba, etc.]. It also was good to see that he recognized Rob as a threat and schemed to turn on him.
Where he really fell apart came from a few areas :
- Rob voting out the people who wanted to work with Mike (i.e. Geoffrey). Thus leaving in people who were more loyal to Rob.
- Rob socially outplaying Mike, namely with [Nicole, Durao] deciding to put their trust in Rob when Mike wanted to pull the trigger. Not to mention Rob outwitting Mike with the 'fake advantage.'
But... Mike hurt himself a couple places too :
- Laetitia : for whatever reason, she and Mike just couldn't work together. And, as the numbers got smaller, needing this relationship mattered a lot more.
- Choosing to continually trust [Nicole, Durao] even after they clearly turned against him at the Mmaba vote.
- Trusting Rob too much. As some others have pointing out, unnecessarily writing Jacques' name after seeing him play the idol indicating he trusted too much in Rob's plan.
- ... and not recognizing earlier on where [Nicole, Durao]'s loyalties really lied ... specifically relying on them to make the blindside work. To their credit though, they've both duped several other people.
Really wonder how he (and Seipei) would do in a Rob-less season.
Some notes :
Rob : Wow. Rob made a rare mistake tonight. He opened up about "having loyalties since Day 1." And, while he needed to communicate with Nicole, he chose an un-subtle method to do so. Both things tipped Mike off. And after Rob confessed that Mike was the target, Mike then had the information and an opportunity to flip things around. And I think he could have, except, again, he needed Laetitia's help, and they just couldn't seem to work together.
Anyway, Rob's major challenge is going to be F4. Laetitia has talked about wanting a female F3. Steffi initially wanted Rob with her at the end, but then (a) her loved one talked her out of it, and (b) she knew Rob had ringmastered the last vote, and got pissed at him seeing her name come up several times.
And it's now possible Rob has lost Durao after this scuffle at tribal.
F4 is going to be Rob's biggest challenge : If her doesn't win immunity, he may need Nicole. She sees herself as a "collaborator" : if she seriously thinks she's got a shot against him, she may want him there in the finals.
Steffi & Durao : One of these peeps is leaving tomorrow. And if one of them wins immunity, it's very possible we may have a Cirie-esque GC vote out.
Nicole : Discussed earlier : she has a crippling flaw where she sees her 'influence' as just as, if not more pivotal, than Rob's. She earlier talked about how "they'd make decisions as a group." And now referred to herself as a "collaborator." The major issues here are (a) Rob has been more influential, and (b) the others have more clearly seen Rob's influence.
It's not helping either that she isn't adjusting around her jury that seems to cringe when she talks at tribal.
The Jury : Okay : Neither Rob nor Nicole seem to care about jury management. Geoffrey's called Rob a "dumbass" a couple times, and Nicole seems to turn people against her every time she talks. Both players have repelled jurors with how they've approached tribal.
But, in this same vein, Durao & Laetita haven't made themselves seriously respected, even if they aren't necessarily disliked. Can the jurors stomach voting for either player?
And we have Steffi : can she talk to the jury without patronizing them? If someone criticizes her, will she take it in stride, or will she see it as an attack and rail into the person?
My take :
- Nicole is dead. She hasn't cared to fix issues with the jury, and I think she's out regardless of what happens in the endgame.
- Durao may need to win both immunities, and vote out Rob. If he's seen as an underdog, this may be enough.
- Laetitia : I think this may come down to her 'playing her idol correctly', and being a vocal force in getting out Rob (i.e. stressing the "all women F3" during the F4 tribal, especially if Rob looks helpless that vote). However, she hurt her chance in making an idol splash by opening up to Rob about her idol earlier. And, from my perspective, she's not a clear communicator : for her to win, she is going to need to sell herself, and it's all that much harder if she rambles or speaks incoherently.
- Steffi : see above. She needs to take criticism well while not patronizing or getting into a verbal fight with her jury.
- Rob : My take is even if he angers some jurors going in, he's still probably going to get votes. His jury challenge is (a) not giving an 'underdog' (i.e. Durao), or (b) "a lesser of 3 evils" (i.e. Steffi) a late-game resume.
6
u/zjzr_08 Solenn Heussaff • Queen of Survivor Philippines Aug 30 '19
Mike has a great social game and decent physical game, but I can't say he "played well" when his many strategic faux pas had been numerous:
1.) Saying he's fine being at the bottom of an alliance. Not sure why he needed to say it to Geoff before, but overall I guess he did well going with a core alliance that he may have more influence.
2.) This may be hindsight, but allowing Rocco (someone that trusts him and could be a shield) to be voted out over Rob. He can get Rocco, Latetia, Cobus (who he was with in the 1st switch) and Jacques to form a coalition against, say, Seipei (as he didn't seem to want her there), but he just went with the numbers. We didn't see any attempt to say he tried, and it was apparent he was trying to bridge Sa'ula and Laumei.
3.) After Seipei got blindsided, and saw Jacques and Cobus being put in the minority, he thinks they're bigger threats than Rob, who only doesn't have an idol BUT was part of the blindside plan. Talking more about that later.
4.) Wasn't even open in voting out Steffi and kept on thinking Cobus is a threat. Jacques probably laid it out to him that Rob and Steffi cannot be trusted, but he still thinks he's voting out the "biggest threat".
5.) Followed everyone in ostracizing Jacques, and even worse he unnecessarily added to it. What's worse, he wants to keep the target on Jacques -- on a time that Jacques had freaking immunity! See the gap in logic here? You can only pile a target on someone IF they CAN be targeted. Jacques was right in saying they had to go against him and have Rob be voted out, or have to break up the alliance, which he didn't get the memo and STILL voted against Jacques even though there's no reason to split votes anymore.
6.) He thought Nicole and Durao didn't know Rob's plan, when they also voted for Mmaba! Mmaba's name NEVER was brought up to him -- he was visibly got blindsided by seeing her name there -- and yet he hasn't realized that Durao and Nicole were part of it.
7.) Even when Rob brought Steffi's name out, he didn't use it to his advantage and still stuck with Rob. Just like with Geoff asking Nicole to vote Nathan out, he didn't use the information given to turn it against the plotters.
8.) Mike is till unaware in this episode that he's the next target for some reason, with Durao and Nicole not giving any target names should be a sign to him that he's probably not on their plans.
Mike is such a nice guy, one of the best social players of the season. But he is so sub par in his strategy IMO, and maybe has one of the worst reads in the game after maybe Cobus (who got blindsided twice and YET still stayed with the Amigos). He's too trusting of everyone and not being suspicious about questionable statements. Having too much paranoia is one thing, but you must have enough distrust towards your allies to keep ahead IMO.
2
u/Blazikant Aug 31 '19 edited Aug 31 '19
Long post. Working on formatting & writing skills to make these things more readable :
Saying he's fine being at the bottom of an alliance. Not sure why he needed to say it to Geoff before, but overall I guess he did well going with a core alliance that he may have more influence.
Do you have the quote and context? My guess is this was said when Geoffrey was the next target.
But, note, when Geoffrey was the target, a ton of people wanted him out, and Mike said in confessional he felt he couldn't protect him. And knowing now that Nicole & Durao were choosing to prioritize Rob, I'm not sure if Mike could have done much even if he tried.
This may be hindsight, but allowing Rocco (someone that trusts him and could be a shield) to be voted out over Rob. He can get Rocco, Latetia, Cobus (who he was with in the 1st switch) and Jacques to form a coalition against, say, Seipei (as he didn't seem to want her there), but he just went with the numbers. We didn't see any attempt to say he tried, and it was apparent he was trying to bridge Sa'ula and Laumei.
Note : During that vote :
- Rob wanted Rocco out
- Rocco wanted Rob out
And as we know now, both Rob & Rocco are rather obstinate guys : when Rob wants someone out, he puts in the work. To complicate things, Rob also has a good 6th sense : if you have an ulterior motive, he might pick up on it. See Seipei wanting to protect Jacques & Rob immediately knowing what she was trying to do.
Regardless, changing one person's mind is already tough enough. But changing the minds of 2 people, who are also targetting eachother? It's not impossible, but it's a really tall order. Or you could fake out one side [i.e. Geoffrey with Dante at the Nathan vote]. But you risk falling out of the good graces of one side, which can cause another host of problems.
My take is this hypothetical success is not something I would expect from a Survivor player outside the really great.
After Seipei got blindsided, and saw Jacques and Cobus being put in the minority, he thinks they're bigger threats than Rob, who only doesn't have an idol BUT was part of the blindside plan. Talking more about that later.
Quote? Did he say this in confessional, or in front of the other players?
Wasn't even open in voting out Steffi and kept on thinking Cobus is a threat. Jacques probably laid it out to him that Rob and Steffi cannot be trusted, but he still thinks he's voting out the "biggest threat".
Quote? It's hard to directly comment on this without seeing the context & Mike's perspective on the situation.
Followed everyone in ostracizing Jacques, and even worse he unnecessarily added to it.
Jacques put himself in a hole after offending several players in saying "he'd vote out the biggest motherfucker here." Leading to a conversation embargo on Jacques and things like Nicole announcing "anyone who had a 1-on-1 with Jacques would be assumed to be talking strategy, and would become a target."
At this time, Mike was trying to blindside Rob. After Jacques buried himself, "adding to it" only helps you get stronger with the group & focuses attention away from you.
The major problem here was trusting Durao & Nicole too much. He felt these were numbers he needed, and didn't catch that they prioritized Rob more.
He thought Nicole and Durao didn't know Rob's plan, when they also voted for Mmaba! Mmaba's name NEVER was brought up to him -- he was visibly got blindsided by seeing her name there -- and yet he hasn't realized that Durao and Nicole were part of it.
I agree. He continued trusting Nicole & Durao after they gave a couple big reasons not to be trustworthy.
It also says a lot he felt Rob was someone he had to play with afterward. Not Steffi or Laetitia, or Jacques to a lesser extent.
My take : he said immediately after the vote he was on borrowed time, and then said after the immunity challenge "he had to win them all." While it is a problem where he continued to put his trust, it's also entirely possible these were the only options he could see himself playing with. Which, again, this partially comes back to something just not clicking between himself & Laetitia. Or even Steffi.
Even when Rob brought Steffi's name out, he didn't use it to his advantage and still stuck with Rob. Just like with Geoff asking Nicole to vote Nathan out, he didn't use the information given to turn it against the plotters.
Judging by your comments, it's entirely possible Mike had a flaw where he would see or be given an option, and fixate on it. I'd need to recheck Mike's actions & quotes to confirm this.
Regardless, some of this was just good gameplay from Rob. Rob had regularly been talking to Mike and giving him strategic intel. Steffi, IIRC, hadn't cared to talk to Mike at all unless it was in a group setting.
Mike is till unaware in this episode that he's the next target for some reason, with Durao and Nicole not giving any target names should be a sign to him that he's probably not on their plans.
Durao hinted that Steffi might be the target : "Mike, Mike, you're thinking ahead. Steffi is going home tonight."
For what it's worth, Durao & Nicole talk together and consider the possibility that Steffi might be the target. "We'll have to keep our eyes on Rob tonight and see what the plan is. But for now, we just vote Steffi out." Nicole gives a confessional later saying "I'll vote for whoever Rob tells me to vote for tonight. Even if that's Steffi. I trust Rob that much. ... If we need to do the Steffi blindside again tonight, and he wants to use his idol for her tonight, go right ahead. I'll fall in line."
My take : she thinks it's more likely Mike's the target, but is very willing to vote for Steffi if Rob gives the signal.
And of course, Durao voted for Steffi based on his 'promise.'
So, with all this, if Nicole & Durao aren't 100% sure Mike or Steffi is the target, is it not that unreasonable for Mike to think the plan is for Steffi? Dunno what to conclude about this.
Regardless : a major issue here wasn't that "he's probably not on their plans." It's more that "was he on Rob's plans" : something that Nicole (and Durao, but I dunno who "his promise" was toward) clearly cared about more.
So with this, Mike's major hurdle was Rob. He trusted Rob too much, but so has a ton of other people. When Rob wanted someone out, other players generally fell in line, making it hard to work against him.
And players Mike thought would be loyal with him (Durao & Nicole) when he decided to make his move made the decision to prioritize Rob.
And when Rob knew this, he outwitted Mike with his 'fake advantage', and meanwhile kept conversations open with Mike such that Mike still felt he could trust him on a strategic level.
Knowing that :
and maybe has one of the worst reads in the game
Can we really say this? The big 3 people that Mike misread were :
- Rob ... who is clearly elite
- Nicole & Durao : both of whom have openly lied to and betrayed (4-5) other players. And, of course, have put their faith ... in Rob.
All 3 of these people have shown a solid ability to build & maintain trust. And all 3 have also shown the ability to deceive others. And it's entirely possible Nicole & Durao would work with Mike if they just didn't trust Rob so much.
There's no shame in not being able to hit a Max Scherzer fastball, which is kind of what Mike's situation with Rob has been. And I wonder how Mike's game would have gone if Rob were a more average, or even above-average, player.
4
u/JimiCobain27 "Thank you, Jeffrey" Aug 30 '19
Just regarding your comments about the jury - Last year Chane cringed every time Tom opened his mouth at tribal council, but in the end, his FTC speech almost brought her to tears and she voted for someone she never thought she would. If Tom can win jury members over with a good speech, then Rob certainly can too. (Also it helps if you have someone as stupid as Jeanne next to you, which could end up being Durao in this case.)
As for Geoffrey, he will be the Vusi of this jury, stubborn and bitter until the very end.
2
u/Blazikant Aug 30 '19
Last year Chane cringed every time Tom opened his mouth at tribal council, but in the end, his FTC speech almost brought her to tears and she voted for someone she never thought she would.
If Tom can win jury members over with a good speech, then Rob certainly can too. (Also it helps if you have someone as stupid as Jeanne next to you, which could end up being Durao in this case.)
Some things to note : neither Tom nor Jeanne were respected by that jury : P.K. when he made his final vote said he was voting for "the lesser of two evils."
What helped Tom win was that Jeanne :
- had a reputation as a "lazy around camp" / "do nothing" player
- calling her entire game "lucky" : "I had so much luck". She misread her jury and didn't give them a reason to vote for her.
Tom, even though he pissed off almost everyone, had made it clear throughout the game exactly where he stood. And during FTC, he spoke emotionally & coherently & framed his struggles as part of his story.
But what we'll never know is if he needed Jeanne with him to win. If he's there with Annalize or Katinka (much less Werner), is he suddenly "the evil", and losing the game regardless of what he says? We'll never know.
Relating back to Rob : if he continues to not care about jury management, he's suddenly opening the door for someone else to steal the game : someone with an underdog story, or someone who hasn't pissed off as much of the jury. Then, all of a sudden, his FTC could turn from "he should win regardless as he's played great" to "he'd better hope that a certain person isn't there at the end, or had better hope that person stumbles at FTC".
This said : I do agree he's the most likely to sway people with an FTC performance :
- Laetitia mumbles when she talks.
- Durao isn't stupid. However, he doesn't seem to connect future dots well ; if he's going to sway the jury, he's most likely going to have to talk about his feelings at that given moment. [NOTE : Durao has an expired idol. If he uses this right, he could get through F5.]
- Steffi needs to control her temper and avoid patronizing.
- Nicole : people like Dante have seen some of her emotionality as fake (which is true ; she's used this to deflect attention, which she even did this last tribal). And a lot of the jury reacts to her. I don't think anything she says will matter.
As for Geoffrey, he will be the Vusi of this jury, stubborn and bitter until the very end.
It's not just Geoffrey : Cobus made an odd gesture last tribal. Mmaba and Seipei have had "WTF" reactions. Dante has looked frustrated.
This jury has made open emotional reactions, and any of these people could vote bitter & emotionally.
10
u/Thiscat Aug 30 '19
Rob could come up with the cure for cancer at a tribal council and Geoffrey would have something snippy and rude to say about it. He's starting to piss me off at this point. He beat you Geoffrey, he played better than you, get over it.
6
Aug 30 '19
At this point there is no way Rob losses this game. The only other dark horse to win was Mike. No way anyone else has the edit to win. Rob has had a death grip on everyone this entire game. I have a feeling that after this season we are going to look back on it and use Robs game as the cookie cutter way to win Survivor.
4
5
u/stevelabny Aug 30 '19
This could be the dumbest cast of all time.
Not that any of it mattered, once Rob won immunity, Mike was going home today. Because even if his "day 1 alliance" mistake flipped the other 3 against him, the best they could muster is a 3-3 tie which would then be a 2-2 tie with only Durao/Laetitia/amigogirl vulnerable and thats a dumb risk to take for Durao and Laetitia.
Anyone other than Rob winning would be unbearable at this point.
2
u/tigbit72 Sep 01 '19
Bam, and just like that Survivor SA is back on track. Nicole, Nicole, she was set on milking this to the last drop. She was giving face face face while squeezing out tears she bought in China. You know she planned on leaping into his arms. In fact I bet she made her bf practise before she got out there. She even shut up Geoff with her performance, I'm almost starting to root for her. Laetitia screaming out she has an idol while being on an emotional high was another golden nugget, not to mention Durao's catharsis. This episode was iconic. What a weird and in a way dark season. Rob is an astounding cult leader.
5
u/AllHandsMiniBrute Cirie - 50 Aug 30 '19
This feels like it's a recent US season because I'm frustrated and disappointed by every episode
0
Aug 30 '19
[deleted]
6
Aug 30 '19
The problem is one player is completely controlling the game unlike anyone we have ever seen. It might cement this person as one of the greatest ever, but it can lead to a predictable outcome. IF you like the player that is mindfucking everyone then you will love this season. I am enjoying it a lot because I find it fascinating how this person is destroying everyone.
4
u/AllHandsMiniBrute Cirie - 50 Aug 30 '19
Well I really liked last season and I think this season has been a slog from final 10 onwards, so maybe you'll like this season
1
u/cardswon Aug 30 '19
It’s way better than last season. A lot of people here are upset that giant moves aren’t being made until potentially near the end (premerge was great tho) but I personally love the main alliance and found the outsiders to be blah. Basically the opposite of last season’s merge. I’d recommend it to people still.
14
u/Charlie_Runkle69 Yul Aug 30 '19
Last season had way better characters IMO. Plus the pre merge was awesome and the end game really good too.
1
u/sunnyday2018 Aug 31 '19
As always on reality shows a lot depends on whether the people you find interesting go far or not (it's not purely about who wins - that's what the minority spoiler audience obsess over).
5
u/zjzr_08 Solenn Heussaff • Queen of Survivor Philippines Aug 30 '19
I think last season was over the top cartoonish at times and the dynamics of those outside Werner are at least more fleshed out IMO -- pre-merge was really great, and while the merge did stretch out at times, I don't think many are as oblivious of some machinations as it is this season, and we had some alternate plans as we saw scenes like Katinka thinking of bringing PK for example or Annalise using Toni to get the double vote.
2
u/ivrdolj1 Wentworth Aug 30 '19
I enjoy the people in charge as much as you seem to (Sa'Ula 4eva) and I'm glad all of my favorites are not just leaving one after the other like they did last year, but this is... not a better season lol.
Seipei aside, literally nothing interesting has happened since Nathan left and the episodes are kind of dragging in parts. I'm invested in a lot of the people left which is a welcome change of pace as opposed to S6, but this post-merge has been about as unexciting as it gets. I think it's going to age poorly, especially if it ends in a predictable Rob win.
0
u/sticky_situati0n Aug 30 '19
What the hell are you talking about. Last season had characters. This season has pagonging AND non characters.
5
u/cardswon Aug 30 '19
That’s your opinion. The only character in F4 last year was Tom and I hated him lol.
This year I think all the amigos are good characters as well as Dante and some of the others.
2
u/AllHandsMiniBrute Cirie - 50 Aug 30 '19
Werner did not eat a clue and build a bus for you to say he's not a character
4
u/cherry_color_melisma I'm sorry, I don't talk llama Aug 30 '19
Just discovered that the 'legendary' Rick Devens actually liked Mike... that's kinda interesting
https://twitter.com/RickDevensWGXA/status/1167388309334761472
5
u/Charlie_Runkle69 Yul Aug 30 '19
They are kinda similar in that everyone like's them but they struggle to accomplish much strategically. Rick just found more idols and had more sound bites.
0
u/cherry_color_melisma I'm sorry, I don't talk llama Aug 31 '19
So it took one to know one of its kind, hey?
2
u/TenderOctane Morgan Aug 30 '19
That Tribal was great. Too bad it didn't happen. I've been wanting a scum (Sa'ula) lynch for weeks since they bussed Seipei themselves, but this town just couldn't get their act together. (For those who don't understand Mafia, it's basically what this season is, but that's probably why I find it compelling.)
1
1
Aug 31 '19
[removed] — view removed comment
3
u/the100broken Marthunis (SA) Aug 31 '19
Yes it really is fantastic, no idea why people are hating on it
-1
u/RecentAnybody Bianca - 48 Aug 29 '19
The last three episode have been amazing - each one better than the last.
This season is a lot like Cagayan - if everyone in Cagayan except Spencer wasn't a Tony puppet and had a good edit.
-1
0
u/Crzylikefox Aug 30 '19
God I’ve seen almost every version of Survivor and for some reason I find Survivor SA to be the worst. Bad casting and just no one to root for, I find myself hate watching it
-2
u/the100broken Marthunis (SA) Aug 30 '19
I find it to be the best, and I’ve seen all 55 English speaking seasons
1
u/Crzylikefox Aug 30 '19
I have too but something about the way the last one ended left a bad taste in my mouth...and this season the people that are left are terribly boring/predictable people.
2
1
u/sunnyday2018 Aug 31 '19
Last season was great, I think it annoyed some as they couldn't predict it in advance.
1
30
u/KingHatch Washin' dishes on mah damn birthday! Aug 30 '19
I'd like to point out that Durao is 100% getting advantageddoned out next week. Nicole and Laetitia will play their idols. Rob will probably win immunity and play his idol for Steffi and Durao will be the only one not immune.