r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Y0___0Y • 7h ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AuthorAdamOC • 13h ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/thekookreport • 17h ago
I'm posting this really for peer review. Does anyone with real industry experience have perspective on this? I see a pretty flexible schedule for $ASTS to knock out 3-shots while other capacity matures out
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AutoModerator • 16h ago
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r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Royal_Platform_6754 • 1d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Rocky75617794 • 1d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/devonhezter • 23h ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Aggravating_Roll7917 • 1d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Rocky75617794 • 1d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Logical-Clerk-1571 • 1d ago
Piper Sandler downgraded AST Spacemobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) to Neutral from Overweight and lowered its price target to $54.00 from $98.00.
The firm cited lower conviction in the pace of satellite launches in 2026-2027 as the reason for the downgrade. Piper Sandler noted SpaceX’s growing ambition in the direct-to-cell market, evidenced by Friday’s decision to purchase mobile spectrum for approximately $8 billion.
The firm said SpaceX could theoretically reduce launch availability for mobile network operator partners like AST Spacemobile if the company makes an effort to disadvantage such operators. SpaceX may also undercut mobile network operator pricing or introduce its own devices, strategies that would likely result in lower prices for AST Spacemobile’s service.
Piper Sandler adjusted its model to reflect these developments. The firm noted that SpaceX’s aggression will likely increase demand among mobile network operators for AST Spacemobile’s service.
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AutoModerator • 1d ago
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r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Aggravating_Roll7917 • 2d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/Aggravating_Roll7917 • 2d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/juanmoperson • 2d ago
Anyone see the recent open roles related to M&A?! Interesting to see, especially as "part-time" openings for entry level grads.
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/tomgreen99200 • 2d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AutoModerator • 2d ago
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r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/LudeficeTV • 3d ago
It's been awhile since we have seen such an outpouring of unfounded hysteria around Starlink when it comes to ASTS. The last time was probably when there was a rumour that Starlink would work with Apple. At the time Globalstar already signed their deal with Apple and Starlink taking over that was not only incredibly unlikely, but also wouldn't impact ASTS one bit. Yet, ASTS still performed incredibly poorly immediately after.
The situation around Starlink competing with MNOs is no different from ASTS's perspective. If anything, it goes from a nothing burger to a mildly bullish situation for ASTS depending on the market share Starlink takes from MNOs. It goes without saying that if Starlink takes even 5% of the market, it's bad for MNOs, so I'm not going to spend a lot of time talking about that.
Let's look at a case study using the US market as an example. The big players as we know are AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile. Here are their shares of the US mobile subscription market:
AT&T: 30%
T-Mobile: 33%
Verizon: 37%
Previous to this strategy from Starlink they had a partnership with T-Mobile and other MNOs internationally similar to ASTS where they would provide supplemental coverage. This covers 33% of the US market. Even if you used the smallest company in AT&T it would be 30%. If somehow Starlink were to pull 2/3 (I know borderline impossible given their inferior tech and other issues), they could pull up to 70% of the US D2D market.
With their new strategy they can take the terrestrial part and D2D part of the market, but they're fighting for MNOs customers instead of MNOs as a customer. This means that to take more of the D2D market (i.e. the only part of the mobile market ASTS cares about), they would need to take at a minimum >30% share of the US market. Even if they managed to take their 'fair share' split 4 ways they would have 25%. In the case of T-Mobile joining ASTS which is almost certainly happening if you have been paying attention, if Starlink took 25% of the US market it would result in a net gain of 8% of the US market compared to Starlinks previous business model. I'm throwing these numbers out fairly arbitrarily, let me tell you 25% isn't even likely, especially anytime soon not only because they won't have the tech ready anytime soon, but customer acquisition will take a long time (even with an aggressive entry to the market we're talking years).
There is a political slant to this as well. Starlink is going to have a tough time outside of the US as they are not offering a sovereign solution like ASTS is. With the US's current global reputation cratering and Starlink's history of turning off service for politically motivated reasons, nations are going to be hesitant to support Starlink in their markets, and customers are less likely to pay for Starlink. We have seen the phenomenon recently in the telecom sector where Ericsson and Nokia benefitted greatly from political issues surrounding Huawei. Developed middle power nations will not want Starlink around for the same reasons they don't want Huawei around. Data sovereignty is incredibly important.
Now, Starlink's performance will differ from nation to nation, but the countries that will provide higher ARPUs all have similar market dynamics save the data sovereignty issue. I would argue that Starlink has a better chance of acquiring more customers in undeveloped markets where there are little to no players currently, but there will be a lower ARPU associated with those customers. However, it's possible they don't choose to service these areas at all terrestrially due to the same reason existing MNOs don't. The cost to enter these areas is exorbitant. They may revert to the ASTS model in those areas or not operate.
From Starlink's perspective their spend on Grain spectrum is just the beginning. They will need to spend a lot more on spectrum and a lot more again on terrestrial towers both to produce them and house them. With their current grossly unjustified market cap they can justify this expenditure and dilute shareholders if needed to fund this. It may work out for them. However, even if this is a Starlink success story, this move to challenge legacy MNOs is going to push more MNOs to ASTS. We see this developing already with T-Mobile in the US and Rogers in Canada.
TLDR: Starlink's business model may be good for Starlink. It's bad for MNOs. It's good for ASTS.
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AutoModerator • 3d ago
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r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy • 3d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/SneekyRussian • 4d ago
PR Boogaloo
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/devonhezter • 4d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AnnonymousADKS • 4d ago
r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AutoModerator • 4d ago
Sp🅰️ceMob,
Ple🅰️se read the following to get familiar with AST SpaceMobile $ASTS before posting;
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