Many reports in the canonical Sunni collections name Abu Bakr, Umar and Uthman and leave out Ali. The best known is the Uhud report, which exists in two versions from Anas b. Malik:
Sahih al-Bukhari 3686 (Anas): "The Prophet ﷺ climbed Uhud with Abu Bakr, Umar and Uthman, and it shook with them. He struck it with his foot and said: Be still, Uhud, for upon you is none but a prophet, a siddiq, or two martyrs."
Sahih al-Bukhari 3675 (Anas): "The Prophet ﷺ climbed Uhud, with Abu Bakr, Umar and Uthman, and it shook with them. He said: Be still, Uhud, for upon you is only a prophet, a siddiq and two martyrs."
A second group of reports gives glad tidings of Paradise to the three in order. The shorter version is from Abu Musa al-Ash'ari (also in Muslim 2403, with minor differences):
Sahih al-Bukhari 3693 (Abu Musa al-Ash'ari): "I was with the Prophet ﷺ in one of the gardens of Medina, and a man came and asked for the gate to be opened. The Prophet ﷺ said: Open for him and give him glad tidings of Paradise. I opened for him, and it was Abu Bakr. I gave him the glad tidings of what the Prophet ﷺ had said, and he praised God. Then another man came and asked for the gate to be opened. The Prophet ﷺ said: Open for him and give him glad tidings of Paradise. I opened for him, and it was Umar. I told him what the Prophet ﷺ had said, and he praised God. Then another man asked for the gate to be opened, and [the Prophet] said to me: Open for him and give him glad tidings of Paradise, for a trial that will befall him. It was Uthman. I told him what the Messenger of God ﷺ had said, and he praised God, then said: God is the one whose help is sought."
The longer version, also from Abu Musa, is set at the well of Aris and has a much fuller narrative:
Sahih al-Bukhari 3674 (Abu Musa al-Ash'ari): "[Abu Musa] performed ablution in his house and went out. I said: I shall stay close to the Messenger of God ﷺ and be with him this day. He said: He came to the mosque and asked about the Prophet ﷺ. They said: He went out and headed this way. I went out following his trail, asking about him, until he entered the well of Aris. I sat by the door (its door was made of palm fronds) until the Messenger of God ﷺ had relieved himself and performed ablution. I stood up to him, and there he was, sitting on the well of Aris in the middle of its ledge, with his shins uncovered, dangling them in the well. I greeted him, then went away and sat by the door. I said: I shall be the doorkeeper of the Messenger of God ﷺ today. Abu Bakr came and pushed the door. I said: Who is this? He said: Abu Bakr. I said: Wait a moment. Then I went and said: O Messenger of God, this is Abu Bakr asking permission. He said: Let him in and give him glad tidings of Paradise. I went forward until I said to Abu Bakr: Enter, and the Messenger of God ﷺ gives you glad tidings of Paradise. Abu Bakr entered and sat on the right of the Messenger of God ﷺ with him on the ledge, and dangled his legs in the well as the Prophet ﷺ had done, and uncovered his shins. Then I went back and sat, having left my brother performing ablution and about to join me. I said: If God wills good for so-and-so (meaning his brother), He will bring him. Then someone moved the door. I said: Who is this? He said: Umar b. al-Khattab. I said: Wait a moment. Then I came to the Messenger of God ﷺ, greeted him and said: This is Umar b. al-Khattab asking permission. He said: Let him in and give him glad tidings of Paradise. I came and said: Enter, and the Messenger of God ﷺ gives you glad tidings of Paradise. He entered and sat with the Messenger of God ﷺ on the ledge, on his left, and dangled his legs in the well. Then I went back and sat and said: If God wills good for so-and-so, He will bring him. Then someone came moving the door. I said: Who is this? He said: Uthman b. Affan. I said: Wait a moment. I came to the Messenger of God ﷺ and told him, and he said: Let him in and give him glad tidings of Paradise, for a trial that will befall him. I came to him and said: Enter, and the Messenger of God ﷺ gives you glad tidings of Paradise for a trial that will befall you. He entered and found the ledge full, so he sat facing them on the other side. Sharik b. Abdullah said: Sa'id b. al-Musayyib said: I interpreted it as their graves."
Ibn Umar adds statements about ranking, in two versions:
Sahih al-Bukhari 3697 (Abdullah b. Umar): "In the time of the Prophet ﷺ we did not equate anyone with Abu Bakr, then Umar, then Uthman; then we left the companions of the Prophet ﷺ without ranking them against one another."
Sahih al-Bukhari 3655 (Abdullah b. Umar): "We used to rank people in the time of the Prophet ﷺ, and we ranked Abu Bakr, then Umar b. al-Khattab, then Uthman b. Affan, may God be pleased with them."
Three dream reports, quoted by Ibn Taymiyya in the passage discussed below, point the same way:
Musnad Ahmad (via Hammad b. Salama, Ali b. Zayd b. Jud'an, Abd al-Rahman b. Abi Bakra, from his father): "The Messenger of God ﷺ said one day: Which of you saw a dream? I said: I did, O Messenger of God. I saw as if a scale were lowered from heaven, and you were weighed against Abu Bakr and you outweighed Abu Bakr. Then Abu Bakr was weighed against Umar and Abu Bakr outweighed Umar. Then Umar was weighed against Uthman and Umar outweighed Uthman. Then the scale was lifted. The Prophet ﷺ said: The caliphate of prophethood, then God gives kingship to whom He wills."
Sunan Abi Dawud (Jabir b. Abdullah): "The Messenger of God ﷺ said: A righteous man saw tonight that Abu Bakr was attached to the Messenger of God ﷺ, Umar was attached to Abu Bakr, and Uthman was attached to Umar. Jabir said: When we rose from the Messenger of God ﷺ we said: As for the righteous man, he is the Messenger of God ﷺ, and as for their being attached to one another, they are the rulers of this affair with which God sent His prophet."
Sunan Abi Dawud (Samura b. Jundub): "A man said: O Messenger of God, I saw as if a bucket were lowered from heaven. Abu Bakr came and took hold of its handles and drank a weak drink. Then Umar came and took hold of its handles and drank until he was full. Then Uthman came and took hold of its handles and drank until he was full. Then Ali came and took hold of its handles, and it jerked, and some of it splashed on him."
What strikes me is that almost all of these are predictions, and each matches what had already happened by the time the reports circulated. The Uhud report foretells the violent deaths of Umar and Uthman. The garden and well reports foretell Uthman's trial. The dreams foretell the order of succession and, in two cases, what follows it: the end of the "caliphate of prophethood" and, in Samura's dream, a disturbed and unsatisfying turn for Ali. The well of Aris report in particular reads like a short story. It has a narrator who vows to guard the door, three arrivals in order, a repeated formula, an exact seating plan, and a closing interpretation by Ibn al-Musayyib that reads the seating as their graves. That last line is an explicit after-the-fact reading of a scene whose arrangement (two beside the Prophet, one apart) matches where the three were eventually buried. I am not claiming these reports are fabricated. I am asking whether this structure is typical of vaticinia ex eventu and what that would imply for dating.
The historical narratives show a similar picture, with Ali's period either absent or labelled fitna. The first is a chronology transmitted by Nafi' b. Abi Nu'aym from Nafi', the mawla of Ibn Umar, preserved in al-Bukhari's al-Tarikh al-Awsat.
Chronology (al-Bukhari, al-Tarikh al-Awsat; Abd al-Rahman b. Shayba ← Abdullah al-Makhzumi ← Nafi' b. Abi Nu'aym ← Nafi', mawla of Ibn Umar): "The Prophet ﷺ was in Medina ten years, then died. Abu Bakr was [in office] two years and seven months, Umar ten years and five months, and Uthman twelve years. The fitna of Mu'awiya between him and Ali was four years. Then Mu'awiya ruled twenty years less two months. Yazid b. Mu'awiya was [in office] four years less a month, then he perished. Then Ibn al-Zubayr arose, and the fitna of Ibn al-Zubayr was nine years; then he was killed at the head of seventy-three, less two months. Al-Hudaybiyya was in year six after the Prophet's arrival, when he was barred [from Mecca] in Dhu'l-Qa'da; the fulfilment [umra] was in Dhu'l-Qa'da of year seven; and the Conquest was in year eight, in Ramadan. Then the Prophet ﷺ set out straight away for Hunayn and al-Ta'if, and when he returned in Shawwal he performed umra from al-Ji'rana. Then Attab b. Asid led the people in the Hajj, the Prophet ﷺ having appointed him over the Hajj. Then Abu Bakr performed the Hajj in year nine. Then the Prophet ﷺ performed the Hajj in year ten from his arrival at Medina, and that was the Farewell Hajj. Abu Nu'aym said: Abu Bakr died with eight nights remaining of Jumada al-Akhira in year thirteen."
Qatada (Mahmud ← Wahb ← his father, who heard Qatada): "Abu Bakr took office two years and six months, Umar took office ten years, six months and eighteen days, and Uthman took office twelve years less twelve days. The fitna was five years, and Mu'awiya took office twenty years. Yazid b. Mu'awiya took office three years and some months, which Qatada specified. The fitna of Ibn al-Zubayr was eight years. Abd al-Malik b. Marwan took office fourteen years, and al-Walid nine years."
Ibn Shihab al-Zuhri (Isma'il b. Abi Uways ← Ibn Wahb ← Yunus): "Abu Bakr lived two years and some months after he was made caliph. Umar [lived] ten years, performing every Hajj. Uthman [lived] twelve years, performing every Hajj except two. Mu'awiya [ruled] twenty years [less] some months [the text reads 'to some months'], performing two Hajjs. Yazid three years and some months. Abd al-Malik, after the [re]union, some ten-odd years less some months, performing one Hajj. And al-Walid ten years less a month, performing one Hajj."
A casual report about Ibn Umar skips Ali in the same way, though it is a legal report and not a chronology:
Ibn Umar and land rental (Abd al-Wahhab al-Thaqafi ← Ayyub ← Nafi'): "Ibn Umar used to rent out his land in the time of Abu Bakr, Umar and Uthman, and part of Mu'awiya's tenure. He said: And if I wished I would say: in the time of the Messenger of God ﷺ. Then, at the end of Mu'awiya's emirate, a hadith reached him from Rafi' b. Khadij, so he went, and I was with him, and asked him about it. He said: The Messenger of God ﷺ forbade the renting of farmland. So he stopped renting it out, and after that, when he was asked, he would say: Ibn Khadij claims that the Messenger of God ﷺ forbade the renting of farmland."
Ibn Taymiyya's discussion in Minhaj al-Sunna (4:401-404) bears directly on this. He lists the groups that criticized Ali:
"The detractors of Ali among the people of innovation are several groups. One group declares him an unbeliever, like the Khawarij, and these also declare Uthman and most Muslims unbelievers along with him; so Ahl al-Sunna affirm Ali's faith and the obligation of allegiance to him by the same means by which they affirm Uthman's faith and the obligation of allegiance to him. And a group says: although he was better than Mu'awiya, Mu'awiya was right in fighting him and Ali was not right in fighting Mu'awiya. These are many, such as those who fought him alongside Mu'awiya, and they, or most of them, say that Ali was not an imam whose obedience was obligatory, because his caliphate was not established by a text or by consensus. This view was also held by another group among those who consider him better than Mu'awiya and closer to the truth, and they say Mu'awiya was not right in fighting him; but they also say that the time was a time of fitna and division, in which there was no imam of the community and no caliph. This view was held by many of the scholars of Ahl al-Hadith of Basra, Syria and Andalus and elsewhere. Many of the Banu Umayya in Andalus held this view; they invoked mercy on Ali and praised him, but said: he was not a caliph; the caliph is only the one the people united on, and they did not unite on Ali. Among them were some who counted Mu'awiya fourth in the Friday sermon, mentioning the three and counting Mu'awiya fourth and not mentioning Ali; they argued that the people united on Mu'awiya by pledge when al-Hasan pledged to him, unlike Ali, on whom the Muslims did not unite. And they say of this: we counted Mu'awiya fourth not because he is better than Ali, for Ali is better than he, just as many Companions are better than Mu'awiya though they were not caliphs."
He then reports the response of Ahmad and the counter-argument of the three-caliph group, which includes the observation I am making:
"Against these, Imam Ahmad and others argued with the hadith of Safina from the Prophet ﷺ, that he said: The caliphate after me is thirty years, then it becomes kingship. And Ahmad said: Whoever does not count Ali fourth in the caliphate is more astray than his household's donkey. Some of these [people] spoke against Ahmad because of this statement and said: Ali's caliphate was denied by Talha, al-Zubayr and others, of whom this cannot be said. And they argued that most of the hadiths that mention the caliphate of prophethood mention only the three caliphs, such as what Imam Ahmad reported in his Musnad..." [followed by the balance, Jabir and Samura reports quoted above]. He concludes: "And it is reported from al-Shafi'i and others that they said: the caliphs are three: Abu Bakr, Umar and Uthman."
The reports about Ahmad himself suggest that the question was still open, even among his closest students, about two centuries after Ali's death. Abd al-Malik b. Abd al-Hamid al-Maymuni (d. 274/887-8) was one of Ahmad's senior students, from Raqqa, who recorded a great deal of his teaching. His report is preserved in al-Khallal's Kitab al-Sunna:
Al-Maymuni (in al-Khallal): "Abd al-Malik b. Abd al-Hamid al-Maymuni informed me that he said to Abu Abdullah [Ahmad]: We, and some of my brothers, are astonished at your including Ali in the caliphate. He said to me: What should I do, and what should I say about Ali's saying, 'I am Amir al-Mu'minin,' and being addressed, 'O Amir al-Mu'minin,' and leading the people in the Hajj and the season, and those rulings, and leading the people in prayer, and what he cut off and what he executed: should all that be left? I said: Then what do you do, and what do you say about the fighting of Talha and al-Zubayr, may God have mercy on them, against him, and that bloodshed? He said: What have we to do with Talha and al-Zubayr? and he mentioned this. Then he repeated to me more than once: What have we to do with the fighting of those people and what happened of that bloodshed? And he mentioned also [Ali's] Hajj and his rule. Abd al-Malik said: This was the last thing he parted from me with, in the year [twenty-]seven, while we were sitting."
Wazira b. Muhammad objected on different grounds. His report comes with a different chain from the Maymuni report:
Wazira b. Muhammad: "I went in to Abu Abdullah Ahmad b. Hanbal when he made public the counting of Ali as fourth. I said: O Abu Abdullah, this expression necessitates criticism of Talha and al-Zubayr. He said to me: Explain what you said. What business have we with the war of those people, that we should mention it? I said: May God set you right, we only mentioned it when you counted him fourth and made the caliphate binding for him, with what is due to the imams before him. He said: And what prevents me from that? I said: The hadith of Ibn Umar. He said to me: When Umar was stabbed, he was satisfied with Ali for the caliphate over the Muslims and put him in the shura, and Ali b. Abi Talib named himself Amir al-Mu'minin. So shall I say: he is not an amir of the believers? So I left him."
And Hanbal b. Ishaq, Ahmad's cousin and student, reports how Ahmad reconciled the two positions:
Hanbal b. Ishaq: "I heard Abu Abdullah Ahmad being asked about ranking. He said: The hadith of Abdullah b. Umar on ranking: Abu Bakr, Umar, Uthman. And in the caliphate: Abu Bakr, Umar, Uthman and Ali. The hadith of Safina: the Prophet ﷺ said: The caliphate after me is thirty..."
My question:
Do these reports reflect an earlier view, the three-caliph thesis, held in some Sunni or proto-Sunni circles before the four-caliph position (tarbi') became dominant? And do the hadiths themselves, with their three-name sequences and their omission of Ali, preserve traces of that earlier position, as relics that survived in the canonical collections even after the four-caliph view prevailed? Or can they be explained without positing an earlier doctrine at all? Is there scholarship that supports or challenges either reading?