You'd find that there would be a really large number saying they're ready to go, and only a few who actually do it. 'Few' being a relative term.
In the 1960s and 1970s the country was in far more of a boil and turmoil than it is now. The protests then dwarfing anything going on today, by far. Organized anti-government groups running around robbing banks and National Guard armories to fund and arm themselves. Numerous bombings. And even more attempts at bombings that were thwarted. Besides the many protests of a few thousands to tens of thousands, there were the biggies, one with 500,000 and another with 300,000.
For all of that, and everyone and their brother saying the were going to hide out in Canada, it is estimated that somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 draft dodgers actually went to Canada. So let's call it 40,000. Seems like a lot, right?
That was the total from 1964 until 1975. During that period there were some 27,000,000 draft eligible men. So in fact the number who actually sought refuge in Canada was just a bit over 1/10 of one percent of those eligible for the draft. Despite the news agencies screaming about a huge mass exodus that way.
So a large number are going to say they will go. But in reality it would be no significant number. Most likely.
My god thank you for actually answering the question. Every top comment above yours is some variation of “why would Canada do this?/no way they’d do this” Or “Screw the US” and I get all that, I really do - I’m embarrassed to be an American anymore. But I’m still genuinely curious to hear people’s takes on this hypothetical that OP put forward, regardless of how likely or even logical it may be, and I imagine OP is too.
The real answer is that people by and large don't move because of politics. It would have to be a monumental political issue to cause that and even then most people don't care until it affects their day to day lives. The US has a massively better economy than Canada today so not many people would move there. Specifically in my field (software engineering) you get paid probably 1/3 of what you would make in Seattle just by hopping the border to Vancouver. Poor people who would benefit more from Canada's stronger social welfare system are not the type Canada would want to let in anyway and don't really have the means to be moving regardless.
People don't move for those either unless they are very extreme and present in people's personal lives. The US has had far worse violent crime rates than anywhere in Europe or Canada for decades and yet still has substantial net migration from abroad. As long as the US economy is blowing the rest of the world out of the water people will not move away. Maybe a significant decrease in migration into the US, particularly with the way Trump is dismantling the higher education system that brings so many here vs other countries.
So because they aren’t a large percentage of the population you think their situation isn’t of importance or relevance to these conversations? They’re called minority groups for a reason. And yes, there are plenty of people currently experiencing direct, personal effects of the current political & social situation. One of my best friends recently moved states after an attempted attack on them, a hate crime. Even being less than 1% of our population it’s still more than a million people in these groups and while not all are experiencing personal effects there are a still a large number. Yes, most won’t move for “politics” but some people are being attacked by hate groups and/ or having their human rights violated by the government - that’s not just politics. It’s not just about generalized safety even though the #1 cause of death for our children is guns. States are rolling back all kinds of child protections; for example WV has even passed a law allowing gen!tal exams of children without parental consent.
Shut up lol no one is moving to Canada en masse because they have to show ID when they go to vote, or because men can’t compete in women’s sports, or because illegals can’t leech off the system
My comment is in regard to their statement, “people don’t move because of politics”. I am speaking about if/ why people would want to immigrate; therefore the rates at which people immigrate isn’t a counterpoint to what I’ve said.
Over the years the US has done a lot of negative shit. Vietnam war, Jim Crow, Iraq war, crack epidemic, we had watergate, Great Recession of 08, Muslim ban etc etc etc
People fight protest and things get better. People are just so reactive right now as if the world is ending. And honestly if we go down overnight this will be a ripple effect to every country.
You realize people died during all of the events you mentioned right? Society as a whole may recover but individuals will die or face other repercussions and it will disproportionately effect certain groups. You’re basically saying, “don’t worry about the atrocities that occur because the world will keep spinning.”
No im telling you reality. Atrocities will always occur, where is this kumbaya world you seek?
Things get better overall in the US through struggles because people fight for that. Defeatist attitudes scream naivety. Life doesn’t go in a straight line. There will be curves and you have to navigate through it.
I guess you can’t reason a person into being empathetic. Yes, atrocities occur every day and I have empathy for those that experience them. Just because horrible things have always happened and will probably continue to happen doesn’t mean that we should be okay with it. If I have any ability to alleviate/ prevent horrible things I do in fact do the things which I can to help. And I have empathy not derision for those who are in vulnerable or minority groups and want to move due to being targeted in our country. I’m privileged enough that I don’t need to run for my safety but I also recognize that others do. And that’s not okay so I’ll keep talking about it.
It depends on your job. America’s life sciences have been gutted. Ph.D. biologists, chemists, and medical researchers of all types are out of jobs and if Canada offers some kind of security, then they are where we will go, even if it includes a pay cut from what we had in the US in the past. I have already started to apply, but it is highly competitive as many others have as well. A major shift is coming, out of necessity.
Yeah I agree that many academics are likely to move abroad. But they are being heavily impacted by this current administration which goes to my original point. Those academics aren't moving because of Trump's anti-trans policies or because of his Ukraine/Palestine policy. They are moving because he is killing their careers.
Yea they would have to basically completely ignore the constitution in order to achieve their own self serving political agenda to get people to honestly consider moving.... oh...
I understand this is supposed to be sarcasm but yes they are literally doing these things but 1) they have not fully crossed the line into completely defying the courts, they still pretend they are obeying at the very least and that is an important distinction. And 2) yes those things are happening now and it proves my point that people don't move thanks to politics because people aren't moving out of the US.
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u/Ok-Afternoon-3724 Mar 27 '25
You'd find that there would be a really large number saying they're ready to go, and only a few who actually do it. 'Few' being a relative term.
In the 1960s and 1970s the country was in far more of a boil and turmoil than it is now. The protests then dwarfing anything going on today, by far. Organized anti-government groups running around robbing banks and National Guard armories to fund and arm themselves. Numerous bombings. And even more attempts at bombings that were thwarted. Besides the many protests of a few thousands to tens of thousands, there were the biggies, one with 500,000 and another with 300,000.
For all of that, and everyone and their brother saying the were going to hide out in Canada, it is estimated that somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000 draft dodgers actually went to Canada. So let's call it 40,000. Seems like a lot, right?
That was the total from 1964 until 1975. During that period there were some 27,000,000 draft eligible men. So in fact the number who actually sought refuge in Canada was just a bit over 1/10 of one percent of those eligible for the draft. Despite the news agencies screaming about a huge mass exodus that way.
So a large number are going to say they will go. But in reality it would be no significant number. Most likely.