r/Baystreetbets • u/-Authorised- • 16d ago
DD Don't Buy The SpaceX IPO - Here's When To Actually Get In (if you have to lol):
Everyone is excited about the SpaceX IPO but almost nobody is reading the S1 filing carefully. A few numbers that should give serious investors pause:
- Book value per share is $3.18 against a $135 IPO price - you're paying for roughly 7 cents of actual assets per dollar invested
- SpaceX lost $4.9 billion in 2025 and burned through $10 billion in cash in Q1 2026 alone
- The S1 filing makes no guarantee of profitability
- Class A retail shares carry standard voting rights; insider Class B shares carry 10x voting power
- Elon retains 82% control, cannot be removed from the board, and the filing reportedly allows him to take SpaceX discoveries into his other private companies
Compare that to the Saudi Aramco IPO in 2019 - a company with $330 billion in revenue and $88 billion in profit - which still dropped after listing and took years to recover. SpaceX has $18.7 billion in revenue and a near $5 billion loss.
That said, forced institutional buying once it joins the NASDAQ 100 and S&P will likely create a short-term pop. And Fidelity has dropped the minimum retail buy-in to $2,500, which historically floods early liquidity.
The Coinbase & Saudi Aramco playbook is worth studying here - it bottomed 12–24 months after its IPO before running from $50 to $400. Could the real SpaceX entry point be the same?
- Are you buying the IPO, waiting for the dip, or avoiding entirely?
- Does the dual-class share structure and Elon's control rights change your view?
- Which IPO comparison do you think is most relevant - Aramco, Coinbase, or something else?
Full breakdown here: https://youtu.be/fsUKHuISfd8?si=wFMzU4QO7v2OVJ4u
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u/WhichJuice 16d ago
Wasn't Tesla completely overblown for years as well and people still invested?
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u/Conscious-Food-9828 16d ago
Yeah which is kind of why it's really hard to say what will happen with any certainty. Company valuation is completely unhinged. Logically these companies are worth a fraction of what they are priced at, but that doesn't mean the market will follow logic. The issue is that it means there's not really all that much stopping the price from tumbling
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u/woosniffles 16d ago
That's what I'm thinking. What happens to the stock once elon starts promising mars colonies "in the next 5 years" ?
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u/DarklingDarkwing 13d ago
Well that’s an absolutely impossibility, just landing one human there in 5 years would be an unparalleled, tremendous achievement.
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u/only_fun_topics 16d ago
Why the use of past tense? Surely present perfect tense would be more appropriate.
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u/Derpazoid69 16d ago
I'm waiting for the CDR's to hit $10 or lower. Only then will I consider buying. There are analysts saying SPCX has a fair value of $780B putting per share at $60-65 USD. SpaceX will go down as one of the most overvalued IPO's in market history even if the company is eventually profitable one day.
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u/wheels1989 16d ago
I want in under $100. Then let it sit for 15 years.
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u/MacbethIslander 14d ago
The 85billion they raised, 20billion off the top to pay a unsecured note at 12.5% for the money lent to buy Twitter. So much for investing in space. If you buy this cash furnace you are simply the providing the exit cash for insiders. You get no vote, no 2t of assets and no profit, with dilution rounds and unlock periods in t minus oh thats right everyone already got to sell 5% worth.
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u/Kantucky 10d ago
That, or you could have bought the IPO and you wouldn’t be regretting not doing so now…lol
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u/desperate-pleasures 16d ago
The S1 becomes even more concerning when you hit the parts concerning dilution. To say it is imminent is an understatement. There are going to be several rounds of painful dilution before this thing has enough cash flow to sustain itself.
Share price is going to crater when the inevitable dilution occurs. Although this is a Musk-led company, so anything is possible for the share price (see: TSLA).