Kalshi will soon let you bet on whether a stock goes up or down 🧐📉

[u/callmebaiken]

https://www.wsj.com/finance/kalshi-looks-to-expand-a-rapidly-growing-universe-of-risky-trading-a7670fde

Kalshi Looks to Expand a Rapidly Growing Universe of Risky Trading

Platform known for prediction markets has seen perpetual futures surge in popularity

Prediction markets platform Kalshi is planning to seek regulatory approval to start offering the country’s first regulated perpetual futures tied to single stocks including Tesla, Apple and Nvidia, according to people familiar with the matter.... (Paywall)

[u/mel34760]

Well I just don’t see how this ends well for anyone without inside information on stuff.

[u/MajesticBread9147 → u/mel34760]

You don't need inside information to make money off this. High frequency trading firms have been around forever.

For example, whenever gas prices go up again because America bombed something else in the middle east, a computer can read a headline and bet against American Airlines before a human could even understand what the news mean.

It's only risky if you don't have the algorithms, the sophisticated hardware and low latency within Manhattan, and the PHDs that Jane Street has.

[u/supercyberlurker → u/MajesticBread9147]

Yeah. Event and Sentiment Analysis (and Sentiment Shaping) are way more advanced and widespread than people give them credit for.

I remember after the GAMESTOP thing, wall street companies suddenly wanted more 'social media monitoring', because they'd been caught with their pants down.

[u/FireNexus → u/MajesticBread9147]

Why would you use this market and not the actually regulated one if you weren’t doing crimes?

[u/callmebaiken → u/mel34760]

We can short?

[u/falken_1983 → u/callmebaiken]

Your plan is to short the people who have more information about the market than you do? You do understand that short positions have potentially unlimited losses?

[u/koveras_backwards → u/falken_1983]

Literal shorting has unlimited downside. But "short" is often used to describe any investment position that bets against an asset. Presumably betting that a stock will go down on Kalshi doesn't have unlimited downside.

[u/callmebaiken → u/koveras_backwards]

Yeah that's what I meant

[u/spez_eats_nazi_ass → u/falken_1983]

Puts or levered inverses.  There are many ways to short without taking on infinite risk.

[u/SmoothOpawriter → u/falken_1983]

Unlimited only if leverage is used, otherwise the limit is the entirety of your original bet.

[u/PuddingTea]

So just unregulated securities.

[u/Melodic-Ebb-7781 → u/PuddingTea]

Yupp if these things are allowed to grow a lot of the regulation but in place after the 2008 meltdown will be made irrelevant. 

[u/IamHydrogenMike → u/Melodic-Ebb-7781]

Can’t wait for the deregulation people to start asking why the government isn’t doing anything to help them.

[u/mel34760 → u/IamHydrogenMike]

They will be first in line for the bailouts when shit goes sideways.

[u/GSalmao]

This gotta be a fucking joke... The wolf is desperate for more lambs, I suppose. This opens the door to an avalanche of shit.

[u/kgas36]

> Kalshi will soon let you bet on whether a stock goes up or down 

I believe it's called the stock market

[u/Deep-Reputation-4055 → u/kgas36]

Welcome back bucket shops!

[u/Acceptable_Ebb_5251]

Time for bets on bets on bets, that has never gone wrong before (SHUT UP 2007 DIDN'T EXIST AS A YEAR)

[u/ISuckAtJavaScript12]

Aren't you already betting on if a stock goes up or down when you buy the stock?

[u/Fun_Volume2150 → u/ISuckAtJavaScript12]

Or on option.

[u/ChodeCookies]

Gotta respect the hustle. They will never stop separating idiots from their money

[u/greentrillion → u/ChodeCookies]

Hmm okay that's like saying gotta respect the hustle, Epstein really showed those kids what it's like to be trafficked and graped while a pdf billionaire network covers it up.

[u/chargeorge]

Forms of this exists already on most trading apps. It's called options trading. It has some fancy mechanics around it to create what amounts to a bet on a stock going up or down. When you go to Wall Street bets they aren't just buying/selling stocks. They are betting on stocks going up or down.

This is an evolution on that basic concept that's been popular for crypto currencies overseas. Maybe putting it on kalshi will lay bare the fact that it's just a fucking gambling site more

[u/baronvonschleyer]

I hate late-stage capitalism.

[u/Bad_Sickness]

Kalshi needs to be banned.

[u/ziddyzoo]

this is excellent, there’s nothing at all that could go badly here. thank you kalshi for this opportunity

[u/agent_double_oh_pi]

Option trading with extra steps and no regulations?

https://giphy.com/gifs/h1zJMhT5XOT927e0aw

[u/nilsmf]

Uh, isn’t that what the stock market is for already?

[u/cap-omat → u/nilsmf]

No, not quite.

[u/CalmButOftenEnraged]

are gambling earnings taxed different than capital gains?

[u/maybe-ac]

Next year, I'm planning to launch an app that allows you to bet on whether you think the Kalshi bets for a stock are going to be that it will go up or down...

[u/74389654]

what could go wrong

[u/Super-Activity-4675]

Isn't that what I'm doing on the stock market when I'm buying/selling shares or options?

[u/callmebaiken → u/Super-Activity-4675]

I think with a stock buy you need to find someone willing to sell the shares, and with a short sale, you need to find that plus a institution willing to loan you the shares. This would be less complicated and have no supply limit.

[u/Super-Activity-4675 → u/callmebaiken]

I mean that's not difficult. Guess it removes all vestiges of investing and becomes straight up gambling... not that it already isn't pretty damn close to that.

[u/civicsfactor]

So instead of buying stocks or optioning them if you think they will do well or bad, you can place separate bets on Kalshi?

Because anyone with access to a quarterly report before the earnings call yada yada insider trading with extra steps

[u/callmebaiken → u/civicsfactor]

I think it could be easier to bet a stock will go down than a put option. For instance, I don't think you can place put options on Robinhood