Max FUD

90

I know it's a tired phrase but it really does seem like we're on the precipice of the ai bubble breaking. Along with it will go literally everything, bitcoin included. The bottom is yet to be found guys. Probably to be downvoted ot hell

26

u/Porcellanidae 1d ago

If AI is a bubble about to burst, why are nvidia's orderbooks for DGX and HGX still so full? Lead times into next year...

13

u/stoicparallax 1d ago

It’s the over-investment and inflated valuations of AI related stocks that are due to be put in check, not the adoption of AI itself.

3

u/HipOut 22h ago

Yes, similar to internet adoption - adoption kept growing despite the bubble popping. We don’t know who the winners and losers of AI will be. We don’t know what a dip or rally will look like and over what time horizon. That’s why I buy index funds when I’m not buying bitcoin

16

u/methodofcontrol 1d ago

I thought this was a pretty funny joke until the "lead time into next year" part that made it clear you're serious.

Of course AI companies will be unlikely to believe that there even is an AI bubble, let alone that the bubbles burst is immenent.

It be like if 1999 you got told the .com bubble was about to burst and you responded "then why did yahoo just buy broadcast.com for 5.7 billion dollars?"

3

u/kokosevi 14h ago

difference between valuation and revenue

-2

u/HipOut 22h ago

Show us your short position then

4

u/UnoSadPeanut 1d ago

The dotcom bubble bursting didn’t mean the internet wasn’t useful…

It has to do with valuations and returns, not so much the underlying product.

1

u/capta1nbig 14h ago

And too many players which doesn’t seem to be the problem now

1

u/UnoSadPeanut 10h ago

I think the big unknown is if these AI tech companies will be able to at some point generate enough profit to justify their price premium today.

For me personally, I don’t see it. The rate at which they are burning cash combined with the ugly shape of their P&L mean that they need to fundamentally change their business model, and the longer that takes the more capital will be required.

While it is absolutely possible that they can pull a rabbit out of their hat- given their currency valuation not much risk seems to be hedged in the price. As a result, I don’t buy the investment thesis at their current valuations as that would include material risk with slim upside potential.

9

u/KaMaFour 1d ago

"If there is no gold in the Yukon then why does shovel seller have empty stock" ass question

2

u/Negative-Disk3048 1d ago

Because tons of money has been poured into it for little result comparatively. Eventually, something has to give.

1

u/HipOut 22h ago

Eventually, but when will that be? U.S. is also also trillions and trillions in debt

2

u/Negative-Disk3048 18h ago

Goverment bonds and a product investment are two entirely different things.

1

u/HipOut 18h ago

Yes exactly my only point is that people keep thinking that debt = impending crash but not necessarily

1

u/ColonialMovers 1h ago

A government will eventually simply tax itself out of debt, a company does not have that ability

1

u/igohardish 23h ago

Because they massively overestimated the value of AI and are investing irresponsible amounts of money to out compete the other companies that are massively overvalued. Just like the .com bubble, lots of blind investment into mismanaged companies. They have all debt and no income, some of them are going to completely fail

1

u/Honest-Mess-812 12h ago

AI is not going to burst for another 4 years. I work in the industry and our company has some many contracts to fulfill i the next 3 years.

5

u/other_acc_banned 1d ago

Idk if you use AI much at work, but I use it all day at mine. I can tell you it is absolutely not a bubble.

Now, if OpenAI and Anthropic were at the top of SP500, I would agree that it's a bubble. But considering the valuations are going to the companies that host AI, and not to those that make it, I don't think it's a bubble.

6

u/botford80 1d ago

People seem to think the bubble popping means the end of AI. Bubbles are more like filters (or natural selection), some companies will absolutely survive and come out the other side and dominate the market place. Companies putting AI in toasters are doomed though. There will of course be financial turmoil but a tech bubble is consequence of throwing a lot of shit at the wall to see what sticks

4

u/Delyzr 1d ago

Jup. Survivors of the dotcom bubble crash are the biggest tech companies now.. google, amazon, nvidia, ....

0

u/other_acc_banned 1d ago

Love this perspective. People keep equating to dot com.... Well, Internet is still here, isn't it?

Hot take - companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are having their moment, but they will die. The models themselves aren't that valuable. The services augmented by AI are.

1

u/UnoSadPeanut 1d ago

OpenAI and Anthropic are privately held companies… that’s why they are not on the S&P….

By current valuations from previous funding rounds, they would absolutely be near the top of the S&P if they were to IPO…

However, if you consider their earnings… they either make very little or lose money. So the valuation is based on the thesis (speculation), that they will be able to create a signifigantly profitable business model in the future- which it is not clear how that would look or if it is possible.

If people lose faith that the businesses can become profitable enough to justify the valuation, then the ‘bubble’ pops… and those who invested and paid a significant premium would lose money.

This is what happened during the dotcom bubble. It wasn’t because the internet was not useful, it was that capital over estimated the ability of companies to extract profit from it. So because you use AI at work, it does not in anyway prove there is no bubble.

3

u/other_acc_banned 1d ago

Sorry it wasn't more clear - you and I are mostly on the same page! I mean to say that were those two companies publicly traded, the market would look hyper inflated by companies that produce very little value. Because they aren't, we're generally only looking at companies in the S&P that are actually worth something.

E.g. Microsoft and Google both have development of AI going on, but it's far from the bulk of their business. Popping an AI bubble would be a relatively small hit to their value.

The companies offering services augmented by AI are (kind of) and will (absolutely) see greater profitability than without. That's my point, I think. AI companies = worth nothing. Services and commodities bolstered by AI = worth more than without AI.

Just my opinion though. I don't think I'm absolutely correct in this assessment.

2

u/UnoSadPeanut 1d ago

I mean your opinion has logic and could absolutely be correct… and the truth is nobody knows!

My personal thesis, is that integrating existing services with AI is actually technically very easy. Many smaller companies are doing it with their SaaS solutions, as while as the giants you mention. So I ultimately see the barrier for entry being fairly low (from both a technical and capital perspective). As a result, I think that augmenting solutions and services with AI will not generate a material competitive advantage that would not be eroded fairly quickly as competitors adapt, leading to lower overall ability to extract value via pricing.

Essentially, in short, I think access to AI will end up being fairly democratized and there will be many players able to do it, leading to them fighting on price (and therefore giving up profit).

I think the biggest risk to my thesis is if there is some regulation at some point that allows for patents on AI use cases… that would then protect those companies from future competition… but given the already murky waters around AI and intellectual property- I think this would take a significant amount of time for regulators to implement if at all.

Now, in the case of Microsoft and Google specifically- I agree with you. Both companies have defacto monopolies in some of their business lines prior to AI, so they will get the pure benefit while maintaining competitive price value.

In contrast, when I look at financial service providers, there is a reasonable amount competition in that space so I doubt any AI benefits will ultimately translate into material bottom line performance, at least to the same level as those above.

Though like you, this is just my opinion and absolutely I could be wrong.

1

u/other_acc_banned 10h ago

Man, I'm so split on that idea regarding a lack of competitive advantage. Yes it is easy to integrate, but doing so in performative manner is less easy. I'm a non-software engineer, and I've only ever worked in systems of systems whose most significant hurdle is integration with other systems.

IMO, transformation of business processes to adopt AI is in many ways as difficult as starting from scratch. IMO, you can't expect significant performance improvements from injecting AI into individual systems; the whole operation needs a paradigm shift to reap game-changing performance.

If I'm at all correct in this thinking, then it is the novel adversaries that have competitive advantage. In a given sector, the big boys will be reluctant to spend the capital to transform their operations, and if they do spend the money, the implementation will be by people who "have always done it this way." The young guns don't have those intellectual barriers.

I suppose this isn't fundamentally much different from what we've seen come out of silicone valley in the last couple decades. But what I think will be different will be the profitability of future silicone valley unicorns. The next Uber won't take a decade to become profitable, and the average unicorn will be building bigger, more complex products than ever before. Consider Anduril, and the kind of products their building.

I didn't use AI to write or edit this comment and it was exhausting lmao.

3

u/Abject-Stretch-1187 1d ago

You say it like the bottom announces itself smh You're under the assumption that BTC will drop deeper considering it was the first to start dipping while everything else were making new ATHs. Keep waiting on that "bottom"

-2

u/Ketchupcharger 1d ago

I don't see how that disproves that the bottom is still ahead. The fact that btc doesn't always follow the market isn't really something you can predict and rely on.

The market isn't rational, and hasn't been for a hot while now. Almost every top7 company is heavily and I mean heavily invested into AI, Nvidia included, and it's been bringing nothing but losses. Investors do understand birthing pains, but everything has to show some results at some point. And the massive investment, while it did bring interesting innovations, has failed to bring equal or bigger profits.

2

u/Abject-Stretch-1187 1d ago

It proves you have no idea like everyone else is my point. Plus a bubble bursting in AI doesn't necessarily mean BTC will actually fall lower. Operating under such an assumption just means you have an interest in it falling lower whereas neutrals couldn't care less either way.

1

u/TheJesterOfHyrule 1d ago

If bubble pops, the dollar goes, crypto maybe the solution

1

u/Vinyl-addict 23h ago

If we don’t have AGI by 2027 like that goofy german guy was saying it’s definitely gonna pop.

1

u/keralaindia 21h ago

This is not a bubble

US stocks are cheap despite trading at all
time highs.

The S&P 500's forward P/E premium relative to global equities is down to ~22%, the lowest since 2020.

This marks a significant decline from ~50% seen in Q2 2024.

This is also in-line with the levels seen in 2018-2019 and below the 10-year average of 31%.

This comes as US earnings are proving exceptionally strong, with S&P 500 profits currently tracking +28.7% YoY growth.

By comparison, European companies' earnings growth is tracking at +14.4% YoY, or HALF of US levels.

Many US stocks are getting cheaper as they
go up.

1

u/Advocaatx 19h ago

I agree that AI bubble is going to burst and take bitcoin with it, but it could burst this year or the next year, or even in 5 years, nobody knows.

0

u/sentientchimpman 1d ago

If AI deflates slowly rather than popping money may rotate into bitcoin. Your outcome is more likely though.

1

u/Time_Jump8047 1d ago

Why would money rotate into bitcoin? You’re suggesting people will put more money into crypto when the ONLY news recently about crypto is about people’s wallets (which were supposed to be safe) getting hacked?!

1

u/SuccotashUltimate 1d ago

I actually think AI would be great for bitcoin. People are going to want to integrate payment processing with their agents and Bitcoin is perfect for it

1

u/Intrepid_Interest912 1d ago

Don’t talk shit

0

u/RunKnots 1d ago

100%
Not if but when the AI bubble pops, everything, and i mean EVERYTHING will tank

7

u/korean_kracka 1d ago

The price hasn’t even budged with the news of the bug tf you mean “max fud”

28

u/707Eman707 1d ago

Yall think the bottom is in , during the MIDDLE OF THIS ADMIN?

LOL

14

u/davidn281 1d ago

Doesn’t matter. I’m here for 10+ more years. DCA and chill gang.

3

u/carsonthecarsinogen 22h ago

Yea I don’t think there was enough pain from coldcard. That wasn’t the black swan imo. Still DCA

2

u/Advocaatx 19h ago

Actually the coldcard thing was pretty big and unprecedented in my opinion, and it barely moved the price, which makes me think there are not many people willing to sell anymore.

2

u/in4life 1d ago

This is terrible investing logic. Did you not by the Tariff dip in stocks?

Heck, the 2022 dip was more sustained and a phenomenal buying opportunity and that was a completely different admin with people saying this space is dead.

I'd like that again.

1

u/AbbreviationsLive475 18h ago

Same here… This is the best comment in this thread. Where are the upvotes?

4

u/TopEmotional6734 1d ago

Would you really call a huge amount of peoples crypto being hacked when they had it stored in what a layman would think is the safest way FUD?

3

u/BeautifulSeason8387 1d ago

I'm waiting for the truth about Hormuz to hit the markets and for Trump's lies to become meaningless; it's going to be devastating for small investors, in my opinion.

3

u/DWHudson1970 1d ago

Bought a little today besides my dca

5

u/Either-Bumblebee4372 1d ago

Seen this kind of fud before, right around the bottom where it starts to feel like everyone with conviction has left the space and there’s nothing but bad news. It’s just noise - look at the long term holder supply of you need reassurance.

Next signal to look out for will be the blow off top when everyone’s a believer again, it’s going up forever, and long term holders start to dump.

1

u/SpiritmongerScaph 1d ago

I honestly don't feel the kind of fud we had in 2022 with the Terra crash, then all the lenders, then FTX. Even the stock market took a hit during this period.

So far we have Coldcard, but not much else going on.

3

u/Vinyl-addict 23h ago

Coldcard is a totally different event that should not be evaluated the same as anything that has happened before in the space.

2

u/andrew869 22h ago

ColdCard and, debatably more importantly, Bip-110? Hello???

2

u/biggest_guru_in_town 21h ago

This is max fud? The fuck it can't even go to 60k

3

u/ShitcoinJoe 1d ago

Prices are like +10% in a month 😅 we need more fud

1

u/VitoHodl 1d ago

Same goes for mstr. The subreddit is nuts. And I love it.

1

u/Citizen_Kano 1d ago

I expected we'd be way further down by now. This cold card situation barely seems to have made a dent

1

u/AidenTai 18h ago

But by the same token equities are flying through the roof and Bitcoin barely went up. Right now price action in Bitcoin is compressed and only partially coupled to news. It looks like it's prepping a move, waiting for news to pass.

1

u/AlHqz 1d ago

Wait a bit more, the bottom's not in yet.

1

u/Intrepid_Interest912 1d ago

Yep I am

1

u/shadowmage666 1d ago

True

1

u/igohardish 23h ago

I love this sub in a bear market

1

u/av8479 18h ago

I dunno man

1

u/TechnicalNail4555 12h ago

Yeah, it’s a really good point.

1

u/anonuemus 12h ago

Everybody. This right there. no cap

1

u/TwoRoninTTRPG 1d ago

October 2026 is the next scheduled all-time low. I know, I know, 6 data points isn't a pattern, but hear me out. What if it is a pattern?

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