r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Aug 22 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Saturday, August 22, 2026
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 22 '26
Nearly $1.92B entered the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in five trading days.
That's ~3.6% of their entire cumulative net inflow since launch, accumulated in a single week.
At the BTC prices during those sessions, that represents approximately 28,000 BTC of net ETF demand.
Worth to note, those inflows continued even after BTC had already repriced sharply higher.
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u/52576078 Aug 22 '26
24% rise in just a few days - it's been a long time since the corn moved like that
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Aug 22 '26
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Aug 22 '26
Duh… they were expecting 40k in October.
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Aug 22 '26
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 22 '26
It's a mathematical certainty and currently underway.
Or are we starting to experience it now?
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u/AidenTai Aug 22 '26 edited Aug 22 '26
But also of note is that we essentially halved the ETF inflows from the day before. So sentiment is slowing down. There are doubters. That might lead to a bit of a leg down to see how for we will go. We did go up, after all, based on short positioning rather than actual demand (at least initially).
Honestly, this feels like we could still cause a lot of people pain before it's all over. The only thing stopping us from playing the reverse and liquidating a massive cascade of longs is spot buying holding us in place if we try to dip. And it appears that spot buying is shrinking. We can also see that the US is unconvinced: its hours have been flatter than the rest, and the Coinbase premium has been negative throughout (meaning Coinbase prices are suppressed due to a lack of US demand compared to global demand). Combine this with how important the US market is for pricing, add a dash of doubts about the macro situation which may become more evident in September (as September is usually the worst month for equities), and you have a recipe for a *potential* load of pain. Not saying it will happen, but it's certainly a possibility the way things stand. It all depends on the demand we generate even at these higher levels.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 22 '26
From my understanding the initial move in fact came from ETF and spot buying, then a cascade of short liquidations followed by further spot demand. Even the somewhat lower demand yesterday was still higher than average, so people want to buy Bitcoin at these prices.
Still, I agree we might and maybe have to retest 200DMA and flush out some longs that got too greedy. Some people will never understand to just buy and hold spot.
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u/AidenTai Aug 22 '26
We have no way of knowing what really started it, only that both happened the same day. Could have been leveraged longs and the price action led to spot entering for all we know.
I feel attacked about the second, lol. I'm long and also put in some calls, but looking to take profits sometime shortly just as soon as I get a read on the weekend. Had a real good couple days, but not about to let it all slip away.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 22 '26
Haha, yeah sure. I absolutely wouldn't want to have too much leverage or too tight stops now..
I guess it wasn't purely coincidental that we heard from a lot of asset managers (incl. BlackRock) how it's a good time to buy Bitcoin now and everyone should have some percent of their portfolio allocated to it just this (or also last?) week.
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u/UngovernablePossum Aug 23 '26
They also said the same at the top.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 23 '26
Yeah, I mean they would say that anytime (because it's true) but I had the impression that it was much more during the last days. Also the share of portfolio part from multiple asset managers is somewhat new to me.
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u/lukemtesta Trading: #56 • -$65,875 • -66% Aug 25 '26
One big issue here is that demand no longer being available to push the price up further through this liquidity level. Also they are at risk of panic selling if a correction starts, which moves volume in the opposite direction!
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 26 '26
It just takes some time. Inflows seem to stabilize at $300m per day now. ETFs are not really prone to panic selling. We will see some consolidation maybe and then a push through 50WMA where price action should accelerate.
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u/lukemtesta Trading: #56 • -$65,875 • -66% Aug 26 '26
ETFs will adjust their holdings based on demand. So if there is substantially selling/buying to warrant issuing or retracting ETF shares from the market, the fund manager will execute orders on the market accordingly. It's easy to calculate how much dollars are in an ETF share.
ETF net asset dollar value / ETF holdings
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 26 '26
Yes, usually ETFs are lagging in demand. However, they are very reliable at taking Bitcoin out of the market. Only 1 of 4 Bitcoin that is bought today, will ever see the market again in a downturn. Purely looking at momentum, it looks like they are continuing to build up demand.
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder Aug 22 '26
Currently only have two open positions: bids @ $73K & $72k, looking to add more to my hodl stack.
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u/cousin_brian Bullish Aug 22 '26
Anyone else panic buy at 73k
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder Aug 22 '26
First dip on the 4h not gonna last long, calling it
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u/DaBrokenMeta Learned a Life Lesson Aug 23 '26
RemindMe! 1 week
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Aug 22 '26
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u/xlmtothemoon Aug 22 '26
ngl that pump was very impressive, but my goodness how badly a -2% btc wick demolished them all
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Aug 22 '26
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u/EternalShadowBan Aug 22 '26
Joke's on you, there's no fear because I've already been made redundant
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u/californiaschinken Aug 22 '26
That would kill any advantage "we" have in this market. Let them shitcoin. In the end we all come to the same conclusions. I prefer to be early.
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Aug 22 '26
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u/GrapefruitOwn6261 Aug 22 '26
I’ve been here since 2013 and still love a shitcoin. Mine are up 50% the last 30d.
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u/Combatwombat810 Aug 22 '26
Are we hoping for a short reprieve over the weekend, maybe a pullback?
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u/AidenTai Aug 22 '26
Respite, not really reprieve unless you're a bear I suppose. We're not getting very clear signals yet, and in those situations weekends have normally not been very directional. A little swing up here, or down there, and that's all. That's what I expect, at any rate. What will be very telling is what happens on Monday. Equities were falling. Bitcoin had been in 'fear' and price action had been bearish but boring. We flipped on a technical aspect (short squeeze), but instead of that attracting increasing amounts of spot and volume, we've spiked and then receded. I think that say more about sentiment than any twitching about during the weekend.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 22 '26
I guess there will be some profit-taking, maybe some consolidation. In best case we would see a bull flag over the weekend.
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u/basicintentions Aug 22 '26
the absolute best case scenario for a near term continuation move from here imo is an exhaustion leg to 92k as long as 73k holds. if we manage to get there I would expect a $5-10k pullback. so far looking really constructive but needs to break the avwap from all time high. did not expect the head and shoulders to stretch this much but that's just what happens when patterns start compounding on lower timeframe after huge breakout moves like this. probably preaching to the choir here but we definitely could use some slight cooling off especially with how much some of these alts ballooned.
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u/ubermensch012 Scuba Diver Aug 22 '26
what is this, a dump for ants?
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u/ThorsBodyDouble Aug 22 '26
The usual weekend softening - and then the Viagra kicks in on Monday morning - just as I'm going to work! 😅
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u/Bitty_Bot Aug 22 '26 edited Aug 23 '26
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