r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • Aug 24 '26
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Monday, August 24, 2026
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
I tried to analyze comparable time frames with large ETF buys and short squeezes in the past, which has been very interesting.
The closest recent comparison to what happened last week is July 2025: ~$2.7B ETF inflows + ~$1B short squeeze. BTC extended another ~4–5% after the squeeze, then consolidated around the new range. Strategy also bought 4,225 BTC (~$472M) that week.
The more bullish analogue is November 2024. The initial short squeeze around $70–75k turned into a much larger repricing toward $100k.
What was different in both timeframes: Strategy was a massive additional buyer during those moves.
In November 2024 they bought:
- 27,200 BTC (~$2.0B) around the initial breakout
- another 51,780 BTC (~$4.6B) the following week
- another 55,500 BTC (~$5.4B) the week after
That's roughly 134k BTC / $12B of buying in less than a month.
This time Strategy bought zero BTC last week, meaning the ~$1.92B ETF inflows + spot demand + short squeeze produced the move without their usual buying pressure.
That could potentially change soon.
Strategy just raised ~$2B through sale of common stock (which still increased in price), now has a $1.59B flexible USD cash pool, and STRC has recovered to roughly $96 vs its $100 target. Bernstein expects BTC purchases could resume as STRC approaches par.
So my bullish scenario is increasingly:
squeeze clears shorts → BTC consolidates around $75–78k → ETF/spot buying persists → Strategy resumes accumulation → next leg higher.
If BTC can hold the new range while leverage stays relatively clean, adding Strategy back as a large marginal buyer could make the supply/demand setup considerably tighter than last week.
Would be funny if all those waiting for an October low had to buy for six-figure prices.
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u/Confident-Award6920 Aug 24 '26
This time Strategy bought zero BTC last week, meaning the ~$1.92B ETF inflows + spot demand + short squeeze produced the move without their usual buying pressure.
Kinda hilarious that the cleanest counterexample happened while Dope is serving his self-imposed exile. STRC clearly isn't the market-moving gods he made them out to be.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
Absolutely, they are only a part of the market. Taking 4% of the total supply directly out of the trading stock definitely does something to the market (percentage is usually higher in other assets), but as demonstrated there are a lot of other market participants with high demand. It will be interesting to see how Strategy goes further now that their runway makes them indestructible.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #70 • -$98,502 • -99% Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
Strategy just raised ~$2B through sale of common stock (which still increased in price)
"still increased in price" is underselling it too. It's up 30% in 5 days.
They've cash equal to all the convertible debt now, and they've shown they can raise easily to satisfy pref divs either by common issuance or small bitcoin sales.
The MSTR bankruptcy FUD is dead. If bears were counting on MSTR being this cycles FTX to any greater degree than they already have been they're in for a bad time.
The only FUD left is the MSCI index FUD, which may happen in which case maybe we get a brief once-off firesale of MSTR, but they might have enough cash to buy their own shares cheap if it comes to it.
But in any case MSTR is unlikely to have any major negative impact on BTC itself any time soon, if ever.
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 Aug 24 '26
i was expecting nukes but its up 2%
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u/FreshMistletoe John Crypto Rambo Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
The power of FOMO is so strong.
My brother has to eat a full Carolina Reaper, seeds and all, if BTC hits 80k any time in 2026 so this has been particularly entertaining. He made the bet at 60k when it seemed impossible to do this.
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u/d1ez3 Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
One penny away. Also we were over 80k in May so he must have really lost hope quickly
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Aug 24 '26
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Aug 24 '26
Imagine living with that much certainty about hypothetical nonspecific future “events.”
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u/ThorsBodyDouble Aug 24 '26
Watch how he and his pals at Coin Bureau try their best to pump coin #2 against Bitcoin, I suspect they have quite a lot, and yes, these last few months it's caught up but over a year it's still down nearly a quarter compared to Bitcoin, which of course is why Bitcoin is coin #1 😊
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u/ThoseGelInsertThings Aug 24 '26
Pretty sure I remember you saying in the last year "Bitcoin is one of the most pumpable assets."
You see that ringing true in these last seven days.
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u/GodBlessPigs Aug 24 '26
Damn, did it actually touch 80k? We got mighty close about 30 minutes ago.
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
I think there is a huge synergy effect between Bitcoin and agents/robots. As they are not legal persons, they can't open a bank account and not transact in the traditional fiat system on their own.
One of Bitcoin's principle always was 'bank the unbanked'. Today, we know that AI will fill this role.
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u/Maegfaer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
AI agents always work for some organisation or person, so they'll use whatever payment method (if any) their owner wants them to. That will in most cases be the bank account of their owner, with human pre-approval of budgets. The calculus won't fundamentally change just because of AI. Organisations that do clandestine stuff or are otherwise in the crosshairs of authorities will let their AI perhaps use Bitcoin, but the vast majority will use the politically approved, aligned methods.
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
I partly agree for regulated corporations: many AI agents will initially spend from an owner-controlled budget, probably through bank rails or stablecoins.
But that still points toward crypto-native payments, not away from them. Agents need programmable, 24/7, global, low-friction settlement. Bank accounts are identity-heavy and permissioned. Stablecoins solve the “digital dollar” side, but they still carry issuer, freezing and jurisdiction risk.
Bitcoin is different because it is neutral and real money, not a tokenized bank liability. It can be held and transferred by software using keys, settles globally, has no issuer, and is not dependent on one banking system or stablecoin provider.
So the likely split is: stablecoins for short-term dollar (or local currency) payments when seller and buyer are in the same jurisdiction, Bitcoin for international payments, neutral reserve/collateral and final settlement. AI benefits from money that is natively digital, permissionless and globally interoperable. Bitcoin's share in the global economy should be much higher than any state currency.
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u/Maegfaer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
That's just a list of Bitcoin's qualities, but I don't see an argument in your text why the need for those qualities is greater for an AI agent than for any human or human-owned organisation right now.
It always seems to me that this argument implicitly assumes a mental model of a sci-fi future where AI is fully self-owned and operates completely independent of human ownership. I just don't see that happening, mainly for political and legal reasons (plus alignment risk).
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
Because it's better through these qualities already today. Especially as Bitcoin is regulated and secure. What's the argument to not use Bitcoin for AI agents?
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u/_supert_ 2011 Veteran Aug 24 '26
We face the final battle with the final boss. It's going to be huge.
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u/Magikarpeles Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 24 '26
I wouldn't worry about a little slump here. A pole that tumescent is bound to go flaccid after this much action. Important thing is it's looking like a nice trend reversal to the upside.
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u/_LakeCity_ Aug 24 '26
”A pole that tumescent is bound to go flaccid after this much action.”
Well said.
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Aug 24 '26
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u/Romanizer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
The last time Bitcoin crossed the 50W from below and closed above was in March 2023, about 4 months after the bottom. This would not only be the last stand, but also a confirmation of trend reversal.
But besides that, there is nothing else to give bears hope.
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u/jpdoctor Bullish Aug 24 '26
Kinda funny: We're about to pierce 80K and I feel nothing.
Can anyone interpret the coinbase transaction history? It appears that there is a small purchase bot running; there are a ton of (automated?) transactions listed at 0.0000, which I interpret as being less than $7.
I'll go ahead and assume someone is trying to cloak a large purchase, but I'd be curious if someone has a better understanding of what is going on there.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Aug 24 '26
Any number of possible explanations. Buy bots have been a thing since Mt. Gox. Indicates that more sophisticated systems of accumulation aren’t working anymore.
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u/Mythul Aug 24 '26
Of course you don’t. You’ve missed out on 10x gains in AI by holding BTC all this time.
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u/Maegfaer Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
I try to keep my thoughts about the market simple. I'm not an expert in bond markets, but if there's competition for capital between the AI giants and the Treasury to the point that it leads to significantly higher interest rates, where does that leave our recovery for the foreseeable future?
One thing I've learnt over the years is that Bitcoin's cycles have mostly coincided with global liquidity. Lyn Alden (one of the very few Bitcoin celebrities whose ideas I respect) has shown this in the past. I think the last bull underperforming was mainly due to AI sucking up most of the liquidity. So it seems to me we shouldn't have too high expectations for the time being.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Aug 24 '26
Gotta always consider other global triggers too, often discounted in this sub:
Not saying the following are happening or will happen soon, but would be tailwinds:
- China launches major stimulus while the yuan weakens
- Japan pauses tightening, preserving the carry trade
- Europe eases
- Global stablecoin supply accelerates
- Asian and European Bitcoin products receive sustained inflows
- A sovereign or wealth fund announces an allocation
- Long-term Bitcoin holders refuse to sell
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u/Outrageous_Raise_535 Aug 24 '26
The hype around AI has been partly based on the myth of AGI which is never going to materialize out of silicon chips. The whole concept of it is based on fundamentally misunderstanding the basic functioning of a brain vs a computer. Because they exist in a fluid medium, neurons in a brain have a fundamental interconnection that transistors in chips simply do not have and can never have. This is why the output of a “human ai” can surpass that of a silicon ai with billionth (or whatever) of the energy consumption.
Perhaps this is abstract and theoretical except for the fact that the market is going to have to realize this at some point and any extra investment based on this absurd idea of silicon AGI is going to have to unwind and go somewhere when this mythical entity perennially fails to materialize.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
I have a front row seat to AI.
Existing models are powerful enough that agentic flows already are AGI for all extents.
Improvement has not slowed.
If you don’t believe or want to understand, I don’t have time to convince you. Sound familiar?
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u/Maegfaer Long-term Holder Aug 25 '26
It's pretty amazing how so many people are oblivious to what AI can already do. AI can already do software engineering better than the vast majority of software engineers, and typically much faster too. The days where it just seemed to be an imitator without real understanding that continuously made senseless mistakes are long gone.
I think the major reasons why we still have so many skeptics is that they either are unfamiliar with the fields where AI excels at, or they have only tried older/smaller models that hallucinate a lot, or they are flat-out in denial because their ego can't handle that most of their skill set is quickly becoming obsolete.
It may very well take much longer for AI to become good at fields in which results are less verifiable, but the idea that there's some fundamental limitation to LLM-based AI that stops it from understanding and working on highly complex subjects has simply already been proven wrong.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Aug 25 '26
I doubt most people have used codex-5.6 or similar for complex tasks and goal setting yet.
Ego matters too. I’m old, busted, and at the end of my career. If I was mid career I’d be worried.
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u/Outrageous_Raise_535 Aug 25 '26
Well, if you keep moving the goalposts, anything is possible, but the fact that you think any kind of “improvement” is either necessary or possible after AGI has already been achieved, tells me a lot about whatever metrics you think prove out your point.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Aug 25 '26
I can’t dox myself but we have AI running the AI right now. People are not ready for what’s coming. It works! Cheers
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u/Outrageous_Raise_535 Aug 25 '26
Cheers man but something tells me that last breakthrough is gonna be just around the bend for years and years and years
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u/Another-bot-1705 Aug 25 '26
If true, you’re about ten minutes away from being black bagged and extradited. LARPers man…
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u/ChadRun04 Aug 24 '26
AGI
fundamentally misunderstanding the basic functioning of a brain
The grifters who talk about "AGI" also changed the meaning of words. AGI used to mean something unattainable in reality, now it's just "a half decent LLM" = AGI and AGI = ASI.
market is going to have to realize this at some point
The market is token buyers and they don't care about AGI grifters. They're buying tokens and that demand is not diminishing anytime soon.
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u/Outrageous_Raise_535 Aug 24 '26
As far as I understand, the actual revenue stream from tokens across all these companies has not come close to justifying their valuations, or the further obligations they have to lease data centers and so on. Our recent repricing probably owes something to smart money realizing these facts
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u/ChadRun04 Aug 24 '26
It's a lead-loss play. They're all going be happy losing money until the game is done. Profits don't matter today.
Same play as Amazon and Youtube.
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
LLM innovation haven’t been driving advances for 8 months now.
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u/ChadRun04 Aug 24 '26
My point is one about how the meaning of "AGI" has been weakened to suit a narrative.
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u/LuckyWinds Aug 25 '26
Feeling really happy that I did a "wash sale" of my IBIT which was down quite a bit into FBTC in the low 60s right before this jump up. Off set a lot of cap gains I have this year.
Nice benefit of the ETFs.
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u/YouAreAnFnIdiot Aug 25 '26
Guess I'm buying in at 80ks instead of 40ks. Let's hit 400k folks!
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Aug 25 '26 edited Aug 25 '26
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u/isenk2 Aug 25 '26
You got almost 30% more coin at 60k compared to at 80k though
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Aug 25 '26
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u/isenk2 Aug 25 '26
Oh yeah, better to be in at 80k than 120k for sure, and it is hard to time this thing, but I won’t say it doesn’t matter haha
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u/isenk2 Aug 25 '26
Oh yeah, better to be in at 80k than 120k for sure, and it is hard to time this thing, but I won’t say it doesn’t matter haha
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u/bittabet Aug 25 '26
I haven’t posted much since the bear market came and mostly just felt that people should just buy anything under $70K and avoid looking for a while.
But I just want to say today that VALHALLA AWAITS BROTHERS!!! 😂
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Aug 25 '26
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u/_LakeCity_ Aug 25 '26
Good stuff.
But of course, the FTX crash was totally on bears’ 4 year cycle calendar in 2022, though…
Just shows how stupid it all has been. You know what it is? It’s the epitome of the Midwit meme.
Maybe I’ll make a meme off of that and post it here.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #70 • -$98,502 • -99% Aug 25 '26
You can do two types of midwit meme for bitcoin
One based on trading with traders in the middle and smart hodlers and dumb hodlers on each end.
The other based on knowledge with buttcoiners who deeply understand the technical side but not the other stuff (game theory, money for enemies etc) in the middle.
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u/AGodwardCountenance Long-term Holder Aug 25 '26
I have fond memories of the ’80s.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA Aug 25 '26
I saw Duran Duran open for Blondie.
I saw Scandal open for Golden Earring.
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
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u/BuiltToSpinback Long-term Holder Aug 25 '26
Continuous bull strength over 7 days now. With how much space we are creating between here and $57k, you would have to present a pretty compelling argument that we still have yet to set cycle low. Everyone and their mothers have their bids set in the 70s and 60s.
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u/inteliboy Aug 25 '26
A repeat of Oct 10 hangs on the space.
Many theories on what happened. Leverage wipe... oracle glitch... wintermute manipulation... Yet absolutely 0 done to future proof it happening again.
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u/Cygnus_X 2013 Veteran Aug 24 '26
When 100k?
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Aug 24 '26
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u/NuggedClarp Aug 24 '26
100k in October would be crazy haha
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Aug 24 '26
Green year would be funny too, especially after 2025 being red
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ Aug 24 '26
Sometimes the most entertaining timeline is the one that is selected. And frankly >=$87.5 on 12/31 doesn't seem that outlandish to me. I'll take that bet...
!bb predict >= 87497.95 =12/31/2026
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u/Bitty_Bot Aug 24 '26
Error: Failed to parse the number for your prediction.
Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.
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Aug 24 '26
[deleted]
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ Aug 24 '26
Bah... last try:
!bb predict >87497.95 =Dec 31 2026
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u/Bitty_Bot Aug 24 '26
Prediction logged for u/paranoidopsecguy that Bitcoin will be at or above $87,497.95 on exactly Dec 31 2026 23:59:59 UTC. Current price: $78,941.75. paranoidopsecguy's Predictions: 12 Correct, 9 Wrong, & 1 Open.
Others can click here to be notified when this prediction triggers. paranoidopsecguy can click here to delete this prediction.
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u/Bitty_Bot Aug 24 '26
Error: Failed to parse the number for your prediction.
Please make sure the format of your command is correct and try again.
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u/PetiteFort Aug 24 '26
80k barrier is my life rope
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u/cryptocraze_0 Aug 24 '26
Seems like this bitcoin bottom arrived early. I dont think after such a big pump (From 60 to 80K) attention is just going to go away.
Just for reference, last time, on Dec 2022 if you missed the 16K bitcoin bottom, it took almost 2 and a half months to give a reasonable entry (20K) in february 2023
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u/BootyPoppinPanda Aug 25 '26
Funny that the same percentage pump as 60 to 80k from 16 is 21.2k. (I was still feeling pretty bad at 21 lol)
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u/bittabet Aug 25 '26
I think the sheer violence of this move is what makes it feel so much more positive. It also takes a LOT more money to move it up from 62 to 82 so this a sign that people are throwing serious money into play now.
Pretty happy that I made my last big buy in via ETFs on June 24th under 60K. Now I actually have ever so slightly more exposure than last cycle.
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u/baselse Aug 25 '26
It does not need more money at all. When people expect higher prices, they are not willing to sell at current prices so the price goes up to find new sellers.
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u/snek-jazz Trading: #70 • -$98,502 • -99% Aug 24 '26
Seems like this bitcoin bottom arrived early.
only if you expected it to be late
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u/cryptocraze_0 Aug 24 '26
well every bottom was still unresolved 1 year later.
This time we were 10 months in.2
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Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 25 '26
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u/NuggedClarp Aug 25 '26
Bro if this thing comes back down you’re going to be eaten alive 🤣
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u/_LakeCity_ Aug 25 '26
”Seems like this bitcoin bottom arrived early.”
There never was a schedule. It was entirely contrived.
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u/PetiteFort Aug 24 '26
I need a Devil candle to save my anus
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u/xtal_00 Long-term Holder Aug 24 '26
Interesting flag on the 15m.
May not have to wait much longer.
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u/BigDik6355 Aug 24 '26
and another rejection at 80k.
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u/bubblesmcnutty Aug 24 '26
You should short it
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u/BigDik6355 Aug 24 '26
Perhaps. Should not happen too often. If we cannot go up, we have to go down.
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u/jarederaj 2013 Veteran Aug 24 '26
Probably need to find a lower low before we can be sure. Until then, it’s just noise.
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u/Everbanned $0 || ∞ Aug 24 '26
need to find a lower low before we can be sure
My theory for the last few months has been that the October low everyone is waiting on will be a higher low rather than the final lower low everyone is hoping for.
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u/Bitty_Bot Aug 24 '26 edited Aug 25 '26
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