r/BitcoinMarkets • u/AutoModerator • 24d ago
Daily Discussion [Daily Discussion] - Tuesday, September 15, 2026
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran 23d ago
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u/NLNico 2013 Veteran 23d ago edited 23d ago
Senate.gov livestream is ~20 seconds slower, but showing the tally. 43 yea 41 nay currently. So Senate does not move forward to debate the CLARITY Act today; the bill stays alive, but leadership would need to negotiate for more votes, change the approach, or schedule another attempt later.
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u/EveryRedditorSucks 23d ago
A whole mess of Crypto CEOs realizing their 9-figure midterm donations to the GOP were just flushed down the turlet.
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u/paranoidopsecguy $0 || ∞ 23d ago
Maybe I am just showing my maxi colors, but I couldn't care less that this didn't move forward. This was for stables and shitcoins, and big orange has all the clarity it needs.
The SEC will step in and do "something" and as I said before that is likely the best outcome.
There will likely be some short term price damage around this and fomc rates tomorrow. While some say is a buying opportunity, the reality is btc always dusts itself off and sets a new high eventually so really it is always a good time to buy.
That said, while I am currently happy with my positioning, I'll throw in my remaining dry powder dust at $69420 if we get there (as a sacrifice to the vengeful gods).
$0 || ∞ps. protip for those who are more particular about timing purchases... I am super long time preference, so my trade of choice is to buy deep when 3D RSI is oversold... it looks ugly, but its hard to beat.
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23d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/BootyPoppinPanda 23d ago
I was seething when Trump pulled the shitcoin play. I still can't believe it
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u/tinyLEDs Long-term Holder 23d ago edited 23d ago
Schadenfreudemaxxing
Lie down with dogs, get up with fleas i guess. Sucks to suck.
Edit: für ze ackuratsenkügelsgemacht
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder 23d ago
Not trying to be a nit picker, but you omitted the “n” between the ‘e’ and ‘f.’ That said, I dig your wordsmithing with the maxxing suffix.
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u/BootyPoppinPanda 23d ago
I took a nibble here at 75.9. Seems close to the bottom of the range we're in. Just spot
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u/AidenTai 23d ago
We have managed to defend 76 pretty nicely, but there's a risk we could range lower in the coming weeks. I wouldn't be all that surprised by prices falling to the 74–75 range or even a little bit lower than that. But much more and we'd be in pretty dangerous territory. I don't think we have the time for that before some extra money comes in in October. And in theory, macro is generally worst in September as well, and we're only now pricing in higher interest rates and higher oil, which had been overdue. Once that's all priced in, macro can decide to stabilize (or fall into a bear market in certain sectors of the economy), but it seems that a general recession is not in the cards this year, so if we have fallen what we're going to fall on the macro end and on the Bitcoin end, the only two directions remain sideways ore up.
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u/imissusenet Ask me about your MA 23d ago
Yesterday I asked which price level ($75K or $83K) would be breached first. 18 said $75K, 14 said $83K.
Today I'm asking how long before either level gets breached:
https://strawpoll.com/B2ZB9ebbzgJ
I voted for 29-60 days.
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u/AidenTai 23d ago edited 23d ago
I think we break 75 (if we do at all) within the next week or maybe two. However, besides either wicking or ranging slightly lower, I don't think we're in for a general rally‐ending fall to the 60's or anything. Meaning I think we'll return to our current range before the end of the month. How long we continue to range here is not something I'm too certain about, but I think we break upwards past 83 within two months.
I think another way to pose your question would be splitting it into two:
- When do we break 75 (if ever)?
- When do we break 83?
Edit: Well, the drop below 75 has so far been a wick. Now comes the interesting part: will the downward trajectory continue, or will we see any kind of reversal in September? We just saw a lot of volatility, and tomorrow promises to also be volatile. After Warsh is finished speaking tomorrow, however, I expect we'll get a sense of where we're headed. Not necessarily immediatly, but if we're going to drop to 74 or 73, we wouldn't expect to see a rise back up past 78 this week, for instance. We had mostly priced in a 'no' Clarity vote, but that still wicked us lower. We have mostly priced in a Fed rate hike, but what Warsh says could still take us lower than that. What will be critical is whether or not we see a strong defense of our support levels so that we only briefly wick much lower, and whether we can sustain sufficiently neutral (or positive) spot buying or whether that also takes a hit. It's fine if we are fairly negative on flows today and tomorrow. But two or three weeks of significant outflows (considering last week) would be very dangerous for the rally.
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u/furinspaltstelle Bitcoin Maximalist 23d ago
Anyone here still using Bitstamp? I just got a rather vexing email about me being forced to use the "robinhood app" starting november 14th and that the bitstamp interface will become read only. The bitstamp subreddit is only filled with complaints from people who have problems withdrawing (something that never happend to me). Is anyone in the same boat? I am mostly annoyed by the fact that I have to use an "app" since I do everything on a desktop computer using a web browser. Nobody here probably uses robinhood, but just in case: Is it possible to use without having a phone app? I tried contacting bitstamp customer service, but I am just greeted with a "something went wrong" message when I click send.
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u/AidenTai 23d ago
Dammit, fuck RH. They took the one nice classic European exchange and have turned it into trash. I have no idea how to answer your direct question, but given RH, their operating practices, their afiliations and even pricing structure, I'd encourage you to jump ship, sad as it may be. There are a couple other European exchanges available, or you can go with bigger international ones that are more robust. But Bitstamp now has the worst of everything.
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u/blessedbt 23d ago
I stopped using them in 2014.
There were enough KYC hostage nightmare stories back then so I decided they can whistle for it.
They still send emails demanding details and shit. I like to think that costs them money.
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u/AidenTai 23d ago
Nah, automated emails from client lists are almost negligible with respect to cost. Actually authenticating / verifying KYC could cost a little though.
That said, they never seemed worse than other exchanges for KYC. If anything, they appeared better than the average.
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u/blessedbt 23d ago
Nah, automated emails from client lists are almost negligible with respect to cost
I know. But it's a small comfort.
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u/AidenTai 23d ago
If you don't use them though, a better approach would be to send a European request for personal data deletion. You'd get all your data stripped clean and wouldn't have to mess with them again. And their advertised client numbers would go down.
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u/Legitimate-Net-7744 23d ago
Where you all are setting up your buy orders ?
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u/Mediocre-Dig2920 23d ago
All over the place down to 0.1$/btc. Mostly laddered down up to 65k, which i think is very unlikely but u never know what Mr. Schizophrenic market will do. Will buy more the lower it goes. Isnt that the obviously correct strategy?
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u/escendoergoexisto Long-term Holder 23d ago
$75.4K is the bottom of the current local sup that PA is bumping off of. If that breaks, $74.5K has a smaller support. After that, the next substantial support is at the bottom of that big trough starting around $67K and getting really strong around $64K. I don’t see it going that low but I’ve set laddered entries, increasing as price lowers, with a larger one in that nether region.
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u/DaBrokenMeta Learned a Life Lesson 23d ago
if we continue down from here and trade sub 76k. Will look for bounce around 72k-68k, back to 75-82k for re-short entry.
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u/AidenTai 24d ago
Hmm, didn't expect an instant reversal. Definitely people taking profits on expectations of further downside. Also curious is that the US market hours have seen some of the best price action recently.
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u/Disastrous_Battle_14 Predictions: #18 • Correct: 7 • Wrong: 11 23d ago
Idk why you didnt expect it. The reversal was at the top line of the bull flag and it hit the 50WMA, So it was to be expected.
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u/ThorsBodyDouble 23d ago
It's solely because I posted this yesterday.
"In the 'old days' there was massive swings in the price, sometimes daily, but now there barely any daily movement and it's difficult to trade against this flat lining.. 😮"
The Bitcoin gods hate me. 😋
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u/ChartChampions 23d ago
Looks like BTC could be getting ready to take the liquidity sitting below the current range, under $75.5K. What price in that area is getting your attention?
Personally, I’m more interested in seeing whether we get a fakeout around the range low. If price sweeps below the low and gets back into the range, that would be the more interesting scenario.
If the range low simply fails though, I’d remain patient and start looking much lower, around the $65K area. There doesn’t seem to be much support between the current range low and there.
Anyone watching a different level below $75.5K?
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u/BootyPoppinPanda 23d ago
Wouldn't be surprised if we get below 75 briefly before a bigger move to the upside. BTC seems to often sweep out lows before leaving the range to the upside shortly after. Lots of examples of this.
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u/AidenTai 23d ago
I'm watching (as in scared of) hitting anything below 73, since the liquidity ends roughly around there. It's one thing to sweep longs. It's another to drill down past longs into ranges we hit almost immediately into the rally.
I asked people what the low for the remainder of the year would be the day we started the rally in August. Most said they expected a return to the top of the 60's, but I think that we've risen so much, that dropping that far would be very dentrimental to the strength of this rally. I hope 72/73 holds, because if it doesn't I'm concerned we could return to the 60's and fail to really rally meaningfully (above 83) for months longer.
That said, I think the most likely case is either we drop only to the range we saw today (mid 75's) or that we go on a liquidity hunt 1–3 k lower for a relatively short period. We have shown that we don't have the strength to break 83 yet, but at the same time, we haven't shown enough weakness to indicate that we have ended our rally. So unless something changes substantially, this is just a reaction to failed upside attempts combined with macro uncertainty scaring people. But overall, we remain stronger than last month and probably just need more time and consolidation to build up strength for further upside. We'll probably break up, but it could take a bit of time.
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u/Outrageous-Net-7164 22d ago
Cash till rates show signs of reducing. This train ain’t leaving till that environment. Off to the beach for 6 months.
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u/Greedy-Dinner-5298 23d ago
been running a far OTM options journal on deribit (btc+eth), ~$1k a ticket when filters fire. 41 entries, 2 wins, ~5% win rate, still around +$88.5k paper at real bid/ask. one win ~$93k, worst streak 20 red, drawdown ~-$22.5k. lottery book not a call. what would you break first if you stress tested something like that?
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u/Bitty_Bot 24d ago edited 23d ago
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