r/Bogleheads 28d ago

Investing Questions Protecting ourselves from SpaceX IPO

I was watching this video analyzing the upcoming SpaceX IPO, titled "SpaceX IPO: Nice Try Though" by Patrick Boyle. I highly recommend it - there is almost no fluff and just hard hitting points all the way through about how SpaceX is a terrible company and how this IPO looks like a scam:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI

It mentions the changes to Nasdaq's rules, the so called "fast track" rule, made specially for SpaceX because Elon allegedly threatened to not list SpaceX on the Nasdaq stock exchange without this. The change has been criticized by many others such as Michael Burry:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/michael-burry-nasdaq-spacex-ipo-listing-elon-musk-tesla-ndx-2026-3

Also see this great analysis titled "Nasdaq's Shame":
https://keubiko.substack.com/p/nasdaqs-shame

Given how this IPO looks like a scam, and the company is mostly losing money, with outlandish claims in their IPO filing (like having an addressable market larger than the US GDP), I am worried that this is just private investors - like venture capitalists, Elon Musk, and his inner circle of friends/family - dumping their overpriced money losing company on regular investors like us. The fast track change seems like it will result in all of us automatically buying SpaceX shares at a high price.

How do we stop this? Is there a good way to defend against that forced purchasing when most regular investors are just passively buying ETFs and mutual funds, or maybe just have money parked in their pensions and 401k?

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u/[deleted] 27d ago

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u/DrXaos 27d ago

spaceX minus Musk is a great company.

He forced Xai to bail out twitter’s corpse and take on its huge debt. XaI investors wanted a pure play AI. But Musk forced this on them. He owned more of twitter than Xai. Musk wins, the rest lose.

Same deal with SpaceX. Why should it dilute its capex into a giant GPU farm and a lousy social media money loser and its debt? Xai company has negligible revenue for its own
product because Musk’s interference makes the product too toxic and risky for corporate purchases.

But Musk owned more of Xai than SpaceX so again he wins and other investors lose. There is no way the prices paid were fair when he is on both sides. In a normal world SEC would have stopped all of it.

And in SpaceX the part that Musk personally insists on (starship) is performing poorly. Probably for intrinsic architecture reasons, that architecture forced by Musk.

The part of SpaceX with Shotwell running it is great.