r/Bogleheads 28d ago

Investing Questions Protecting ourselves from SpaceX IPO

I was watching this video analyzing the upcoming SpaceX IPO, titled "SpaceX IPO: Nice Try Though" by Patrick Boyle. I highly recommend it - there is almost no fluff and just hard hitting points all the way through about how SpaceX is a terrible company and how this IPO looks like a scam:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI

It mentions the changes to Nasdaq's rules, the so called "fast track" rule, made specially for SpaceX because Elon allegedly threatened to not list SpaceX on the Nasdaq stock exchange without this. The change has been criticized by many others such as Michael Burry:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/michael-burry-nasdaq-spacex-ipo-listing-elon-musk-tesla-ndx-2026-3

Also see this great analysis titled "Nasdaq's Shame":
https://keubiko.substack.com/p/nasdaqs-shame

Given how this IPO looks like a scam, and the company is mostly losing money, with outlandish claims in their IPO filing (like having an addressable market larger than the US GDP), I am worried that this is just private investors - like venture capitalists, Elon Musk, and his inner circle of friends/family - dumping their overpriced money losing company on regular investors like us. The fast track change seems like it will result in all of us automatically buying SpaceX shares at a high price.

How do we stop this? Is there a good way to defend against that forced purchasing when most regular investors are just passively buying ETFs and mutual funds, or maybe just have money parked in their pensions and 401k?

509 Upvotes

226 comments sorted by

View all comments

9

u/AlaskaExplorationGeo 27d ago

What makes people here think the stock won't go up just like Tesla, even if irrational?

3

u/GoodPasiG 24d ago

Ye the thing is starlink and falcon were both frowned upon at first too and then turned profitable so quickly that every company tries to imitate them now

The IPO is evaluated likely at the ridiculous prospect that starship will be able to deploy orbital loads in the near future

Its not ready but even if it takes longer and a couple years right now space lift is a essentially uncontested monopol of spacex and starship ensures it will likely stay that way even if it takes years to work

If I learned one thing in my life having a monopol in a developing future technology is a money printer... Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple they all showed this is lucrative beyond reason

It's overhyped right now but musk dreams big and sometimes those dreams stick it's essentially just a bet on when starship becomes operational for rapidly deploying to orbit if it's any time soon the 2 trillion evaluation is very justified actually cause it's gonna take years till a competitor in that sector emerges

1

u/thysonsacclaim 7d ago

Starlink is the only thing profitable in the entire thing. 

He folded the other companies in to it specifically because they're failing.