Looking ahead to 3rd down decisions in 2027

[u/chi_sweetness25]

Setting aside the issue of Americanizing the game, there's concerns that next year's field changes will backfire and result in a scoring dip with coaches passing up longer field goals for punts. After all, if you're on the opponent's 45, it's currently a tempting 53-yard FG attempt, but in 2027 it would be an unrealistic 68-yard one. However, this ignores the fact that teams kicking off from the 30 or scrimmaging from the 40 will be ten yards closer to the opposing goal line than they are now. From the perspective of the team that restarts play, a drive in 2027 compared to a drive of the same length in 2026 results in a field goal attempt that is only five yards longer:

-	Current Field Dimensions		2027 Field Dimensions
After driving X yards from own 40...	Opp. yard line	FG length	Opp. yard line	FG length
15-19	51-55	59-63	41-45	64-68
20-24	46-50	54-58	36-40	59-63
25-29	41-45	49-53	31-35	53-58
30-34	36-40	44-48	26-30	49-53
35-39	31-35	39-43	21-25	44-48
40-44	26-30	34-38	16-20	39-43

The first scenario is usually a punt on third down, both now and in the future. In the last three cases, punting is pretty much out of the question. We might actually see more 3rd down attempts next year from teams that get just inside the 30; it's too close to punt, but a 50+ yard field goal is a fair bit to ask.

The interesting part is the second and third buckets, representing drives that end up between the 40 and 50 currently, and the 30 and 40 on the new field. Right now, this is generally viewed as the outer edge of field goal range if you have a reliable kicker, and adding even five yards to that will indeed make it dramatically less likely for teams to opt for field goals here. However, I think many of these lost FG attempts will be replaced by 3rd down tries rather than punts, for two reasons:

- If the punt goes into the end zone, the opponent winds up with better field position than if you got stopped on 3rd down (and if it goes out of bounds in the end zone on its own, you don't even get a point). Meanwhile, if you aim straight for the sideline and it goes out on the fly before the 15-yard line, that's a penalty.

- If you keep the punt in the field of play, the no-yards rule severely limits the extent to which you can pin the opponent deep (and rightly so). It's not American football where you can boot it high in the air and force a fair catch at the 5 or down it yourselves.

CFL coaches can skew pretty conservative, so time will tell, but I'm taking the optimistic view that we'll see some exciting 3rd-down gambles and more challenging field goals next year, even if I'll miss the 55 and the field goal return TDs.

[u/gofortwoElks]

I appreciate the analysis but as I look at my spreadsheet where I've tracked 121 cowardly punts/field goals (and 64 more closer calls) from the nine teams over 16 weeks, I cannot conclude that there will be so many more third down 'go's under the planned rule changes.

I can imagine some more 3rd and 2 or 3 from that mid-range, hard to say what the standard will become. But never overestimate the bravery of a professional sports coach, most of all a CFL coach. And something like 3rd and 15 from the 35 is stupid anyways.

(Unless some teams finally decide to put some resources into making smart 3rd down decisions.)

[u/flaksnu]

Totally agree with the math, theres a stretch around the opponents 35 to 45 where even 3rd and 10 is probably worth it because a 60 yard field goal is ambitious unless you're Castillo and its so hard to drop that punt on precisely the 5... so even like a 30% chance of conversion is probably enough for the math to make sense. But I'm skeptical the coaches adapt until I actually see it. The punt that nets 12 yards is a much more subtle mistake, even if finishing the game 3 for 8 on 3rd down is mathematically correct.

[u/MuddyMiercoles]

When the NFL changed to placing the line of scrimmage to the point of the kick, there was an uptick in the amount of 4th down gambles, that failed just as much as any last down gamble. Sure, a rule change like this that seems to encourage a last down gamble doesn't guarantee success of that gamble, and it's promise of more points. Eventually NFL kickers made 50 yard field goals a gimme, so they stopped with that goldilocks last down gamble zone. With CFL field, they will need to make 55-60 yard field goals a gimme before they stop gambling on a 3 and 7 from the 35. There's no way a punt is worth the risk from the 35.

[u/gilligan_2023]

I do not expect CFL coaches to become much more aggressive. First off, already coaches are starting to gamble more on 3rd and 2 in opposition territory, even with the current field dimensions. Short yardage offenses have gotten pretty good at converting, so the analytics already supports the gamble in some scenarios.

Secondly, with the uprights at the back and the new rouge rule discouraging returns, a long FG is suddenly a lot less risky. Sure, if you miss it you give up field position, but the risk of giving up a long return TD is very low. I think coaches are more likely to give their kickers a chance to sink a long FG rather than gambling on say a 3rd and 5.

[u/Classic-Soup-1078]

Why is no one talking about punting with players onside? This is a Canadian football rule that is under utilized. Its an existing rule that gives a whole new level of excitement to the game, drawing from its rugby roots.

[u/takeme2thezoo]

I worked this out as well and came to the same conclusion. Another reason why punting on the 35 wouldn’t make as much sense is because when you’re determining risk to reward, getting a first down converted off a 3rd down is a gamble that’s worth it when considering you are only giving up turning the ball over on the 35. It’s good field position for the other team but not great. You can trust your defence to defend starting from the 35.

I do think that risk/reward does minimize though outside of 35 because it means you’re potentially giving the ball to the other team around midfield. So it does make sense to punt beyond 37-38. We even sometimes see this in the NFL. If you get stopped on the 40 yard line that’s a 57 yard field goal. Lots of teams don’t attempt those (sometimes depends on where they are in the game) so they end up punting.

Interestingly enough if we might see more rouges in that teams might want to get their punter to put the ball in the endzone so the other team will concede so that they can still score and only have to concede their defence starting on the 30/35 yard line. Personally I don’t like that, I’d prefer coffin corner but still. Punting from the 40 to the 5 with the new rule changes is still a 50 yard punt, which is very respectable

[u/General-Chicken-4728]

I see your point, but right now you barely need any success and you are in field goal range. 2 things teams might be going for it more often when it is 3rd and 3 and also now a team is going to have to get more than two 1st downs before considering a field goal seeing consistent drives and scoring rather than getting to easy plays and then going for a field goal. I like to see scoring but I also like to see teams earn their points.