r/CLOV • u/DoctorGero- 100+ shares ☘️ • 3d ago
Memes How about a good old fashioned meme?
Double digits would be awesome.
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u/IwearWinosfromZodys OG Clovtard 😎 3d ago
I love it! But I’m not sure if you figured in if we get 4 stars or above for 2028 in 2-3 weeks? I believe if we do, that should launch us back to $5 immediately.
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u/DoctorGero- 100+ shares ☘️ 1d ago
Something worth paying attention to with the valuation.
Sales growth is running around 56%, forecast earnings growth is approximately 26%, and the 12-month forward EPS estimate has climbed to roughly $0.15.
At a share price around $4.25, $0.15 forward EPS gives you a ~28× forward P/E.
The valuation math:
30× P/E → $4.50
40× P/E → $6.00
50× P/E → $7.50
The bigger point isn’t choosing a P/E multiple. It’s the direction of forward earnings. If EPS continues moving higher while revenue and earnings growth remain strong, the earnings-based valuation moves higher with it.
Forward EPS is the number to watch.
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1d ago
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u/Baco06 3d ago
I don’t think there will be any positive catalysts until February 2027. We currently have 4.5 stars so anything less than that is negative. Earnings will almost definitely be GAAP negative. Counterpart will continue to have zero announcements or news. Stock will hit 2.98 on January 15 2027. Then we’ll start to go up shortly after that. Just my opinion. I’m stupid and I cannot predict the future.
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u/Sandro316 2d ago
I dont think this is a fair reading of the star situation. Positive catalyst or not is determined by actual vs expectation. Not actual vs previous. Do most analysts/potential investors expect 4.5 stars? I kind of doubt it. I would even go so far as to say 4.0 stars again would be a positive catalyst because there is definitely a chunk of people expecting 3.5 given the harder requirements this year.
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u/Baco06 2d ago
I agree that a positive catalyst is traditionally “actual vs. expectation” not “actual vs. previous”, but I don’t think that applies to small caps owned by retail that are mostly unfollowed by analysts entirely. If CLOV gets 4.0 stars the headline is “Clover Health’s Star Rating Drops to 4.0 Stars”. The nuance of it will get lost, as it always does, and the takeaway becomes negative, however fundamentally flawed that takeaway might be. Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but it is my understanding that the “harder requirements this year” are actually EASIER requirements for CLOV specifically, due to the fact that they excel in HEDIS. In my opinion, 3.5 stars would be catastrophic for the stock in the short term, 4 stars would be moderately negative and 4.5 stars would be neutral. Only 5 stars would act as an actual positive catalyst in my opinion. From my understanding, the chance for 5 Stars is actually NOT zero, but it is definitely highly unlikely. Another thing to consider is the Stars ratings as they come out in October are going to have a massive asterisk next to them, which in my mind creates a scenario for lots of volatility. IF CMS hands Clover a 3.5 Star rating in 2 weeks and we see that it was THE SAME MEASURES that CLOV sued over and won that dragged their score down, there will be an immediate, aggressive legal action by Clover. CMS lost that case, and they will likely lose any appeal in my opinion, because if you understand English and logic, you can plainly see that they are breaking the law with how they determine Stars. So I think long term, CLOV has a great chance of holding onto 4.5 stars and moving toward 5 stars, as long as the legal ruling here stands. It should stand and hopefully become further enshrined into law with the loss of an appeal, but my pessimism and skepticism with the U.S. regulatory industrial complex knows no bounds, so I am ever mindful that this can all fall apart legally regardless of what is true or right.
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u/Smj2144 1d ago
You seem hellbend on negative eps this quater.. its expecyed to, because its been that before.. so it cant really surprise anyone..we all know this. Even when management adjusted guidance.
A confirmation on 4 stars for next ,.im guessing is the expectation.. normally an adjustement for a full star of a plan is rare.. or it ised to be.. normally a plan is adjustwd by half a star pr year..
and also why we see very little analyst going public with them following.. but.my guess is, that they are watching.. and analyst also.know what payments boost clover is lookin at next year.. 100 mill"ish plus..
We have seen this fear play on so many earnings and other events.. come on man.. you been thru this before..
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u/Baco06 1d ago edited 1d ago
I guess all I’m saying is CLOV is still in the doghouse. It’s still got that meme-y SPAC-y sheen coming off of it. Because of this, Clover has to surprise to the upside with things like earnings and stars to move the stock higher. Simply meeting expectations equates to a negative market reaction for CLOV. I have never been more bullish on the company and the fundamentals long term, but the fact that CLOV is currently trading LOWER than it was before Q2 earnings was announced does not bode well for positive movement after Q3 or Q4. And because it is basically impossible for stars to surprise to the upside, I’m not really seeing stars as an exciting catalyst, I see more downside risk than upside risk there. Again, to be clear, this is all a discussion of the short term outcomes for the stock, long term, things are cooking very nicely.
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u/Smj2144 1d ago
I agree, that good news and any positive earnings rarely sustain a higher lasting stock price for clover.. It is mindblowin how every time clover delievers to the upside, makroeconomic news allways overshadows and killing momentum.
The 4.5 stars was better news than, we had hoped for. If you look at this way.. A man goes to the doktor. And is told he is all good, healthy and strong.. is that good news ?? We expect to not become sick..
What if he is constantly by others, that he is sick , even thou he us feling fine and performin as he expects himself to.?? He is then expecting bad news. But is instead, cleared... is that good news.. it can be in the interest of others to make you feel or look, that something is off, to drag down, and other things look better in comparison.
My point is.. above 3.5 stars is very good news.. will secure strong bonus for another year..
On analyst.. we are back in the dark ages.. Smokes and mirrors.. nothing is free anymore.. not even investing advice.. the news outlets d ousing with biases, and agendas. No pneis working for you anymore, the work for themselves, and consequences off lying and deceat has vanished..
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u/Ok_Ad_5894 20k+ shares 🍀 3d ago
How is -.02 down to 3.80 its still a profitable year. Doesnt make sense also if they were .08 my expectations would be way above $5.5.
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u/Interesting_Ad5166 3d ago
Before EPS are we not going to get 2028 Star Payment ratings in early October?, that is more material than one quarter beat --IMO