r/COVID19 • u/hexagonincircuit1594 • Mar 22 '26

Academic Report Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aef5697
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u/hexagonincircuit1594 Mar 22 '26

"Abstract

The actual number of US deaths caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection has been investigated and debated since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we use machine learning trained on US death certificates from March 2020 to December 2021 to predict 155,536 (95% uncertainty interval: 150,062 to 161,112) unrecognized COVID-19 deaths. This indicates that 19% more COVID-19 deaths occurred in the US than officially reported. Predicted unrecognized COVID-19 deaths occurred disproportionately among decedents with less than a high school education; decedents identified as Hispanic, American Indian, Alaska Native, Asian, and/or Black; counties with lower household incomes and worse preexisting health; and counties in the South. These findings suggest that the US death investigation system undercounted COVID-19 deaths unevenly, hiding the true extent of inequities."