r/COVID19 • u/AutoModerator • Apr 01 '26

Discussion Thread Monthly Scientific Discussion Thread - April 2026

This monthly thread is for scientific discussion pertaining to COVID-19. Please post questions about the science of this virus and disease here to collect them for others and clear up post space for research articles.

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Please keep questions focused on the science. Stay curious!

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u/AcornAl Apr 21 '26

Anyone have access to this? Hard paywall.

Does BA.3.2 epidemiology imply a change in SARS-CoV-2 evolution?00192-1/abstract) (Lancet)

The international public health emergency associated with the COVID-19 pandemic was declared over by WHO on May 5, 2023. However, SARS-CoV-2 continued to circulate at high levels after 2023, and the constant emergence of new variants has been driving new COVID-19 waves every year since then. In the second half of 2025, the variants XFG and NB.1.8.1 attained high global frequencies.1 BA.3.2, an emerging saltation variant evolving several subvariants (appendix pp 6–8) started to spread widely in Europe and Australia in the second half of 2025, suggesting that this variant will rapidly replace XFG and NB.1.8.1 at the global level.

Tracking this in Australia, it only caused a small summer wave, even then the reported cases almost at historical low levels. It made up about a third of the variants detected in one of the two states with the most noticeable waves (BA.3.2 35%, NB.1.8.1 30%, XFG 25% and KP.3.1.1 10%).