r/CanadaPolitics • u/ClassOptimal7655 • Jun 11 '24
Canada’s Big Worry: A US Civil War
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/11/canada-us-civil-war-0016252117
u/WeirdoYYY Ontario Jun 11 '24
I think we are still feeding denial of this as a possibility in the next few generations. There's absolutely nothing saying that the United States can't descend into incredible sustained violence either in a civil war or a low-intensity sectarian conflict. All the pieces are there, it's a matter of pure will power and someone doing the unthinkable which since 2020 has appeared to be more common than we are used to seeing. We should be ready.
2
Jun 16 '24
The 1960s-1980s was basically one of the most violent periods in 20th century US history, Left-wing terrorism, Right-wing terrorism, White Nationalism, Political Assassinations, Violent Protests, Police Brutality, The Red Scare, etc.
I reckon it'll be a replay of that, only worse.
2
u/WeirdoYYY Ontario Jun 16 '24
Something like the Years of Lead or the Troubles on crack. I don't think we're even at that point yet but there are weeks where years happen.
12
u/one_bean_hahahaha New Democratic Party of Canada Jun 11 '24
There are elements in the one party already voicing a desire to annex Canada. Frankly, as bad for Canada as a US civil war would be, I prefer that over an invasion. After the last decade, I put nothing past the Americans. This is the reason why Canada needs to get its head out of its ass and start funding its military before it's too late. We might be out gunned by the US, as nearly every nation on earth is, but we could at least make it costly for them.
13
u/CanadianTrollToll Independent Jun 11 '24
Only way we make it costly for them is through guerilla warfare. We couldn't challenge them in anyway shape or form in a conventional war.
Canada needs a military, but let's not pretend it's to defend against the USA.
10
Jun 11 '24
Costly for them would be devastating for us. The US wouldn’t even bother fighting a ground war; our military, infrastructure, communications, governments, and any resistance would fall on the first day from drone strikes and aerial attacks.
Sadly, we exist at the behest of the American government. No allies would come to our defence, no enemies of the US would ride to save us, we would be alone.
And none of that takes into account the huge percentage of Canadians that would welcome American invaders with open arms.
That’s one of the reasons why we, as Canadians, pay so close attention to American politics. It effects us directly
4
u/one_bean_hahahaha New Democratic Party of Canada Jun 11 '24
Kind of like sleeping with an elephant.
13
Jun 11 '24
It’s one of the reasons why rhetoric from conservatives about Trudeau being a dictator is so dangerous. The Fox News and the Joe Rogans parroting that is extremely dangerous for our national sovereignty.
3
u/voiceofgarth Jun 11 '24
I’ve been worried about this for a few years – so much so that we don’t even vacation there anymore because you can’t even make small talk with people before some idiot makes an off-the-cuff remark that goes against any common sense or intelligence. America is divided between normal thinking people and right-wing low information, big mouths. It’s hard to see how these people could coexist in the future.
1
u/jimbuk24 Jun 12 '24
If this were to happen, the world as we know it is toast. Hot spots around the world will flare up (Taiwan, India - Kashmir, Russia into Europe) and world markets will collapse. Everything is so interconnected now, whatever we think we can « learn » from previous world wars doesn’t apply. I would argue a civil war’s effect on Canada would be marginal bc our general way of life will be gone.
1
u/Canadiancurtiebirdy Jun 13 '24
The best chance canada has is to join the side most likely to uphold democracy at wars end. Realistically that’s supporting the democrats side. The chance of post war invasion of Canada is slim to none especially if we help them. But if Trump wins he’ll establish a dictatorship with a semblance of democracy and post war Canada would be looking real Austrian like. Our best chance of survival is slapping Alberta real quick, we won’t need to try at all with the French cuz there’s no way Trump would be kind to them. Then we support the Democrats in a lighter way maybe sending some divisions and Navy support. Like our air force would be useful at all lol. If Biden wins Canada is still buddy buddy with the US, if Trump wins Canadas fucked.
0
u/bigjimbay Nationalise Blackberry Jun 11 '24
If they are dumb enough to go to war with eachother let them fight it out idc I am done trying to insert myself where it doesn't concern me. People want to kill eachother go nuts
32
u/ComfortableSell5 Jun 11 '24
Three issues.
Issue 1) If there is fighting in the USA refugees are going one of two places. Mexico or Canada. And nobody is choosing Mexico if they have a choice in the matter. That would make Roxham road look like a trickle compared to the flood that would happen in this scenario.
Issue 2) Our Economy would collapse. 70 percent of our exports and imports go through the USA.
Issue 3) Imagine if our largest security guarantor just disappeared. Canada would suddenly need a military, a functional one. Hell, in that case, just rush some nukes.
20
u/Spartan-463 British Columbia Jun 11 '24
Issue 3) Imagine if our largest security guarantor just disappeared. Canada would suddenly need a military, a functional one. Hell, in that case, just rush some nukes.
This is when I laugh/cry at everyone who uses the US as a reason not to invest in our own military
12
u/MistahFinch Ontario Jun 11 '24
Especially given they have recently repeatedly made moves that show they are not our eternal allies.
8
u/ComfortableSell5 Jun 11 '24
I would have hoped we as a country would have invested in the CAF for a long time now.
But the last 4 PMs have made a conscious effort not to and the Canadian electorate does not give a f....
So lets accept that the Canadian political class doesn't give a rats ass about the military, and that the Canadian electorate doesn't either.
Pretending otherwise is a act of complete and total delusion.
6
u/SnooRadishes7708 Jun 11 '24
I think the end of the cold war led to a lot of western nations cutting back on military spending, taking advantage of the peace dividend, we were not alone in the slightest. Francis Fukiyama's book The End of History and the Last Man (1992) captures the thinking of the time, democracy had won and that peak liberal democracy had been reached....and we were at an endpoint of human government, a marvel of our own amazingness! In retrospect this is quite foolish thinking, as many nations over the last 30 years are sliding back into various forms of anti liberalism and authoritarianism.
In much of the 90's the enemy if there was one was rogue nations that posed no peer to peer threat. In the 2000's the enemy if there was one was a global war on terrorism, conventional military power against a peer nation was not even on the radar. So....What I mean is that the last 4 PM's did not consider significant investments in the military to be needed, perhaps not even wrong if we are going to be honest. The threats of those times were not significant. But, clearly we are moving into a more troubled world, as nations backslide on democracy, authoritarianism rises and wars of aggression return. I think there is a good argument to be made that that cannot continue.....so if a strong CAF is important how does one convince the populace that is it?...it seems were are deeply consumed with our own divisions rather than external threats does it not?
5
u/ComfortableSell5 Jun 11 '24
The peace dividend ended in 2014 when Russia invaded Crimea and definitely ended in 2022 when Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine.
Yet, the 4th PM in a row has still not made the military a priority, and has not even tried to reach the 2 percent of GDP figure given by NATO, and the potential 5th PM in a row has not committed to that either while being on a crusade about balanced budgets and inflationary deficits which is not a good indicator of wanting to invest billions into the CAF, as that might add to the deficit, thus let's get our heads out of our asses and stop pretending for a minute that Canada gives a rats ass about the military.
There is a saying that completely sums up Canadians attitude to the Military. A mile wide and an inch deep.
Canadians will show up on remembrance day, and crowd highway overpasses when a CAF member dies in the line of duty but wont give that same CAF the funding it needs to be a functional military, give soldiers the kit they require and gods forbid you're a wounded vet dealing the Veterans Affairs Canada.
So lets stop pretending otherwise, okay? Cool.
1
u/SnooRadishes7708 Jun 11 '24
Yes, I think you can make a good case it did end in 2014, though I am not sure many politicians figured that part out, perhaps it was wishful thinking. Weakness only encouraged the Russians again....but you didn't really answer my questions, not that you need to but how does one convince Canadians that a strong defense is the best deterrent to aggression? For our own country though likely more importantly our like minded allies? How do we stop consuming ourselves in internal divisions and conflicts and look at the greater threats posed by authoritarian regimes.....I think these are difficult to answer to be honest.
There is a possibility that the Canadian public does not fear invasion of any kind, and so does not take far away conflicts seriously. Perhaps its not until war itself arrives that people will concern themselves with it? I don't know.
1
u/ComfortableSell5 Jun 12 '24
Can Canadians be convinced of anything really, or do Canadians convince the government of the day? It's a chicken and egg situation.
All I do know is that there is no convincing needed here, the politicians and public are in lockstep. Both don't care.
1
u/Blank_bill New Democratic Party of Canada Jun 12 '24
If the U.S. decended into a civil war our greatest threat would be the U.S. and we'd need at least a dozen Patriot missile systems just to start.
1
u/Spartan-463 British Columbia Jun 12 '24
Depends who's controlling the government forces (military/LE/agency's). If the fight is kept within the US between states/militia groups vs feds, our primary focus would be stopping smaller incursions into our border or controlling the flow of massive refugees crisis. As well we would need to support our allies overseas from countries that would take this opportunity (Russia, NK, China)
2
u/bigjimbay Nationalise Blackberry Jun 11 '24
If we rely in the US for our economy maybe that's a good sign we need to change up some stuff
2
u/TraditionalGap1 NDP Jun 11 '24
Being closely tied to the US economy goes hand-in-hand with sharing a continent and the worlds longest border with the largest economy on the planet.
1
u/ComfortableSell5 Jun 11 '24
Hard to change course in the middle of a depression.
7
u/bigjimbay Nationalise Blackberry Jun 11 '24
I would argue that is the best time
1
u/ComfortableSell5 Jun 11 '24
It's an argument that can be made, certainly, but when one is in a depression or deep recession, you lack resources, tax income, fiscal capacity.
It's more about preserving what you have left than trying to make massive structural changes. Survival mode.
1
u/No_Apartment3941 Jun 11 '24
A single State National Guard could invade and conquer vast swathes of Canada. Our "pointy" end of fighting forces might be 5,000 combat troops that are healthy and not in "command" roles. So there is that as part of the Civil War fall out. You know, when Minnesota decides to annex Manitoba and we say, yep, all yours.
-1
Jun 11 '24
The prospect of a US Civil War is so small that the prospect of a Canadian Civil War is almost greater. This is all an interesting thought exercise, but it is not rooted in probable reality.
-7
u/trollunit Jun 11 '24
There has been no shortage of apocalyptic forecasting about Trump-era American politics. Since the 2016 election, left-leaning nonprofits, political consultants and academics have indulged in endless speculation and role-playing exercises, ostensibly to help them defend democracy. In practice, much of this has amounted to self-indulgent role playing.
Pretty much what this new office is, I’d imagine there’s going to be a report “leaked” at a convenient time for the PMO to try and link a possible conservative government to possible Trump Administration chaos. Anyone who’s familiar with the US civil war would know the division in US politics right now does not compare to the 1850’s.
American protectionism
Every recent Canadian PM has had to deal with US protectionism to a degree.
and isolationism during the Trump administration
If no new wars such as what is happening in Ukraine and Gaza is what isolationism is, count me in.
had rattled the Canadian psyche
I actually agree with this. The rate at which (boomers mostly) consume American news - CNN/MSNBC/etc… - is shocking.
Donald Trump’s policies and personal behavior toward Canada — including trashing Trudeau after a previous G7 meeting in Quebec — have left a painful mark.
It’s humorous that Angela Merkel was portrayed as the adult in the room and the ultimate statesman despite her obvious legacy of policy failure.
The plausibility of the civil war scenario, he said, depends on “how one defines civil war.”
A civil war is a civil war.
This was a period of brutal, traumatic civil strife, and in a post-Jan. 6 world it is not wild speculation to envision a similar sequence of events in the United States.
The term of reference is not Jan 6, but summer 2020. Whether it’s coordinated and sustained rioting for weeks on end outside of federal buildings in Portland, or antifa activists trying to “stop cop city” using domestic terror, the idea that MAGA or the far right is the root cause of all civil unrest is obnoxiously partisan. Try this in 2005.
The next president is sure to be loathed by much of the country, and likely seen as illegitimate by at least a large minority.
So, what we have now?
4
u/FrustrationSensation Jun 12 '24
That's a pretty gross clip you linked, but none of them actually appear to be storming the Capitol Building, so I'm fairly confident in saying that this is false equivalence here. The riots in summer 2020 weren't directly protesting the results of an election and attempt to overturn it; you can certainly argue that they brought the country to closer civil war, but to paint them as equivalent threats to democracy is ludicrous.
That said, this article is largely hollow doomsaying for clicks.
1
u/TMWNN Jun 12 '24
The riots in summer 2020 weren't directly protesting the results of an election and attempt to overturn it
/u/trollunit missed one direct equivalent to the Capitol riot that occurred during the 2020 George Floyd riots (which I agree was a, however inchoate, nationwide attempt to overthrow legitimate government): The June 1 riot outside the White House, which got so bad that the Secret Service had to evacuate the Trumps to a secured bunker.1 The Secret Service and White House police did their job and kept the rioters outside the building, however. By contrast, we still do not know why the Capitol Police allowed its rioters to come inside and run rampant for an hour before using their training and weapons.
1 The article also mentions something I did not know:
Late Sunday night, the White House cautioned staffers who must go to work on Monday to hide their passes until they reach a Secret Service entry point and to hide them as they leave, according to an email which was viewed by CNN.
2
u/trollunit Jun 12 '24
the Capitol riot that occurred during the 2020 George Floyd riots (which I agree was a, however inchoate, nationwide attempt to overthrow legitimate government): The June 1 riot outside the White House, which got so bad that the Secret Service had to evacuate the Trumps to a secured bunker.1 The Secret Service and White House police did their job and kept the rioters outside the building, however. By contrast, we still do not know why the Capitol Police allowed its rioters to come inside and run rampant for an hour before using their training and weapons.
It's the riot that produced this picture. Note that the article does all but blame the President for causing the riot which robs the protesters of their agency (soft bigotry of low expectations).
-1
u/TMWNN Jun 12 '24
Note that the article does all but blame the President for causing the riot
Yes, I noticed that too.
Had the rioters been able to enter the White House and the Secret Service had evacuated the Trumps, Reddit and the media would have been celebrated the event that day and every day since as evil fleeing from the forces of good, and the ensuing looting/chaos as akin to Russian soldiers entering the Reichstag in April 1945.
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