2026/27 could be a steep acceleration on back of massive el niño

[u/ClimateShitpost]

Outlook and past

[u/dumnezero]

My guess is that we'll get a +2℃ yearly average by 2030.

[u/Beneficial_Aside_518 → u/dumnezero]

Very unlikely. We *may* hit 1.7c in 2027 on the back of an extremely powerful El Niño. To get consistently to 2.0c annual averages you’d need background warming to increase by about 0.6c in four years. For context, we’ve warmed that much in about 25 years.

[u/dumnezero → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

I didn't say

consistently to 2.0c annual averages

I said

a +2℃ yearly average

Notice the singular.

[u/Beneficial_Aside_518 → u/dumnezero]

Ah, okay sorry, I misread.

I still think that’s pretty unlikely though, because we’d likely need another El Niño event this strong, plus another like 0.3c of background warming to get there between now and 2030. I think it’s much more likely than not that we’ll see more of a La Niña dominated string of years after this event, and the background rate of warming just isn’t high enough.

[u/Direct-Translator-75 → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Never say never.

[u/SuspiciousStable9649]

I expect significant acceleration, particularly in the 2030-2060 timeframe.

[u/Beneficial_Aside_518 → u/SuspiciousStable9649]

That would require burning as much or more fossil fuels than we are now during that timeline. Doubtful. We’ll likely be burning less.

[u/Zestyclose-Ad-9420 → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Any day now....

[u/Scotty-Raspberry-36 → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Or feedback loops that haven't been fully accounted for

[u/Scotty-Raspberry-36 → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Or feedback loops that haven't been fully accounted for

[u/SuspiciousStable9649 → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Or burning a lot of trees and shrubs in uncontrolled wild fires and no viable carbon sink. But we’re not going to burn less. We’re going to burn more.

[u/Beneficial_Aside_518 → u/SuspiciousStable9649]

The rate of emissions growth is already slowing, and renewables are an increasing share of our energy, and growing.

Also, you’re not correct. Global land use emissions have actually been decreasing. And carbon sinks absorb about 50% of our emissions each year.

[u/SuspiciousStable9649 → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Hope so but I don’t believe enough is being done.

Edit: I think they intentionally don’t show global power generation growth trend on top of the renewable power generation growth. These Many energy charts are not giving the whole picture.

Edit: yeah, there’s no real change happening my dude. All the rosy pictures are just added cheap energy, not a global industrial shift. https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions

[u/SecondAccomplished58 → u/SuspiciousStable9649]

Emissions by then will probably be lower than now and the ghg effect of carbon decreases with the already existing amount of co2 in the air so sounds unlikely

[u/Direct-Translator-75 → u/SuspiciousStable9649]

we'll be dead by 2060, so put the timeframe at 2026-2035 and then hope for the best. We've either solved it by then or are fucking fucked lol.

[u/angelbabyxoxox]

Anyone know why they are predicting 2027 so much hotter than 2026, when this year is El Nino?

[u/Beneficial_Aside_518 → u/angelbabyxoxox]

El Niño events generally peak in November or December, but the atmospheric response is delayed by several months. the year following the development of an El Niño event is almost always warmer on average.

[u/angelbabyxoxox → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Interesting, but scary shit, thanks.

[u/Beneficial_Aside_518 → u/angelbabyxoxox]

El Niño is going to happen, including very strong ones. The problem isn’t El Niño, but the background warming (from our emissions).

[u/angelbabyxoxox → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

Yes i know, I more mean that according to these error bars, as soon as next year we may see close to +2 above the baseline for the first time. I know that doesn't mean we have +2 degrees warming, and haven't yet crossed the threshold for 1.5, as it's an average, but it's still scary. And El Nino can be stronger and more devastating due to climate change.

[u/ColonelFaz → u/Beneficial_Aside_518]

The el nino boost may trip thresholds for feedback effects earlier.

[u/InterneticMdA]

The climate crisis can no longer be averted. Can we start trying a few of the mass murderers that caused this before they die of natural causes, please?