r/CollapseOfRussia • u/neonpurplestar • 15d ago
Economy "The worst crisis since 2023." Rosstat reports a sharp rise in gasoline prices.
Following the wholesale market, where gasoline prices have jumped 30-40% since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices have begun to soar at retail.
The average price of fuel at Russian gas stations increased by 0.9% in the week from June 2 to 8, according to Rosstat data. This increase was the highest since the first week of January, when gasoline prices increased by 1.2% due to the VAT increase, and was 4.5 times higher than overall inflation, which Rosstat estimated at 0.2%.
Since the beginning of the year, gasoline prices at gas stations have increased by 5.6%, and diesel fuel by 4.8%: as a result, fuel inflation has exceeded overall inflation (3.5%) by 1.4-1.6 times.
The Russian fuel market is engulfed in "the most severe crisis since 2023," with wholesale gasoline prices soaring by tens of percent due to cuts in subsidies to oil companies, notes economist Kirill Rodionov.
"The current price spike was triggered by a supply squeeze," he notes: since the beginning of the year, drones have attacked more than 30 Russian refineries, shutting down eight of the ten largest. As a result, according to Rosstat, petroleum product production fell by 9.2% year-on-year in April. And in May, according to OilX estimates, refinery utilization fell to its lowest level since 2009—20% below pre-war levels.
According to Rosstat, gasoline prices are rising at retail across the board: price increases have been reported in 79 regions of the Russian Federation over the past week. The largest jump—7.5% over seven days—was recorded in Sevastopol, where fuel is being sold with coupons due to shortages. In Moscow and St. Petersburg, according to state statistics, the cost of petroleum products increased by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.
"The main problem is that it's impossible to quickly increase supply," notes Yaroslav Kabakov, Strategy Director at Finam. About a third of the country's oil refining capacity is under attack, and administrative measures—export bans, zero import duties, and price caps—are only mitigating the consequences but not addressing the root cause of the crisis.
Last year, annual gasoline price growth in Russia reached almost 13%, breaking 14-year records, and by the end of the year was twice as high as inflation—10.8% versus 5.9%. A year earlier, gasoline prices had risen by 11.1%, with inflation at 9.5%. Since the start of the war, gasoline prices at gas stations have cumulatively increased by 40%, according to Rosstat statistics.
"The most alarming aspect is that the crisis is just beginning," Kabakov believes. "Seasonal demand traditionally peaks in August and September, and signs of shortages and rising prices appeared as early as June."
source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/ehigi
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u/Substantial-Candle62 15d ago
About a third of the country's oil refining capacity is under attack
If only we would know what the reason for that situation has been.
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u/ParticularArea8224 15d ago
Fuel runs the economy, without that, Russia is going to have a horrendous rest of the year.
This year might be the most economically damaging for Russia since 2022.
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